Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 170310
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
910 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front was lifting slowly
north across the forecast area early this evening. As of 8PM, the
front was located north of Peoria and Bloomington with temperatures
to the north of the boundary mainly in the mid to upper 30s, while
to the south of the front, temperatures were ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s. Just to give you an idea of how warm the air
mass is out to our west, afternoon temperatures across northern
Missouri, southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas soared well into
the 70s accompanied by a gusty southwest wind. As was the case
today when Peoria tied the record high of 60 degrees, we should
see several locations tie or break record highs through the
weekend and even into the start of next week as the unseasonably
mild weather pattern holds over much of the central U.S.

Not many changes made to the grids this evening other than the
usual adjustments to the hourly temperature forecasts. With a
southerly wind holding across most of the area through the
night coupled with some high level cloud cover, temperatures
won`t be falling off much further for the rest of the night. As
a result, no ZFP update will be needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

High pressure continues to dominate the weather map across much of
the Plains and Midwest this afternoon. However, a weak warm front
continues to move through the region this afternoon, and southerly
winds usher in warmer temperatures.  The warm temperatures are part
of a longer warming trend, and tonights lows will remain above
freezing for Central Illinois.  For tomorrow...another day of sun
and warm winds out of the south will bring the max temps up into the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Central and southeast Illinois can expect well above normal
temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period. In fact,
forecast nighttime lows over the next week are generally above
normal daytime highs for the same period.

There does not appear to be a significant precipitation risk during
the period. Even if there were, it would certainly fall in the form
of rain. The mean upper-level flow remains split for most of the
period, with the better northern stream energy staying to our
north, and better southern stream energy staying to our south. The
best chances for rain at this point look to be Tuesday into
Wednesday, but even then most of the rainfall appears likely to miss
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. We
continue to see bkn-ovc cirrus streaming southeast into the
forecast area early this evening and that will continue
overnight as well. The main forecast challenge will be the
threat for borderline LLWS with the main concern being from
directional shear. Surface winds will be mainly from a
southerly direction at 8 to 14 kts tonight with winds around
2000 feet ranging from 240-270 degrees at around 40 kts.
Latest short term models continue to suggest this threat
overnight so will continue with the LLWS in the 00Z TAFs
until around 14 or 15z Friday. Surface winds for the
rest of Friday should be south to southwest at 12 to 17
kts.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record highs Friday Feb 17th...
Peoria........ 64
Lincoln....... 63
Springfield... 68
Champaign..... 69
Bloomington... 64
Decatur....... 61
Danville...... 71
Galesburg..... 60
Charleston.... 72
Effingham..... 68

Record highs Saturday Feb 18th...
Peoria........ 63
Lincoln....... 63
Springfield... 65
Champaign..... 65
Bloomington... 63
Decatur....... 70
Danville...... 67
Galesburg..... 63
Charleston.... 68
Effingham..... 70

Record highs Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71
Lincoln....... 71
Springfield... 70
Champaign..... 68
Bloomington... 70
Decatur....... 66
Danville...... 70
Galesburg..... 63
Charleston.... 72
Effingham..... 70

Record Highs Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68
Lincoln....... 70
Springfield... 74
Champaign..... 71
Bloomington... 67
Decatur....... 70
Danville...... 70
Galesburg..... 64
Charleston.... 73
Effingham..... 68

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith
CLIMATE...07



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