Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171146
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Upper level low/trof continues to evolve over NE United States/SE
Canada. This evolution will result in two cold frontal passages
today across the forecast area. The first front is currently
crossing the forecast area, and is accompanied by little more than a
wind shift. The second front, driven by a vigorous wave currently
moving through the upper Midwest, will move through the area this
afternoon. While this front is not expected to produce any rainfall
locally, it will be accompanied by fairly solid cloud cover, gusty
northwest winds, and cooler temperatures. Lowered high temperatures
a bit from previous forecast, especially across the north, to
account for cloud cover and cold advection pushing in for the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Prev big low that has kept the Midwest in plenty of clouds and light
rain for much of the week is moving out to the NE. New shortwave
bringing a weak sfc boundary that is barely a shift of winds with
some cooler air diving into the Midwest. Ridge building in for the
weekend and the forecast remains dry with highs in the 50s and a
chilly Sunday morning. Next chance for precip very small and in
response to another wave moving into the Upper Midwest late
Sunday/Monday. In fact, the ECMWF is the only model persistent with
this feature actually pushing any QPF.  The GFS and NAM have the
wave, but remains dry this far south.  Weak southerly flow and cloud
cover will make Sunday night a little warmer than Sat night. Better
precip chances will be further to the east.  That being said, silent
slight chances on Mon remain the only precip in the forecast.  Sfc
ridging continuing through the remainder of the week and
temperatures remain just below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Cold front will begin to cross the central Illinois terminal area
by midday. This front is expected to be accompanied by gusty
northwest winds and low-end VFR cigs. Much of the post frontal
cloud deck upstream is currently MVFR, but there should be enough
sun locally ahead of the clouds to help raise them to VFR heights
before arrival.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Bak






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