Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Issued at 904 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The cold front progression has reached near a line from
Springfield to Champaign. The only changes associated with the
front will be a wind shift from SW winds to NW winds over the next
4 to 5 hours, and some decrease in dewpoint and air temperatures
through tomorrow. Overnight low temps look to settle out in the
low to mid 40s, based on nearby upstream temps/dewpoints.

Dry air in place ahead and behind the front have led to no precip
development, and that will be the case the rest of the night as
the front progresses south of our counties by sunrise.

Little to no cloud cover will continue through tomorrow, under
advancing high pressure. No formal updates will be needed this
evening to the forecast info.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Cold front currently crossing the Mississippi River into west-
central Illinois will swing through the area late this afternoon
into the evening.  Extremely dry airmass ahead of the boundary will
ensure a dry and cloud-free FROPA.  Once the front passes, winds
will veer to the northwest tonight, then to the north-northeast on
Monday.  Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle
40s...while highs on Monday reach the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Canadian high pressure area will sit across the Great Lakes region
Monday night and Tuesday with dry and cooler weather. Out in the
western plains a system will be developing and have a warm front
that will extend toward the area. Models have sped up the onset of
precip in the CWA, so now will have a chance of showers in extreme
northwest part of Knox county. The chance of precip will move east a
little bit but still remain northwest of the Illinois river late
Tues night. The main threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
Wednesday through Wednesday evening. The front will move east
through the area quickly and should be east of the state by Thursday
morning. Then dry weather will be seen Thursday through Friday. As
the pattern begins to change for late in the week and next weekend,
models begin to differ on the surface features, where two models
have a front sliding through the area, and another model has a front
north of the area. So, very different outcomes for late in the week.
For now, will stick with the blend of models and have a chance of
showers in the north and northeast parts of the CWA for Friday night
through Sat night.

Seasonable temps are to be expected through the forecast period,
though Friday will be the warmest. Overnight lows will still remain
in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The cold front will continue to push south through central IL this
evening. No precip will occur during the FROPA, due to the dry
air mass ahead of the front. The strong wind gusts of this
afternoon have subsided, and sustained winds should dip below 10kt
in the next hour or two. Wind directions will make a steady shift
from W-SW to NW this evening once the front passes. Winds will
become NE by sunrise and increase to 8-12kt during daytime mixing.
Little to no cloud cover is expected over the next 24 hours.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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