Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 282048
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
...A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...VARIABLE 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



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