Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
827
FXXX10 KWNP 080031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 08-May 10 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 08-May 10 2024
May 08 May 09 May 10
00-03UT 2.33 1.67 2.67
03-06UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
06-09UT 2.67 2.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.00
15-18UT 1.00 3.67 2.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.67 2.00
21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 08-May 10 2024
May 08 May 09 May 10
S1 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms over the next three days primarily due to the potential from ARs
3663 and 3664.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 07 2024 1630 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 08-May 10 2024
May 08 May 09 May 10
R1-R2 90% 90% 90%
R3 or greater 50% 50% 50%
Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare
activity are expected through the forecast period given the evolution of
ARs 3663 and 3664 as well as their recent flare history. In addition, a
high chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackout will persist as
well given AR 3663s history of X-class flares.