Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
352 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Strong high pressure will slide off the east coast today as a
weather system develops in the western plains. A pseudo warm front
has developed just west of the area and radar is showing that warm
air advection precip has already begun to develop in eastern MO.
Models agree that precip will continue to increase into this
morning, but differ on how extensive it will become. NAM and ECMWF
have very little precip while the GFS is a little more extensive
with its coverage, but all agree that western areas of the CWA is
where pops should be highest with eastern areas probably not seeing
any precip at all. So will keep chance pops going this morning, but
diminish the eastern extent of coverage. Then will have diminishing
pops during the afternoon hours as the best forcing lifts to the
north. Drier air returns this evening so dry weather expected
through the night as best forcing is well north of the CWA and the
main low pressure of the system continues to deepen out west. Winds
will remain southeasterly through the day with some gusts to around
25mph. Winds will become more southerly tonight with wind speeds
remaining around 10-15mph. Temps today will be warmer than yesterday
with warmest temps in the west where some sun should be able to work
into the area during the afternoon. The continued warm air advection
tonight will hold temps up, remaining nearly steady or falling only
a few degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A breezy and mild day expected Friday with partly to mostly
cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 70s, warmest in western CWA
along and west of I-55. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
west of a Peoria to Jacksonville line late Friday afternoon. So most
areas will likely stay dry through the day Friday.

A vigorous upper level trof digging into CA early this morning will
develop a strong cutoff upper level low near the southern CO/KS
border by sunrise Friday, and move east into the Ozarks by sunrise
Sat. Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely
spread eastward across areas west of I-57 during Friday evening and
overspread eastern IL overnight Fri night. Widespread showers along
with some thunderstorms expected across the area Sat with plenty of
cloud cover. Isolated thunderstorms will continue Sat evening then
be confined to areas near the IN border overnight Sat night as
weakening upper level low moves into central IL by early Sunday
morning. SPC has marginal risk of severe thunderstorms far sw CWA
Sat afternoon/evening from Jacksonville to Olney sw. Mild lows Fri
night in the mid to upper 50s which is close to normal highs for
late March. Still mild Sat with highs in the mid to upper 60s, with
lower 60s from Peoria north.

Weakening upper level low lifts into central IN and nw Ohio by
sunset Sunday and keeps a fair amount of clouds over central IL
along with lingering chances of showers with highest pops over
eastern and ne CWA. A bit cooler highs Sunday in the lower 60s in
central IL and mid 60s southeast of I-70.

Dry conditions return briefly during most of Sunday night with just
isolated showers sw of Jacksonville late Sunday night. Then a good
chance of showers spreads ne across central IL during Monday as next
upper level trof moves toward the mid MS river valley by Mon
evening, with shower chances continuing Monday night. Have isolated
thunderstorms on Monday into early Monday evening south of I-72.
Highs Mon range from lower 60s nw of the IL river, to around 70F in
southeast IL.

Dry conditions expected from Tue through Wed morning as Canadian
high pressure ridge ridges southward across the western Great Lakes
and toward IL by dawn Wed. Highs Tue and Wed in the upper 50s and
lower 60s over central IL and mid 60s in southeast IL as skies
become partly sunny by Tue afternoon.

Another strong storm system ejects into the central plains on Thu
and models differ on timing and position of this storm system.
Stayed close to consensus from Wed afternoon on, with small
chances of showers Wed afternoon sw of I-74, then higher chances
of showers later Wed night into Thu. Highs Thu in the upper 50s
and lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected this forecast period, although cigs
will drop to low VFR (3500-4000ft) tomorrow morning as isolated
showers track over west central IL. The threat for showers will
gradually work their way north during the afternoon and out of our
area by early evening. Coverage of any rain tomorrow looks too
isolated at this point to mention much more than VCSH. One the
showers move north of the area late tomorrow afternoon or early
evening, mainly high level cloud cover is expected across the
forecast area. LLWS potential will increase across the area after
03z as southerly winds increase to 45 kts at the 2000 foot level.

Surface winds tonight will remain out of the east at 8 to 15 kt
range with winds veering more into the southeast at 12 to 17 kts
with gusts around 20 kts at times tomorrow afternoon through
tomorrow evening.





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