Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 280830
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
ISSUED 257 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014
High pressure slowly building into the Midwest behind the exiting
storm system making its way into the Northeast today. Northerly
winds today and a bit breezy, though less so than yesterday.
Cooler high temperatures after a cool start this morning...highs
well below normal. Main issues for the forecast are few as the
atmosphere sets up into a northwesterly flow pattern for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures with northwesterly flow aloft
dependent on the location of the ridge axis...slowly moderating as
the northerly flow lightens...and temps get more of an influence
from the sunshine. That being said...not much of a change through
the week overall and max temps remain below normal through the
forecast. With the trof parking over the eastern half of the
country and northwesterly/some cyclonic curve to the flow aloft,
chances will begin to increase for some instability showers
towards the end of the week.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Cooler and breezy with northerly winds ushering in temperatures
well below normal. Time heights showing some low level moisture
and cu rule putting a substantial cu deck over much of the FA,
further inhibiting any warm up. Tonight, still quiet, clearing and
cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 50s. Tomorrow is
almost a simple rerun of today with the temperatures just a couple
degrees higher and the winds more northwesterly. Models are
beginning to show some afternoon showers to the northeast...and
have kept some slight pops in...though coverage is expected to be
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Continued below normal temps and northwesterly flow with some
small impulses possibly diving into the trof over the eastern
CONUS. Between the short waves and diurnally driven instability
showers, pops start to show up particularly for the afternoon and
early evening hours. Models continue to enhance this activity on
Thursday night and into Friday as the impulses start moving into
the west coast and trying to break down the ridging to the west.
Models beginning to signal the progression of the deep trof out of
the region for late Sunday and into Monday...which would mean a
return to warmer conditions.
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Scattered clouds are dropping south through northern IL as the as
the upper level trough slowly slides to the east. These scattered
clouds are at varying levels, but seem to be around 4kft. So will
have all sites starting as scattered 4kft overnight. Additional CU
will develop tomorrow as well so will be keeping scattered clouds
at all sites through the day, though heights will be little higher
than now. Then skies should clear tomorrow evening. Winds will be
west to northwest overnight around 8-10kts, then pick up a little
tomorrow out of the north-northwest. As ridging builds into the
area tomorrow evening, winds will be light and variable.