Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 272240
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016
The models are in good agreement in the short term. The weather
pattern across the northern portion of the state will be
relatively quiet, at least in the short term. The main weather
feature in the short term will be a cold front that is associated
with a low in the high Arctic. The front will move across the
Arctic Coast tonight into early tomorrow morning. Aloft, a 582 dam
ridge at 500 mb currently sits over the west coast of Alaska. This
ridge will be pushed down tonight as an upper level trough pushes
across the Chukchi Sea.
North slope...A cold front will pass along the Arctic Coast
tonight into early Sunday. Behind the front, an area of high
pressure will move eastward across the arctic coast through
Tuesday. The front will bring a brief shot of rainfall to the
Arctic Coast as it passes through. Temperatures will drop behind
the front. No major fog issues are expected this afternoon along
the coast due to winds containing a predominate southerly
component. As the high move eastward tomorrow winds will shift to
a more northerly direction helping to bring in some coastal fog.
West Coast and Western Interior...The biggest issue here is the
high water in the Noatak and Kobuk River Valleys due heavy
rainfall in the Brooks Range earlier this week. Please see the
hydrology section below for further discussion about this issue.
Widespread stratus will persist across much of the west coast and
western interior through Sunday. A trough pushing in from the west
will bring some chances of rainfall through Sunday evening;
however, rainfall amounts will generally range between 0.01 and
Central and eastern Interior...Patchy fog was observed in many
area river valleys the past two mornings. This trend will
continue again on Sunday. Some isolated to scattered showers in
the southeastern interior tonight into Sunday morning. Any showers
on Sunday will be limited to the extreme southeastern corner of
the forecast area.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
.FIRE WEATHER...no issues at this time.
.HYDROLOGY...Heavy rainfall in the western Brooks Range last
weekend the caused rises on many rivers and streams in northwest
Alaska. The Kobuk River at kiana has more than quadrupled its flow
over the past five days. Reports from the Noatak River indicate
that many gravel bars are submerged and soils are saturated. Pilot
reports indicate that flooding is occuring on portions of the
Kelley River and Aggie Creek, and that water levels are high on
the upper reaches of the Noatak River.
Water levels on rivers and streams draining out of the western
Brooks Range are expected to remain high through the weekend.
Hunters, pilots and operators of air charter services should be
aware that some landing areas may be inundated and that the high
water may cause increased debris to move downstream.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.