Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOI 050253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA HAVE ENHANCED
WINDS FROM A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 40 MPH WERE REPORTED AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF GLENNS FERRY AND
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT IS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 5500 FT IN EASTERN
OREGON AND 6500-7000 FT ELSEWHERE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW WITH THESE SHOWERS...REPEATED RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD ADD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES OR LANDSLIDES. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BURN SCARS IN BAKER AND NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES
IN OREGON. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 06Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONT. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FEET MSL...SW
15-30 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LOW VFR AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXITING TO THE EAST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SURFACE AND
ALOFT SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE OREGON COAST AS OF 2 PM MDT.
THIS LOW WILL SWING INTO ERN OREGON BY 12Z SATURDAY...THEN LIFT
INTO NRN IDAHO BY 00Z SUNDAY. AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...ALL
MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS IS AN INDICATION OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
COMBINED WITH AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION...THAT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY TO THE SRN HALF OF OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...ARRIVE AT ONTARIO BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM...BOISE BETWEEN 8
AND 9 PM...MOUNTAIN HOME BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM...AND THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED BRIEF GUSTS
30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY GUSTS WILL BE 20-30
MPH.

MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ERN OREGON AS OF
00Z...AND AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER THIS RAINFALL COULD LAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SAT MORNING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TWO BURN SCARS IN ERN OREGON...THE ELDORADO
AND THE COMBINED CORNET/WINDY RIDGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO CAUSE PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF THE BURN SCARS. HOWEVER...
WITHIN THE SCARS...MUDSLIDES/LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE AND THESE CAN
BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. PLEASE BE AWARE IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING
ON U.S. HIGHWAY 26 THROUGH OR NEAR THE ELDORADO PASS...OR ON STATE
HIGHWAY 245 SOUTH OF BAKER CITY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS
SIGNIFICANTLY EAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND BOISE MTNS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS GONE.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS SATURDAY. CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...AND WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BAKER CITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE
50S TOMORROW. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...WE WILL SEE A 5 TO 10
DEGREE WARMUP FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
COOL WITH MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE EVEN COOLER SUNDAY
MORNING...LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND WE
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY...WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GOING
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.