Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 231747 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CELL DVLPMENT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT ABQ/SAF/AEG BUT SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THUS SHORT
DURATION. GUP HAS THE STRONGEST TS IMPACT POTENTIAL WITH LONGER
DURATION. FMN COULD SEE SOME VCSH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO TS WOULD BE MOST POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DEFINED BY THE PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TODAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S AND 90S IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THUS...STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO WITH STOUT
HEIGHTS OF 600 DAM AT H5. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BEYOND THE AZ BORDER TODAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OVER
MOST OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA...KEEPING BETTER MOISTURE INTACT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY IN
THE WEST...WHERE LIKELY CATEGORY WAS INTRODUCED FOR HIGH TERRAIN
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY SEEMED 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL...AND SO FORECAST WAS
BUILT WITH NUMBERS ABOVE GUIDANCE. WOULD SEE NO REASON WHY MOST
AREAS WOULD NOT MEET OR EXCEED YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUDS IN MANY LOCALES.

INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BACK INTO NM WITH
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY LOWERING BY 3-5 DAM. THE REMNANT SPOKE OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THE STEERING FLOW SEEMS LIKE IT
WOULD PICK UP GIVEN INCREASED H5-H7 LAYER FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THE
EAST WOULD BE LEFT MOSTLY DRY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING INDUCING
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ELONGATE SLIGHTLY ON A WEST-EAST AXIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING AND STORM PRODUCTION WOULD STEER TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WHERE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPLOIT
THIS FIRST. REMAINING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WOULD HAVE MORE
DIFFICULTY PRODUCING STORMS...THUS COVERAGE HAS BEEN KEPT AS
ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM TO HOT
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORMS AS A SERIES OF BACK
DOOR FRONTS ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK INITIAL BOUNDARY
WILL TRY TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS A
MORE SUCCESSFUL SECOND PUSH WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECHARGE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHILE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW MEETS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ANOTHER TERTIARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE
LATE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEFINITION BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
IS A BIT MUDDLED AND AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT FOR NOW AN INCREASE IN POPS
AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN THE GREATER NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STATE SEEMS SUFFICIENT. THEREAFTER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY BE SHUNTED FARTHER WEST...LEAVING A TASTE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
WORK INTO EASTERN ZONES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP ANOTHER ROUND
OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE VALUES IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DRY AIR PRESENTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...HOWEVER MODELS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRY PUSH. NAM IS DRIEST
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WITH GFS AND EC
MODELS MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS A BIT COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE EAST WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. RH VALUES SHOW
MODEST DECREASES AND THE EAST REMAINS DRY WHILE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT
IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS BUT SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME POOR TO FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 OVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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