Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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331
FXUS63 KILX 140745
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined swirl over
central Minnesota, with a trailing shortwave to near Omaha. This
wave will be pushing eastward today, but will have some difficulty
with any significant southward progress as the associated surface
boundary starts to get hung up in the upper flow. The tail end of
the RAP has the rain making it as far as Peoria by about 9 pm,
while the other high-resolution models have any showers and storms
in a decaying state by the time they arrive toward midnight or
later. Have continued with a mention of isolated showers/storms
over the far north tonight. Temperatures should be fairly close to
normal today, in the mid 80s, though Gulf moisture will start to
flow in and bring dew points up from where we`ve been enjoying
them the last couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Upper level ridge currently just east of the Rockies will edge
eastward through mid week. While temperatures will only creep
upward a couple degrees, a more steady surge of Gulf moisture will
bring dew points back to the 70s Tuesday-Thursday. Heat index
values currently look to stay below 100 degrees though. Late week
into the weekend, a series of shortwaves will help to knock down
the northern extent of the warm air dome, bringing conditions back
closer to what we`re expecting for today.

With the current system loitering in the general vicinity, scattered
showers and storms will be possible Tuesday, mainly north of I-72.
The main focus remains mid week, as a strong wave digs just east
of the Rockies early Wednesday and lifts into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Thursday. Leading wing of
showers/storms should spread from west to east across the CWA late
Tuesday night. Highest PoP`s still look to be Wednesday night
ahead of the cold front, with rain tapering from west to east
Thursday as the upper wave finally passes. While Friday looks dry,
model disagreement starts to pick up for the weekend with the
strength and timing of the next wave. The GFS is much stronger and
wetter due to a slower movement, showing widespread rain Saturday
and Saturday night, while the ECMWF keeps us dry as high pressure
drifts through the region. Will keep PoP`s fairly low during this
time frame due to the uncertainty.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Still looking for some potential ground fog across eastern
Illinois once again toward sunrise, although an increase in cloud
cover may help keep things from getting too low. Have maintained
some MVFR visibilities for a few hours at KCMI, but the remaining
sites are a bit more uncertain and have not included BR mention at
this time. Other than that, clouds should largely be at or above
5,000 feet today, arriving from KSPI-KCMI first as some
stratocumulus advects northward through 12Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart



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