Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 202004
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along and nw of a
Chicago to Peoria to Quincy line ahead of a cold front over central
IA. SPC has slight risk of severe storms nw of I-70 from mid
afternoon into mid evening with 15% risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail along with 2% risk of tornadoes. Breezy sw winds have
brought in moist dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F while
temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. Atmosphere has become
unstable with CAPES of 1500-2500 J/kg and could get as high as
2500-3000 j/kg from Springfield wsw late this afternoon and early
evening. Bulk shear of 35-40 kts from Lincoln northward to combine
with unstable airmass to support slight risk of severe storms. Cold
front to push se across central IL tonight and move into southeast
IL early Sunday morning. Will continue higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms tonight and gradually lower pops over central IL from
the nw later this evening and overnight as cold front passes by.
Lows tonight to range from the upper 50s nw over IL river valley, to
the mid 60s in southeast IL.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quiet weather pattern expected thru most of the extended period as
the deep upper trof that brings the cool weather to start the work
week shifts off to the northeast as upper level ridging builds over
the center of the nation. Upper trof the moves into the western U.S.
later tonight and Sunday slowly shifts east across the central Plains
with its associated precip shield. However, as it moves east of the
Missouri River valley Wednesday, longer range models continue to
amplify the ridge over the central portion of the country. The large
surface high pressure area that brought the cool weather early in
the period will have quite a bit of dry air associated with it so
most models show a decrease in precip coverage to our west as the
weakening trof approaches our area late in the week. As a result, will
continue to keep precip out of the extended forecast with a gradual
warming trend during the second half of the week where temperatures
will actually be above normal starting on Thursday.

&&


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A cold front over central IA will push into nw IL late this
afternoon and push into se IL by early Sunday morning. Radar
mosaic shows showers and a few thunderstorms along and north of
I-80 over northern IL into se IA. Will have chance of showers and
thunderstorms moving into PIA from 19Z- 22Z to BMI 20Z- 23Z and
I-72 TAF sites at 21-24Z. Have MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible
with convection and could locally be lower in heavier rains.
Continue VCSH this evening with broken clouds of 4-5k ft then
scattering out toward overnight. Have scattered to broken clouds
of 3-4k ft spreading southward into central IL after 15Z/10 am
Sunday. Breezy sw winds 12-16 kts with gusts 20-25 kts to turn
west at 6-10 kts tonight and then breezy NW winds 13-17 kts with
gusts 20-25 kts developing during Sunday morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...07



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