Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 291124 CCA

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016


Beautiful and quiet weather will highlight the forecast through
early next week for most of Northern Alaska as an upper level
ridge resides overhead. Thereafter, chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms increase south of the Brooks Range as the upper
level ridge retreats west over Russia. Models have been extremely
consistent in regards to the upper level ridge and its movement
over the last couple of days as well with the handling of a couple
advertised upper lows forecast to move over the state today and mid
week. Good agreement amongst the 29/00Z models through Wednesday
with solutions slowly diverging in regards to overall progression
and positioning of features.

The upper level ridge responsible for the stretch of beautiful and
quiet weather across Northern Alaska will start to shift north and
west towards Russia this evening with its center over the
Chukostsk Peninsula by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, an upper level
shortwave will continue to drop south along the ALCAN border this
morning, reaching the Southeast Interior late this morning and
then will move east to west along the Alaska Range tonight and
Monday, reaching the Yukon Delta by Monday evening. As the upper
level ridge continues to move west, an upper level low originating
in the high arctic will move south through early Wednesday
morning to be 300 miles north of Demarcation Point. Its associated
trough will then be over the Eastern Interior. This low will
remain stationary Thursday, then retreat Northeast towards the
Canadian Arctic Archipelago Friday. Over the Gulf of Alaska, a
series of upper level lows will rotate east towards the Southeast
Panhandle then north as they weaken over South Central Alaska
Tuesday through the rest of the week. At the surface, a thermal
trough will develop north of the Alaska Range Tuesday remaining
in place over the Southern Interior through Friday before shifting
north towards the Brooks Range next weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Easterly flow over the Beaufort Sea
has increased overnight resulting from the increasing pressure
gradient as a 1037 mb surface high shifts south and east towards
Banks Island. Easterly winds should diminish tonight over the
Beaufort Sea coast as the surface high continues to move east.
Most locations along the Arctic Coast have been clear this past
evening, except for Barrow and more recently Kaktovik and Point
Thomson where low ceilings in stratus and fog (Point Thomson) have
been reported. Visible satellite imagery from earlier this evening
shows an area of stratus just off the coast from Point Thomson to
Barrow. Chances for stratus and fog along the coast may increase
as temperatures warm with ice free waters again today and tonight.
Easterly flow along the Arctic Coast will increase again Monday
night and with winds in the Brooks Range increasing Tuesday as a
1029 mb surface high moves south towards the Arctic Coast,
increasing the pressure gradient along the coast as well as the
Brooks Range. Precipitation chances will remain very low through
Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior: Quiet, warm and dry weather will
persist under the upper level ridge across Western Alaska. As the
aforementioned shortwave moves east along the Alaska Range, it may
spark off a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon over the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley and over the Lower Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim
Valleys Monday evening. Gusty winds will develop late this
afternoon over the Upper Kuskokwim Valley and persist through the
evening. Visible satellite imagery from earlier this evening
showed an area of stratus moving north and over parts of Saint
Lawrence Island. The webcam from Gambell shows that fog and
stratus has rolled in. Will include mention of fog in the forecast
this morning.

Eastern and Central Interior: Fair weather cumulus that develop
over the Eastern Interior this afternoon have moved south and
dissipated with some cloud cover remaining over the Eastern Alaska
Range and Upper Tanana Valley. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected through Memorial Day. A shortwave moving over the
southeast today may spark off a few thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening from Chicken south. Areal coverage for isolated
thunderstorms expands on Monday to include the Alaska Range and
the Upper Kuskokwim. Chances for showers will increase Tuesday
through the rest of the week over the area as the thermal trough
develops and strengthens.


.FIRE WEATHER... The warming and drying trend will continue as
advertised into early next week. There is a potential for some
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from Chicken
south to Northway. On Monday, the coverage area for isolated
thunderstorms expands to include the Alaska Range and upper
portions of the Kuskokwim Valley.


.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for river rises anticipated.


Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.


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