Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 092229
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
129 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE TROUGH EXPANDING EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CURRENT TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AND BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ON
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXPANDS EAST.

A LOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 3PM WED
PM THEN MOVE WEST TO KOTZEBUE BY 3PM THU THEN PERSIST INTO FRI.
THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO NORTHWAY WILL
MOVE TO GAMBELL TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 3AM WED AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS
TROUGH.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO
-14C OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

SURFACE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
RETREAT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRI
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA BY 3AM WED...TO BRISTOL BAY TO NORTHWAY BY 3PM
WED...TO DENALI TO OLD CROW BY 3AM THU...MCGRATH TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE BY 3PM THU...TO ANVIK TO BETTLES TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3AM
FRI...TO ANVIK TO AMBLER TO BARROW BY 3PM FRI. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO SPREAD NORTH WITH THIS FRONT. CHANCE OF SNOW AND AMOUNTS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT LESS THAN 1
INCH OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR. WILL SEE EAST WINDS 10 TO 20KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG AND AFTER THIS FRONT WHILE THE WEST
COAST WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
3AM THU...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY 3PM THU...TO BRISTOL BAY TO
DENALI TO EAGLE BY 3AM FRI...AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FRONT BY 3PM FRI. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FRONT UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH THE FIRST FRONT AND THE SNOW BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3AM
THU. AFTER THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH THE GFS BEING WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ECMF AND NAM WITH
THE LOW MOVEMENT. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY STARTING THU WITH THE
LOW SO AT THIS POINT WILL USE GFS THROUGH 3AM THU AND THEN USE A
MIX OF THE ECMF/NAM AFTER THAT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

JB FEB 16


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