Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241525
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
ALREADY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS AREA IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS ROUGHLY ALONG
A MACOMB TO WATSEKA LINE AT 10 AM. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START TO
OVERTAKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BYPASSING US THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. THE LARGER RAIN
SHIELD WAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...TIED IN WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX
OVER WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A SECOND MCV WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WERE
INCREASING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THEY
SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PRECIPITATION TIMING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. IN THE WEST...LIKELY POP`S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WEST OF I-55...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN I-55 AND I-57 LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH TRYING TO TIME WHEN PCPN WILL BE
AT THE TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. THINGS WILL BEGIN DRY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS AROUND 7KFT AT ALL SITES. MODELS THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON FROM THE WEST AND THEN
MOVE THEM EASTWARD. PIA AND SPI WILL BEGIN FIRST AROUND
18Z...FOLLOWED BY DEC AND BMI AROUND 19Z...AND THEN CMI LAST AT
20Z. ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVE RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WITH
THE PCPN WILL BE MVFR AT ALL SITES BUT THEN RETURN TO VFR THIS
EVENING. WHEN PCPN RETURNS TOWARD TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
RETURN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO LITTLE MORE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. PCPN WILL PROBABLY END SOMETIME
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE END OF TAF PERIOD...BUT DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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