Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 262355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
655 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

A cold front near I-72 will accelerate southward across southeast IL
by early this evening. Large MCS over central/ne MO and western IL
(west of PIA and SPI) will spread widespread showers and scattered
thundestorms eastward across central and east central/southeast IL
rest of this afternoon and then diminish and past east into IN by
early evening. Strongest part of line is a bow echo moving toward St
Louis metro and areas south, and to track eastward aross southern
IL. Severe thunderstorm watch til 7 pm for Scott, Morgan, Sangamon,
Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Clay counties. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms recently develop ahead of MCS in
moderaterly unstable warm sector south of I-72 with Capes 2000-2600
J/kg. Bulk shear is 30-38 kts so a few of these thunderstorms could
become strong to even severe with damaging winds and large hail.
Brunt of CWA should be dry by mid evening, but this will be short
lived. 999 mb surface low pressure over central KS to deepen to 993
mb as it moves into southeast Nebraska by Wed morning and pulls
frontal boundary back northeast toward southwest IL. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms to spread ne into central and southeast IL
overnight especially late tonight into Wed. Lows tonight range from
around 50F from Peoria and Bloomington north to around 60F in
southeast IL from I-70 south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Energy rounding base of upper-level low centered over central
Rockies will be our next weather maker starting early Wednesday.
While this system will bring periods of showers/storms to the area
into Thursday, the severe threat should stay south of the area given
mainly sub 1000 j/kg CAPE values, and modest bulk shear values (30-
35 kts).

A lull in the rainfall threat is anticipated later Thursday into
Friday as Wednesday`s system departs, and as southwestern U.S.
troffing reloads. The next in our recent series of disturbances will
arrive for the weekend, along with a renewed threat of
showers/storms. While there are still differences in the details of
the weekend system, it is still looking wet overall. The slow moving
weekend system will depart by early next week, bringing another lull
in the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend downward heading into midweek, but still
hang near seasonal normals. So, it appears we have seen the last of
the 80 degree highs for at least a week or two.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Area of showers and thunderstorms have exited southeast of DEC and
CMI as a cold front has pushed southeast of the Wabash river early
this evening. VFR conditions expected most of this evening over
central IL with broken to overcast mid level clouds and scattered
lower clouds. Breezy northeast winds over central IL behind cold
front to advect MVFR clouds (bases of 1-2.5k ft) over northern IL
sw into central IL by overnight and especially impact I-74 TAF
sites reaching BMI first around 06Z. A 996 mb surface low
pressure deepening over central KS to lift toward the NE/IA/MO
border Wed afternoon. This will pull the frontal boundary over
central MO and southern IL back northward into sw IL on Wed
afternoon. This to develop and spread showers and scattered
thunderstorms ne across central IL late tonight and Wed morning,
with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions expected. Then showers may
become more scattered Wed afternoon with a few thunderstorms still
possible. Breezy northeast winds tonight near 15 kts with gusts
18-24 kts to veer more southeast by Wed afternoon as warm front
approaches central IL.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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