Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 011047
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 AM AKDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DIVERGE. LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGING
NORTHWARD AND WILL POSITION ITSELF TO A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTATION BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE RIDGE
INTO EASTERN ALASKA BUT IT WILL GET BEAT BACK BY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE ARCTIC COAST WILL FAIL TO REALIZE SPRING AS SUCCESSIVE PUSHES
OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH CONTINUE TO INVADE THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO CONTINUES FOG AND FLURRIES.

THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO HARBOR THE THERMAL TROUGH AS IT
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. REPETITIVE
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR SHOWERS AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF TANANA SUCH AS THE Y-K
DELTA...NULATO HILLS AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
LOWER KOYUKUK VALLEY FOR MONDAY AND THEN SLIDING A BIT NORTH OF
TUE AND EXTENDING FURTHER EAST TO ENCOMPASS TANANA.

A VERY SHORT LIVED CHINOOK IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AREA PASSES THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES OCCURRED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SAT AND MORE
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TODAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES MAY RETURN
ON MON AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.
&&

$$

CF MAY 16



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