Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 112102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
302 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A strong cold front is currently making its way across the
forecast area. West to northwest gusts in excess of 40 mph have
been occurring behind the front, especially in the downward
momentum surge immediately behind the front. These relatively
strong gusts will linger into at least midday Tuesday given the
strong CAA and tight surface pressure gradient behind the front.
The cold advection will help push tomorrow`s high temperatures 15
to 20 degrees cooler than those seen today.

Do not expect much precipitation in the wrap-around cloud shield
tonight behind the front, despite current radar indications. Much
of the energy within the upper-level wave driving the front is
shearing off to the east and the precipitation coverage/intensity
has been decreasing. However, a few sprinkles or flurries can`t be
ruled out through this evening.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Northwest upper-level flow will persist across the area into the
weekend. Our recent string of clipper-type waves within this flow
regime will persist, with the next waves expected to arrive around
Wednesday & Friday. However, as has been the case lately, minimal
precipitation is expected with these clippers locally.

The upper-level flow trends more zonal for the weekend. This may
eventually signal a trend toward more moderate temperatures than
we have seen lately. There is a short wave that will approach the
area from the west or southwest by late in the weekend as the
expected pattern shift occurs. However, the model consensus with
respect to the associated precipitation is poor and only have
minimal PoPs at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A strong cold front will cross the central Illinois terminals
later today, with winds shifting from southerly to northwesterly.
Gusty winds are anticipated through the period, especially in the
wake of the front. The passage of the front will also be
accompanied by a period of MVFR CIGS and possibly a few sprinkles
or flurries. Any precipitation is not expected to have much
impact on visibilities.




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