Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 302226
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 PM AKDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...5150 METER LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF KOTZEBUE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWEST TO WRANGELL ISLAND 1 AM WED. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL APPROACH THE ARCTIC COAST WED AM AND
THEN A WEAK LOW AT THE END OF THE TROUGH 200 MILES NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH. VORTICITY CENTER MOVING
NORTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND 10 PM MON MOVING NORTH TO THE BERING
STRAIT 4 AM WED. WEAK RIDGING OVER EASTERN INTERIOR PERSISTING
THROUGH THU THOUGH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
AREA THU. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK EAST TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WED THROUGH THU AND CREATE A BROAD TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WHICH WILL CAUSE SLOW MID LEVEL COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TUE THROUGH THU.

SURFACE...1035 MB HIGH 500 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BUILDING TO
1046 MB AND DRIFTING TO 80N LAT 180W LON THROUGH 10 AM THU. 1002
MB LOW NEAR KIVALINA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND WEAKENING 101014 MB
WED AM NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA DISSIPATING WITH A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA WED EVENING AT 1000 MB.

MODELS...AGREE OK THROUGH THU ON THE MAIN FEATURES MENTIONED
ABOVE. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE ECMWF...THE LATTER WHICH IS DEVELOPING A STRONG
LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON FRI...QUITE A
DEPARTURE FROM THE USUAL PATTERN DURING THIS SEASON. HAVE AGREED
WITH WPC TO AVOID THIS ECMWF SOLUTION.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS THEY
WILL NOT DIMINISH MUCH UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST...LIKE
WHEN THE TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE ARCTIC OCEAN STALLS THEN
WEAKENS INTO A SMALL LOW. UPGRADED EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST TO
BLIZZARD AND EXTENDED CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST ADVISORY THROUGH
TUE...AND ADDED THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST.

WESTERN ALASKA...SOME LIGHT SNOW INNER COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO
TUE EVENING AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAK
VORTICITY CENTER MOVES NORTH OVER OUTER NORTON SOUND. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. THEREAFTER EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT THROUGH
THU. PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

JL MAR 15


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