Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 151743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 1032 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Strong northerly component to this mornings winds behind the
front/boundary...ushering in some cooler air to counter the ample
sunshine across the region. Very little in the way of cloud cover
anticipated in the area today...and temps look to rise into the
low 40s in most locations. High pressure will continue to build
into the Midwest through the afternoon. Major updates are not
anticipated at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Quiet weather will continue across the area today as the upper level
trough moves off to the east and a high pressure ridge moves in
behind the trough from the west. Could have some slightly gusty
winds this morning with a tight gradient, but things diminish
quickly this afternoon as the ridge begins to loosen the gradient.
Winds will diminish more during the evening as the ridge is right
over the CWA around midnight. Skies should be mostly sunny to mostly
clear today through tonight, though some scattered mid and high
clouds will be possible this afternoon and into this evening, coming
down from the northwest. Temps will be cooler today than the past
several days, but will be right around normal for middle of Feb.
Overnight temps should be below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

A 516 dm 500 mb low near the Ontario and Quebec province line is
expected to deepen and track toward the MA coast by midnight tonight
and then eject ne into the Canadian Maritimes Thu/Fri. A warm
front develops and lifts northward across central IL during Thu
and into northern IL Thu night. Mostly sunny skies and milder
temperatures expected Thu, with highs ranging from the upper 40s
to near 50F from Bloomington and Terre Haute northeast, to the
upper 50s to near 60F sw of Springfield. Meanwhile a large/strong
upper level ridge from off the CA coast and ridging into the
northern Rockies, will shift eastward into the MS river valley
Friday. This will bring even warmer temperatures to IL as 850 mb
temps rise to 10-12C by Fri afternoon. Lows Thu night in the lower
30s ne of I-74 and upper 30s to near 40F sw CWA. Highs Friday
range from upper 50s to mid 60s with mildest readings sw of
Springfield. Lows Fri night of 40-45F which is a bit milder than
normal highs for mid Feb.

00Z forecast models continue to show a weak cutoff low just south of
AZ that ejects ne into NE AR by noon Sat, into the TN river valley
by sunset Sat and into the central Appalachians by midnight Sat
night. Most models keep light qpf south and southeast of CWA on Sat
and think any isolate light rain showers will be south of I-64.
Though southeast IL will see more clouds on Sat along with a bit
cooler temperatures. Still a very mild day in the low to mid 60s,
with mildest readings from Springfield west and some cities
approaching record highs from I-55 west. As weak upper level low
pulls away from the TN valley, upper level ridge builds back into IL
on Sunday providing more sunshine and unseasonably mild highs in the
60s. Expect 60s again on Monday with SW CWA approaching 70F and
possibly nearing record highs again. We have not had this long of a
stretch with highs in the 60s since Nov 14-18th.

Most models continue to keep central and southeast IL dry on Monday
expect for some light qpf nw of the IL late Monday afternoon. Clouds
to increase from the west on Monday as a weakening front approaching
IL. Models continue to split two cutoff lows with one passing north
of the Great Lakes early next work week and a southern stream cutoff
low near the Rio Grande Valley by Texas/Mexico border. So best lift
will be north and south of IL. Have chances of rain showers
spreading east of the IL river during Monday night and continue
across area on Tue though looks like showers could be more isolated
during this time. A bit cooler Tue but still well above normal highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with mid 60s from highway 50 south.

CPC`s 8-14 day outlook for Feb 22-28th has 65% chance of above
normal temperatures and 40-45% chance of above normal precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

High pressure ridge axis drifting across the Midwest overnight
will result in some light and variable winds. Cirrus
dominates...with some mid level clouds possible after midnight to
the NE. Winds shift to more southerly on the other side of the
ridge. Quiet weather and VFR for now...but will be watching both
the crossover temps this afternoon as well as the wind fields. So
far, even light winds too high to promote any vis drops.


Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Record highs Friday Feb 17th...
Peoria........ 64
Lincoln....... 63
Springfield... 68
Champaign..... 69
Bloomington... 64
Decatur....... 64
Danville...... 71
Galesburg..... 60
Charleston.... 72
Effingham..... 68

Record highs Saturday Feb 18th...
Peoria........ 63
Lincoln....... 63
Springfield... 65
Champaign..... 65
Bloomington... 63
Decatur....... 70
Danville...... 67
Galesburg..... 63
Charleston.... 68
Effingham..... 70

Record highs Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71
Lincoln....... 71
Springfield... 70
Champaign..... 68
Bloomington... 70
Decatur....... 66
Danville...... 70
Galesburg..... 63
Charleston.... 72
Effingham..... 70

Record Highs Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68
Lincoln....... 70
Springfield... 74
Champaign..... 71
Bloomington... 67
Decatur....... 70
Danville...... 70
Galesburg..... 64
Charleston.... 73
Effingham..... 68




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