Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Current forecast looks on track with mostly clear skies across the
area and light northerly winds. Did make some minor changes to
overnight temps and raised them only a degree in the east.
Otherwise not changes to forecast. Will be sending an update, even
with minor changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Quiet weather expected tonight as high pressure, at the surface and
aloft builds into the region. The scattered cumulus clouds that
developed during the afternoon should quickly dissipate this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. A few of our more favored cold
spots may drop into the upper 40s by Sunday morning with most of the
forecast area seeing early morning lows in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Pleasantly warm temperatures will dominate our Sunday and Monday
as high pressure slowly pushes off to our east. 850 temperatures
forecast by most of the models on Monday and Tuesday indicate
afternoon highs should rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s
tomorrow afternoon with all of our area enjoying the lower 80s
Monday afternoon.

Models continue a slowing trend with respect to shower and
thunderstorm chances Monday night with our western areas seeing
the better threat, especially late in the evening and overnight.
Medium range models continue to advertise a rather active but
typical late May pattern for central Illinois starting Tuesday with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least part of
the upcoming holiday weekend. Models depicting several low amplitude
waves ejecting northeast from the main longwave trof over the
western U.S. for the middle and latter portion of the week. Timing
of these waves is still a rather low confidence forecast at this
point with respect to generating convection and its affect on
temperatures and future development of showers and storms along a
stalled frontal boundary out to our west. It still appears the
best chance for more widespread showers and storms in our area
will be on Wednesday with surface based capes of 2500-3000 J/KG
and 0-6km bulk shear of around 25 kts, certainly enough to produce
more organized and possibly severe storms in parts of our area
during the day. In addition, models indicate precipitable water
values of around 1.50 inches, indicating a threat for heavy
rainfall over parts of the Midwest, especially closer to where the
surface boundary sets up during the week.

Models continue to hint at some weak shortwave ridging on Thursday
in the wake of the mid-week disturbance which may bring a lull in
thunderstorm chances, but confidence on that scenario working out
this far out in time is quite low. With the longwave trof positioned
out to our west and the surface boundary forecast to edge slowly into
parts of Iowa and Wisconsin by the end of the week, periods of
showers and storms will continue through this forecast period with
temperatures expected to average above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
pressure ridge west of the state will slowly move east over the
next 24hrs. As a result, winds will remain northerly through the
period, becoming light for tonight and then increasing slightly
during the day tomorrow. Clouds around 9kft over SPI and DEC will
be south of the sites by beginning TAF time and other clouds over
the sites will dissipate this evening, so mostly clear skies will
be the rule next 24hrs.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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