Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 261910 AAD
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FROM CLINES CORNERS NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD IN
ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS...WHICH ARE GENERALLY SHOWING 1
TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THAT AREA. MOST OF
THAT SNOW SHOULD FALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. THIS NECESSITATED A CONVERSION
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WARNING FROM LAS VEGAS TO
RATON. WE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM CLINES CORNERS
EASTWARD ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR BASED ON APPARENT ACCUMULATIONS
VISIBLE VIA WEB CAMS AND AROUND 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
PROBABLE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NOW
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS EVENING. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
INTO THE BROAD SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EVIDENT ON SATILLITE
IMAGERY...AND IT SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PLATEAUS AND
HIGHLANDS...OR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SO...WE CANCELED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE HAD IN EFFECT IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LOOK AT THAT MORE CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GET THAT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1045 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HRS. SNOW WILL MAINLY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH MTN TOP OBSCD EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING. LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SNOWFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES LIKE
FMN/SAF/LVS AND TCC. CANT RULE OUT PASSING SH DROPPING CIGS/VIS
BRIEFLY TO MVFR CATEGORIES AT GUP/AEG/ABQ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE DUE TO FG/LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAKES LATE TONIGHT FCST THAT
MUCH TRICKIER. DUE TO THE RECENT SNOWFALL AND SOME EXPECTED MELTING
HAVE TO THINK SOME TERMINAL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. TRIED TO PLAY THAT IN THE LATEST TERMINAL FCST.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...534 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014...
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRING ON SCHEDULE FOR EASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH. STATEMENT ON THE STREET...UPDATED PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS
TO FOLLOW AFTER 6 A.M.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL TAPER OFF OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AS SNOW ENDS BUT CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SUNNY SPELL THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RETURN TO WINTER MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PLUNGES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND THE NEXT COLD
PACIFIC STORM SWEEPS ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEW YEARS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF SNOW. SNOWY CONDITIONS WILL
CLEAR BY THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...STRONG STORM CORE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH FAST FLOW
IN CIRCULATION ABOUT THE CORE ROCKETING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CLAYTON...TO ALBUQUERQUE...TO THE BOOT HEEL.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY AND
INTO THE POST NEW YEAR WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
BROADER TROUGH STRUCTURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
REMAINS STATIONARY. TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT
EAST INTO TEXAS...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF MASSIVE
RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA
OFF THE ALASKAN AND CANADIAN ARCTIC COASTS. RIDGE WILL PUMP NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN AGGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SYSTEM CORE WILL DRIFT TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA ON NEW
YEARS DAY...AND THEN BEGIN AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD SWEEP ACROSS NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS NEXT PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SYSTEM INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING EN ROUTE TO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR TODAY...STORM CORE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DRIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LEAVE LARGE
SWATH OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH
SOMEWHAT LESS TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD AIR PENETRATION INTO THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE DECEMBER
NORMALS...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW...WITH DAYTIME RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. DAYTIME SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES...AND SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND WESTERN
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS DOWN SOUTH. AN INCH OR TWO IS MORE LIKELY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE STORM
CENTER SHIFTS EAST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BROADLY TONIGHT...WITH
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WINDING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WESTERLY BREEZES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
COUNTRY AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WILL DIE OFF THROUGH
THE DAY TO EASE A MORNING BLOWING SNOW THREAT.

FOR SATURDAY...TROUGH AXIS LYING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL KEEP CLOUD
TRAPPED IN THE PATTERN...BUT BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN UTAH TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL HELP KEEP
SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME BEFORE
ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
STATE...AND SURFACE HIGH OOZES SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO.

FOR SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF
SOUTHBOUND STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. CLOUDS AND SNOWFALL WILL START DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF WESTERN STORM STARTS
TO WORK INTO THE STATE. SOME DAYTIME EASING OF TEMPERATURES UNDER
SUNNIER SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
LATE DECEMBER NORMALS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE EAST FORM
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES EASTWARD...WITH
WESTERLY BREEZES SHOWING UP BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR MONDAY...MASSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DRIFTING EVER CLOSER
TO NEW MEXICO...WITH COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
PLUNGING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FRONT WILL
DRIVE SOUTH AND BULGE WESTWARD AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT WILL DROP EASTERN TEMPERATURES BACK TO 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW LATE DECEMBER NORMALS...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS A
LITTLE MORE MODERATE AT 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW WILL
BUILD IN WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SNOW COVERAGE EXPANDING ACROSS ALL OF THE
EAST...AND ACROSS THE WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RUN LOCALLY
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY...POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SWEEPING TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS POWERFUL WEST COAST
DOWNSTREAM STORM FLOW INTENSIFIES OVER NEW MEXICO. SNOW OVER THE
EAST REDUCED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GOING TO THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...WITH SNOW COVERAGE EXPANDING STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
STORM CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT SNOW
FOCUS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE HEADING INTO NEW YEARS EVE
WITH SOUTHEAST BREEZINESS MAINLY FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER EAST. STORM CORE
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN ARIZONA NEW YEARS DAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CHIHUAHUA NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO
CENTRAL COLORADO. NEW YEARS DAY INTO NEW YEARS NIGHT WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST...AND 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST...WILL BE THE STORY ON TUESDAY. GRADUAL
MODERATION WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY
JANUARY NORMALS ON NEW YEARS DAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CENTERED IN FAR NE AZ A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE CO NM LINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS A LITTLE FARTHER S AND W INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO PERHAPS LAS VEGAS AND THE E SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THAT WILL ACT TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TO SOME DEGREE
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ON EAST. SECOND BEST SNOW
RECIPIENT FROM THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE TIME ON THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD
BE THE NW MTNS. SEVERAL MORE INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRES AND
THE RATON RIDGE VCNTY WITH A BIT LESS NW MTNS AND FAR NE PLAINS AND
REST OF COLFAX CO. ALSO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
AND...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN...SOME DISTANCE BEHIND IT. 20 FT WINDS TO
BE LIGHTER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TODAY COMPARED TO CHRISTMAS
DAY...BUT STILL SOMEWHAT GUSTY ACROSS SE QUARTER OR THIRD OF FCST
AREA. MIN HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES...EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND SE AREAS...WHERE THE LOWEST
VALUES SHOULD BE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COLDER THAN NORMAL AFTN
TEMPS BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH MODERATING SOME
MAINLY SUN. STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THOUGH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS SAT. MODELS STILL SUPPORT
INCREASING WINDS SUN...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH STILL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL TO BE A
PRETTY POTENT STORM...COMES IN MORE GRADUALLY THEN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM...IMPACTING THE STATE BETWEEN TUE AND THU NIGHT. VERY COLD
AIR TO BE DROPPING S AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO WIND UP...ENTERING NM
AS EARLY AS MON ACROSS THE NE WITH A REINFORCING SHOT LATER MON
NIGHT/TUE. TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THIS SCENARIO. AMT AND
TIMING OF PRECIP LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN STILL AND WILL DEPEND ON
AMT OF PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ABOVE THE SHALLOW BUT VERY
COLD AIR MASS. MODELS A SOMEWHAT LESS IN AGREEMENT THAN 24 HRS AGO
BUT EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED AND COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
VENTILATION WOULD LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR PENETRATION. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LESS RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-527-530>534.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-502-518-521.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-510>517-528-529.

&&

$$

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