428
FXUS64 KSJT 130542
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1242 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms that impacted our area this morning
have moved off into north and central Texas. A few showers are
lingering across the northeastern Big Country, but additional
rainfall amounts will be light. Heaviest rains today fell in San
Saba County where LCRA gauges picked up 1-3 inches. We could see
a few more thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening
although confidence is low given the extensive mid level cloud
deck streaming overhead. Nevertheless, given instability (ML CAPE
values greater than 2500 J/KG) and effective bulk shear values of
40-50 knots per the RAP, cannot rule out another strong to severe
storm similar to yesterday. Large hail potentially bigger than
golf balls will be possible given steep lapse rates aloft.
Otherwise, this evening and tonight will be quiet for most of the
area. Patchy fog will be possible tonight given the moist low
level airmass. Expect the clouds and fog to scatter out by Monday
afternoon, with some sunshine and temperatures warming into the
mid 80s to lower 90s. PoPs will be confined to the northwest Hill
Country where a few showers and thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Expect mainly a dry and warmer forecast for early this week as 500
MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. The next upper
level disturbance is due in by middle of this week and at the
surface will see a dryline moving into our area by late Wednesday
afternoon and a weak cold front and dryline intersection in the
Trans Pecos by Thursday morning. Also, moderate/strong instability
will be over much of the area with some vertical wind shear. As a
result, expect a few rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
Wednesday night through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of
severe weather season, so can not rule out a few severe storms.
Going with mainly medium chances of rain. Look for dry and warmer
weather Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 90s next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities in fog will begin lifting 14Z
and rising to MFR and then VFR by late morning. Light southeast
winds will shift northwest to north at 5 to 10 KTS mid to late
morning as Pacific front/surface trough with drier air moves in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     82  57  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  89  58  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    92  60  95  66 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   83  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  83  58  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       89  60  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       84  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04