Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 220842
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
342 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

High pressure centered over eastern NE will move east into the area
today. This will bring clear skies, dry weather and light winds.
Even with lots of sunshine today, highs are only expected to reach
into the upper 60s to around 70. GFS MOS guidance looks several
degrees too warm, while the NAM is too cool.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

An extended period of quiet weather throughout the remainder of the
forecast with high pressure building into and remaining in control
of the Midwest.  Surface ridge dominating much of the eastern half
of the CONUS and keeping the weather quiet and fair, with slowly
warming temps through the work week. Weak flow under the sfc high
becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts slightly
eastward.  Warming trend continues  with the thermal ridging over
the desert SW slowly advecting into the center of the country and
max temps are  just above normals by Thursday. A weak trof brings
some precip to the Plains Wednesday, but the ridge remains in place
and dry air eroding the activity before impacting Central Illinois.
In the extended, the GFS pushes some minor precip into the extreme
SE with an oddly evolving upper pattern beyond day 6.  ECMWF
remaining dry and energy aloft without significant flow seeming to
retrograde somewhat under a larger scale ridge.  Keeping the
forecast dry for next weekend until the models become a little more
cohesive with their solutions under the pattern shift.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Dry northerly
flow and subsidence following a weak shortwave trough passage
Sunday evening should produce mostly clear skies except for SCT-
BKN035-050 near the central IL/IN border until around 10Z. Winds
N-NW less than 8 kts until 23Z becoming light and variable as
surface high pressure drifts across the region. No fog expected
overnight due to drier air moving over the region in NNW winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.