Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 061049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. RUN TO
RUN THEY HAVE SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. MODELS
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MUCH BETTER TODAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NAM IS DOING A
BETTER JOB HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION AND THE RAIN SHADOWING IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR BETTER. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR AREAS EAST
OF TANANA...WITH A BLEND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE AXIS LYING OVER CORDOVA TO BARROW THIS
MORNING WITH 576 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ROTATE TO
THE EAST WITH THE AXIS MOVING TO LIE FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS TO DAWSON AND OVER DEADHORSE AND 570 DAM HEIGHTS
RETREATING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. TWO 540 DAM LOWS OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO
LIE FROM THE LOW 533 DAM LOW SOUTHEAST OVER DUTCH HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM THE LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER
CAPE ROMANZOF AND EAST OVER THE COOPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO
LIE OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO AMBLER BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND A 570 DAM HIGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC.
A 544 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BANKS
ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO THE WEST
APPROACHES THE ARCTIC COAST...AND MOVES OVER THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRAGGING TO
THE EAST. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES PEAK LATE THIS EVENING OVER
THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 18 CELSIUS AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AT
AROUND 14 CELSIUS...THEN TREND DOWN TO AROUND 8 CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 2 CELSIUS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM GALENA TO EAGLE THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AROUND A
982 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE UPPER
YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIE FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TO BETHEL TO COLD BAY MOVING TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO
KALTAG TO SEWARD THIS EVENING...AND FROM POINT HOPE TO FAIRBANKS
TO CHISANA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO OLD CROW
YUKON AS THE FRONTS MERGE.

SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/0738Z HAS SOME STRATUS
IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. ALSO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA. DO NOT SEE THEM IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL FORECAST
AREAS...BUT WILL ADD IT INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ON THE ARCTIC
COAST TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM...BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE PRETTY DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON THE COAST AND HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC PLAIN REACHING
THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS
TO MOST AREAS SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY AND OVER THE WHOLE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL WINDS WILL 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. INLAND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
PULLING SMOKE OUT OF THE INTERIOR TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WINDS
INCREASING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RED FLAGS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND THEY LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS WITH HEAVIER SMOKE CONDITIONS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREE COOLER. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH A GOOD CAP
STILL PRESENT AND PRETTY BENIGN CONVECTIVE INDICES. GUSTY WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK
GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT IT WILL SKIP OVER THE AREA
FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND REFORM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. STILL SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES
223...225 AND 226 AS WINDS GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH NEAR PASSES. A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WITH THE FRONT OUT WEST
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
ARE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGES AND ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH RESPONSE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

$$

SDB JUL 15



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