Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 012152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYING TREND UNDERWAY...WITH THE 12Z KABQ PWAT COMING IN AT
0.25"...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND WELL BELOW 24HRS
AGO. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND SANTA ROSA IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEAKING OF...LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REPLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FROM THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODELS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THEN A RETURN
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL EASILY BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP IN LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RIDGETOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
RATON SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FAIR TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. VENT RATES TREND BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP
BOTTOMING OUT. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD COOL US OFF BUT THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  25  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  47  19  50 /   0   0   5   0
CUBA............................  21  47  23  50 /   0   0   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  54  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  51  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  21  52  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  24  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  11  42  14  44 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  45  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  22  44  25  48 /   0   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  42  12  44 /   5   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  36  16  38 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  38  10  41 /   5   5   5   0
TAOS............................  14  43  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  18  48  20  49 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  22  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  23  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  55  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  55  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  49  28  52 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  50  21  53 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  49  26  54 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  27  52  32  56 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  50  25  54 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  16  52  19  56 /   5   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  18  53  21  57 /   5   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  51  24  54 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  22  57  31  67 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  21  54  28  60 /   0   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  60  30  64 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  25  59  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  60  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  24  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  25  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  28  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  55  33  61 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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