Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 012000
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THE
CLEARING TREND.  19Z/2PM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF A PARIS
TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.  HRRR SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE NO BREAKS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED.  HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THANKS TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74 TO THE MIDDLE
50S FAR SOUTH AROUND FLORA AND OLNEY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CUT OFF AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL IL
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID 70S WILL RISE TO THE LOW 80S BY
THURSDAY. BY LATER THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDWEEK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AFTER THIS FEATURE...LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ECMWF AND GFS CARVE OUT A MUCH LARGER
TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE.
DESPITE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING N/NW OF KPIA AND E OF
KCMI...NEGATIVE CU-RULE SUGGESTS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER. END RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA BY 20Z THEN
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO KDEC AND KCMI BY AROUND 02Z. AFTER
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...BARNES



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