Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 181633
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1133 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A cold front has moved through most of the area this morning with
only slightly cooler temperatures behind it. Partly cloudy skies
are expected for most of the area...with more clouds in the
southeast closer to some lingering precip in far southern IL. A
couple minor adjustments to the max temps... but otherwise the
forecast is doing well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Large MCS continues to push southeastward, with cooling cloud
tops to near -80C noted on infrared satellite east of St. Louis.
Line of storms that moved out of Missouri has started more of a
southeast push and will be clipping our CWA south of I-70 through
sunrise. Further north, mainly just getting some showers north of
I-70 to near Lincoln just before 3 am.

Scattered showers and storms will linger over the eastern CWA as
the actual frontal boundary passes during the morning hours, but
much of this should be out of the area by midday. Despite the
frontal passage, temperatures should still reach around 80 degrees
this afternoon, although drier air will be spreading in from the
northwest through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Broad upper trough will prevail over the Midwest into the
Tennessee Valley through mid week, as ridging builds west of the
Rockies. Periodic impulses dropping southeast along the upper flow
will bring isolated showers and storms across the northern CWA
both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. During the middle of the week,
the ridge is expected to break down into more of a zonal flow
across the U.S., with more substantial rain chances Thursday night
into Friday night. The GFS and ECMWF have some differences in the
strength of the waves coming eastward late week, with the
discrepancies amplifying as the weekend begins.

Temperatures in the broad trough will not be especially cooler,
with highs still in the 80s, but the northwest flow will keep dew
points in the 50s to lower 60s. A lobe of warm air will spread
eastward later in the week as the ridge breaks down, with
temperatures near 90 by Thursday, although the increase in clouds
late week should temperature the highs a bit more.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Main concerns will be in the first couple hours of the forecast,
as patches of MVFR and occasionally IFR ceilings linger behind the
convection that moved through earlier. These should move out as a
weak frontal boundary crosses the region this morning, switching
winds to the west-northwest. Some clearing is expected to take
place later in the afternoon, with skies mostly clear overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart



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