Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 162349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
649 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

19z/2pm radar imagery continues to show a few lingering showers
across east-central Illinois: however, based on timing tools these
should exit into Indiana over the next couple of hours.  Elsewhere
around the KILX CWA, skies are partly to mostly cloudy and
temperatures are in the upper 70s and lower 80s.  Warm and dry
conditions are expected tonight as frontal boundary lifts northward
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.  Pressure gradient will tighten
between prevailing high extending from New England to the Gulf Coast
and the next approaching cold front over the Northern Plains
tonight.  As a result, brisk southerly winds gusting to between 20
and 25mph will keep temperatures unseasonably warm...with overnight
lows in the middle to upper 60s.

Most models are showing an area of WAA cloud cover skirting across
the area late tonight into Monday morning before skies clear across
the board by Monday afternoon. Given abundant sunshine and strong
southwesterly winds gusting to between 30 and 35mph, record high
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A shortwave is expected to eject rapidly ENE out of the storm system
over the Pacific Northwest today...arriving in the upper Mississippi
Valley Monday night. A cold front associated with this wave will
develop over the Plains and move southeastward toward Illinois by
Monday night...with central IL still firmly in the warm sector
through Monday night. On Tuesday, the front looks to push across the
central IL forecast area. As a result...conditions will remain warm,
humid, and breezy Monday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s,
dewpoints well into the 60s, and southwest winds 15-20 mph and some
higher gusts. Temperatures will begin to fall on Tuesday at least
for areas north of I-72...behind the cold front. Highs should range
from around 75 in Galesburg to 86 in Lawrenceville. This cold front
looks to be primarily dry with weak convergence and an absence of
upper level lift as the low passes by well to the north. The front
looks to stall out over southern IL Tuesday evening followed by some
overrunning precipitation forming Tuesday night ahead of another
wave tracking along the front. Models continue to disagree on exact
placement of this precipitation as of 12Z models but the range in
precipitation bands is from southern to central IL. Models feature a
bit better agreement with precipitation for Wednesday night
targeting the southeastern 2/3 of Illinois as another wave swings
through the area. Continued cooling Wednesday through Thursday as
highs range from 67 in Galesburg to 79 in Lawrenceville Wednesday
followed by 60s across the area Thursday.

Models feature a broad longwave trough moving through the
Mississippi Valley late in the week bringing dry and cooler weather
as it pushes the frontal zone off to the east.  This will be
followed by a zonal flow pattern setting up over the weekend
allowing a return to warmer conditions but apparently dry conditions
as the storm track remains to the north. Highs should be coolest on
Friday with low 60s, followed by a warming trend through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs. High cirrus
will move in this evening, but models suggest an area of lower
clouds around 4kft will move over the sites beginning late tonight
from the west and then move northeast out of the area during the
late morning hours. Then another area of high cirrus will be over
the sites during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly through
the period, with speeds increasing and becoming breezy this
evening as gradient tightens. When the lower clouds move in, the
breezy conditions could subside, but return in the morning as
things heat up during the day. Gust in the morning should be over
23kts with close to 30kts possible in the afternoon. Low level
winds will be strong again tonight, but LLWS criteria will not be
met given the breezy conditions on the sfc.


Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Record highs for Monday:

Charleston....... 88 (1950)
Decatur.......... 89 (1950)
Effingham........ 85 (1965)
Galesburg........ 87 (1950)
Jacksonville..... 89 (1964)
Lawrenceville.... 85 (1963)
Lincoln.......... 87 (1935)
Normal........... 86 (1938)
Peoria........... 86 (1950)
Springfield...... 86 (1964)
Urbana........... 87 (1950)


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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