Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230739
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A high pressure ridge in the mid levels today will continue to bring
clear skies. With high pressure at the surface now centered over the
eastern Ohio River Valley region, southeasterly to southerly winds
will develop to around 6-12 mph by afternoon, along with occasional
gusts 10-20 mph. The stronger winds will be toward western IL. With
moisture still relatively dry today (dewpoints near 50), highs
reaching the low to mid 80s will continue to feel relatively mild.
The warmer mid 80s will be generally west of I-57 where stronger
southerly flow advects warmer air from the south into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Upper level pattern has begun its transition to a flow more out of
the southwest, as the ridge overhead breaks down through the day.
This will lead to a more humid air mass moving in beginning on
Tuesday. With a frontal boundary becoming nearly stationary not too
far to the north, periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur
most of the week, although tonight should be largely dry except late
in the far west.

Main concern will be the potential for any strong to severe
thunderstorms through the period. While CAPE values increase
nicely across the western CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, 0-6km bulk
shear values are expected to only be around 25-30 knots,
suggesting more of an environment conducive to pulse-type
strong/severe storms. There is also some uncertainty as to the
influence on any previous convection in terms of boundaries or
ability to clear out enough to help destabilize the atmosphere.
Some indications also are seen on the ECMWF of one or more MCS
systems late in the week, especially Thursday night with the
stationary front much closer to us.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Quiet/VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois
terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Winds will trend
southeasterly with time as high pressure slowly pulls away from
the area. Cloud cover should be minimal, mainly limited to thin
cirrus.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...BAK


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