Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KILX 191024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
524 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A couple small areas of showers have been moving southeast across
the region early this morning. The first one has reached
Bloomington as of 2 am and earlier produced some wind gusts to
near 25 mph at Peoria, while the second one was in southeast
Iowa approaching the Mississippi River. These were being triggered
by some weak impulses zipping along in the northwest flow aloft.
Additional impulses were visible in water vapor imagery from North
Dakota into western Minnesota early this morning, and will help
trigger some additional convection toward midday into the
afternoon hours. Best chances will be a bit further north, but
will include isolated storms over most areas from about
Jacksonville-Paris northward. These should fade off early evening
with loss of daytime heating. Not expecting much in the way of
rain with these storms, as forecast soundings are quite dry below
about 5,000 feet and surface dew points will generally only be in
the mid 50s at the time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

As the northwest flow persists into Tuesday, a sharper wave will
be swinging across the Great Lakes. This should push a frontal
boundary southward into northern Illinois by early Tuesday
afternoon, although the evening models try to wash it out to some
extent by evening. Additional isolated storms are possible with
this boundary Tuesday afternoon into evening, with Wednesday
largely dry as weak high pressure drifts across the Great Lakes.

The upper level ridge over the western U.S. will begin to break
down on Tuesday, allowing for some more significant troughing
over Canada to push southward into the northern states Wednesday
night and much further south late week. Both the GFS and ECMWF
show a southward surge into the mid Mississippi Valley by early
Sunday, helping to cool things off. In the meantime, the warm air
mass over the West will will be spreading eastward during the
middle week, with 850 mb temperatures approaching 20C over our
area by early Thursday. Surface temperatures expected to peak near
90 on Thursday, before slowly easing off. A cold front will
approach from the northwest on Thursday, before hanging up from
about Nebraska to northern Indiana as it becomes parallel to the
upper level flow. Rain chances will increase from the north
Thursday night, and linger over the southern CWA through Friday
night. Weekend rain chances are more uncertain, with the ECMWF
taking a more northern track to this system and the GFS closer to
the Ohio Valley. However, 30-40% PoP`s appear reasonable at this


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Diurnal clouds should
be most prevalent from about KPIA-KCMI, where a fast moving
disturbance may also trigger some isolated convection this
afternoon. However, coverage is not expected to be high enough to
go with more than a VCTS mention at the moment. Some decent mixing
will allow winds to gust to around 20 knots or so from around
midday into the afternoon, but these should settle down with loss
of daytime heating.




SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.