Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 021800
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR SKY COVER AND SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM I-70
SOUTH WITH HEAVIER RAINS JUST SOUTH OF CLAY...RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER WITH 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER. HIRES MODELS TAKE WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF EVANSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
IL INTO TONIGHT WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF CHARLESTON/MATTOON
UP TO ALONG I-72. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY AND SEE
MORE SUNSHINE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF
I-70 FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF KY/MO
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BETTER INSTABLITY IS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN CWA
AND MORE HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-5K FT WITH BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...BUT
TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT SPI...DEC AND
CMI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO TO NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF IL/IN WILL STAY SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL
THROUGH FRI KEEPING NE WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. NE WINDS
8-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO 5-8 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND
CONTINUE FRI MORNING. NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS AT CMI AND DEC EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THESE CLOUDS REACHING WESTERN
AIRPORTS OF PIA/SPI BY LATE EVENING. CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07



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