Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 012317
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
SPI AND DEC BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODEL DATA TAKES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES BUT WILL KEEP THE MORE LIKELY
AREAS OF RAIN AT SPI AND DEC FOR NOW WITH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
WITH VCSH OR NO MENTION OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SPI AND DEC WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING IN AROUND 3000-5000 FEET LATER THIS
EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST...THAT
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO SPI...DEC AND CMI
THU MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE LOWER CIGS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 8 TO 13 KTS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS ON THU.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH



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