Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 282312
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
312 PM AKDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND THE WEATHER FRONT IS RACING AWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION HAS IT GOING INLAND NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND WHILE THE REST OF THE FRONT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE PANHANDLE AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

GALE FORCE WINDS STILL BLOWING OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND EXPECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THE CROSS SOUND AREA
GOING NORTH. SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS
EVENING AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LESSENING SO
IT WILL BE RESIDUAL SEAS AND SWELLS. A TRAILING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST GULF. A COLD POOL ALOFT IS SPARKING SOME STRONGER
CONVECTION ALONG WITH A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF 50N/140W. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT FOR NEAR WHITE PASS...THINK THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FEW FOUND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED MUCH FOR A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY EVENING.
REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE NAM12 THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ITS PERFORMANCE TAKES A MIDDLE POSITION AMONG THE
OTHER MODELS. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF
BASES THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR WHITE PASS AND HAINES BORDER WILL
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
CLARENCE STRAIT...DIMINISHING A LITTLE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
ON MONDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN LARGER BY THE MID WEEK FOR A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND THUS USED THE WPC ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION UTILIZING HEAVIER WEIGHT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE RAIN AND HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-032>035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/AHN

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