Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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675 FXUS64 KLUB 080734 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 234 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 As of 2 AM CDT, a shallow surface cold front is across the central Texas Panhandle and is expected to continue to push southward through the forecast area this morning. Winds will turn to the north following the frontal boundary with very weak CAA and low temperatures this morning remaining near normal in the upper 40s to 50s. The upper closed low continues to wobble over the Northern Plains today with another vort lobe ejecting around the southern periphery of the low. Surface lee cyclogenesis will develop across northeast New Mexico with winds backing to the west this afternoon along the Caprock and remaining light and variable mostly off the Caprock. Despite the weak frontal passage tonight, sunny skies and the return of downsloping winds will give way to temperatures remaining above normal today in the 80s. As the surface low drops southward into the Permian Basin, another shallow cold front will push south across the forecast area late tonight. Once again, CAA behind the front will be weak with lows tonight in the upper 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A rex-like blocking pattern will develop over the western CONUS for the second half of this week. A more progressive pattern of short wave troughs from the Great Lakes into the eastern US will promote surface ridging being reinforced into West Texas during this period. This will keep temperatures on the cool side of seasonal averages under generally low level easterly flow. The aforementioned rex block will break down and flatten out late this week with short wave troughing moving overhead Friday into early Saturday. As the trough progresses closer to the region on Saturday, there does not appear to be any substantial broad large scale lift ahead of this trough. However, models do depict weaker smaller scale short waves moving through the southwest flow aloft. Low level flow will turn more southeasterly on Saturday in advance of the now western US trough slowly moving eastward from the Great Basin into the Intermountain West. The southeasterly low level flow will be able to advect low level moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. A low level theta-e ridge will set up near the Texas/New Mexico state line. The cool southeasterly low level flow pattern will only bring in modest amounts of instability and therefore little to no chances of severe weather. Models then differ quite a bit after Saturday on whether this trough will eject out onto the Plains or become a slow moving trough meandering around the southwestern US through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Increasing low level jet ahead of the weak surface front will give way to low level wind shear through the next few hours at all TAF sites. Following the frontal boundary, winds will continue to veer to the north by the early morning hours. West winds will back to PVW/LBB this afternoon and pick up to around 15 knots, while winds at CDS remain more light and variable. Another cold front will bring northeast winds to all three sites late tomorrow evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...11