Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 282149
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXITING THE REGION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
COULD DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN TREASURE VALLEY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS...SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AS THE TROUGH
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DRAWS AIR THROUGH THE BAKER VALLEY IN
OREGON AND AIR THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO.
MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEM WE SAW LAST SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BOISE
MOUNTAINS...DANSKIN MOUNTAINS...AND FOOTHILLS NEAR BOISE AND
MOUNTAIN HOME TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE THE OTHER PORTION OF THE
SPLIT STAYS MAINLY TO OUR EAST. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THE
PERIOD WHILE KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING MONDAY/S
COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY STRETCHING ACROSS THE UPPER
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR. SCATTERED MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE BOISE MTNS WILL DRIFT TO THE SW INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY /WHICH
MAY INCLUDE KBOI AND KMUO/. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LINGER EAST OF KBOI TO FAIRFIELD AND
SOUTH TO KMUO THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 15 KNOTS
OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS NEAR KJER AND FROM KONO-KBKE
UNTIL 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHEAST TO 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....BW/WH
AVIATION.....BW


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