Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 030227
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
827 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AS WELL. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE COAST WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH WED. HEIGHTS START FALLING THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
OUR AREA TRANSITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEW SLOWER MOTION OF THE TROUGH...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE OREGON SIDE OF THE BORDER. BY WED
AFTERNOON...THAT CHANCE EXTENDS INTO MUCH OF OUR SW IDAHO
SIDE...BUT WE LOWERED POPS JUST ENOUGH IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS TO REMOVE THE MENTION THERE. TEMPS WERE
INCREASED...BOTH MINS AND MAXES...FOR THE SHORT TERM IN LIGHT OF
THE SLOWER MOTION AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WARM AIR...AND
MOISTURE...ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE TIME TO OCCUR. THE LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE FOR BOISE WAS 86 FOR WED...AND ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A
LITTLE HIGH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD THE SLOWING
TREND CONTINUE. SE WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING...LEADING TO MINS WED MORNING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S THERE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE WARM MOIST
AIR...LEADING TO A CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE SMALL CHANGE
WAS MADE FOR THIS EVENING...THAT BEING THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN AND WRN HARNEY
COUNTY. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CONVECTIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN SECTION DIGS SOUTH
AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW. CAN EXPECT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BUT MAY STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/DD



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