Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 080018

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...Band of heavier snows southern extent presently
between Pelican and Sitka, Tenakee and Angoon, and to near Taku
inlet or just south of there while the northern extent is between
Cross Sound and Cape Fairweather. This band will be move west-
northwest through the evening. Heavier snows ending in panhandle
area by midnight, meanwhile it should pass through the Yakutat
between 9 pm and 5 am. Additional snows through the evening in the
2 to 5 inch forecast range. Southern panhandle continues to stay
dry tonight and Thursday. The outflow winds into the gulf across
the southern panhandle increasing to 20 to 30 kt

Northerly gradient intensifying through Thursday afternoon across
Lynn Canal. Expecting winds to increase to Gales by late
afternoon and gusts at Skagway to start reaching near 40 mph.
Started a strong wind headline in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Arctic high pressure will remain over NW Canada into
next week. An upper trof will move S through the area late Fri
into Sat, and will help usher in colder air. Did lower temps some
Fri into Sun to handle this. Still looks to remain dry with
mainly a N-NW flow aloft for the weekend and early next week with
strong upper ridge over mainland AK and E Bering Sea.

Main concern other than the cold weather will be winds. N pressure
gradient will build over the area for late week and last into the
weekend. Also, conditions will be somewhat favorable for Taku
winds to set up in the Juneau area Thu night into at least Sat.
Winds could potentially gust to 60 mph or more during this time,
but not enough confidence in strength of cross barrier flow to go
that high yet. Later shifts will need to monitor this. With all
the dry snow laying around, some blowing and drifting snow is
possible over the N, assuming the top layer does not crust up with
Thu afternoon sunshine.


.AVIATION...IFR conditions northern part of panhandle due to snow
and ceilings. VFR Near Yakutat and southern half of the panhandle.
There is some patchy fog possible late overnight, over the
southern panhandle. Yakutat should see a period overnight of IFR
Ceilings and Visibilities as the band passes westward. Strong
winds and possibility for wind shear near terrain.


.MARINE...Small craft winds and seas along the outer coast
continuing through Thursday. Inner channels Generally under 25
kt...with increases during the day tomorrow and Northern Lynn
reaching a north Gale.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019-020-
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-
     Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM AKST
     Thursday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-



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