000
FXUS63 KILX 261107
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
507 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Latest surface analysis indicating weak high pressure centered from
central lower Michigan southwest through northeast Missouri. Our
next weather system was already producing some light snow across
parts of central Minnesota...which was tracking southeast early this
morning. The main short term forecast concern will be with this weak
upper level system that will track across our area today and the
precip chances with it.

Models have trended a bit further south and west with the upper wave
along with the fairly compact area of lift associated with it.
Forcing in the 700-500 mb layer compact but short lived with this
system and based on the latest HRRR and RAP solutions, it appears
the threat (20-30 POPs) for light snow will track southeast into our
area later this morning and then shift into east central Illinois by
this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings have all trended a
bit deeper with the moisture with this system and cold enough to
support light snow except over far southwest Illinois where there
may be a mix of rain and snow for a few hours as surface temps rise
into the middle 30s.

Despite the decent low to mid level forcing with this wave, QPF
amounts will be light with any snow accumulations of less than an
inch. As the better forcing shifts off to our east, we start to lose
the ice crystals in the upper levels of the clouds that would support
mainly light snow. Nam time-height cross sections showing some very
weak lift tracking thru the area late this afternoon in the 925-850
mb layer so not the greatest setup for freezing drizzle but will
need to be watched later this afternoon and evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Elongated short wave will gradually shift east of IL by dawn Tue
with light snow chances shifting east of IL into Indiana. Low clouds
will be slow to clear from the west Tue with mostly cloudy skies
generally prevailing with IL river valley having better chance of
becoming partly sunny during Tue afternoon. Seasonable highs in the
mid to upper 30s Tue with north winds 8-15 mph. Low clouds to
continue to decrease Tue night as weak surface high pressure ridge
sets up over IL by Tue evening. Lows Tue night in the low to mid
20s.

Upper level ridging into IL Wed will give partly to mostly sunny
skies, while 1005 mb surface low pressure moving east into the
central plains Wed to give breezy sse winds of milder air into the
region with highs in the 40s Wed (ranging from lower 40s ne counties
to near 50F from Jacksonville sw. Low pressure to move east across
central IL during Wed night and bring a chance of light rain with
lows staying above freezing in the mid to upper 30s. Light rain
chances to diminish from west to east during Thu and could see light
snow chances too over northern counties before ending as cooler air
arrives on back side of low pressure moving into the southern Great
Lakes region. Highs Thu range from upper 30s to near 40F IL river
valley to upper 40s in southeast IL.

Dry conditions and cooler temps return to central/se IL from Thu
night thru Fri night as high pressure settles into the ohio river
valley by Friday evening. Highs Fri back to seasonable levels for
late Jan in the mid to upper 30s. Continued slight chances of light
snow Sat and Sat night as cold front moves through. A cutoff upper
level low in the sw states late this week will move east and keeps
brunt of its qpf south of central IL, though some models have us on
northern edge of ligher qpf this weekend. Also have a northern
stream clipper system moving through the Great Lakes Sat and Sat
night that drives a cold front through IL. May need to increase
chances of light snow this weekend, though timing issues and also
question if any phasing can take place bettern stronger southern
stream system and weakern northern stream short wave. Also southern
areas could see a mix of precipitation on Sat before colder air
arrives Sat night. MEX/GFS appears too warm with temps behind cold
front Sun/Mon and oddly doesn`t cool it off much from Sat. ECWMF/ECE
model cools off much more Sun/Mon. Did not go as cold as this model,
but have temps dropping from highs in upper 30s/near 40F Sat to
upper 20s/lower 30s Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Next weather system quickly tracking southeast out of Minnesota
this morning and will begin to affect our area after 15z this
morning with lower cigs and a period of -SN that may restrict
vsbys for a brief time as well. After that, forecast soundings
indicate as the system that brings the scattered light snow
to the area today moves away, we will lose the ice crystals
needed to support light snow with the threat for some freezing
drizzle late this afternoon and especially this evening. Not
very confident on the freezing drizzle at this point so will
not include in the 12z forecast but something to watch for
in later forecasts.

MVFR cigs still linger at DEC and CMI but based on latest
satellite data, they were very close to the backedge of the clouds
and will probably scatter the lower cigs out with VFR cigs
thereafter until early afternoon when all areas will see cigs
lower to MVFR with local IFR cigs in the areas of light snow. For
now, will include a tempo group for light snow only at PIA and BMI
this afternoon with VCSH for the remainder of the TAF sites. Look
for MVFR and occasional IFR cigs to prevail into the evening
hours.

Surface winds will be out of the south at around 10 kts today
with a wind shift into the northwest later this evening with
speeds tonight at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith