Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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187
FXUS65 KBOU 011617
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1017 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A few cumulus popping up over the mountains and those will
continue to fill in during the afternoon with residual moisture in
place. Chance of showers and thunderstorms however will be
diminished by the warming aloft under the ridge, so will taper
those off just a bit. Otherwise not much change to the forecast
with another day of above normal temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday evening)
Issued at 446 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A weak upper level ridge will remain over Colorado today, but with
enough residual moisture over the mountains and Palmer Divide
region to produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms. Skies will begin the day mostly clear,
allowing for strong warming from the sun. Winds will tend to be
south to southeasterly as high surface pressure lies over Kansas
and a lee side trough of low pressure is in place along the base
of the Front Range foothills. High temperatures should be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. Patchy fog has developed in Middle
Park and South Park, but this should dissipate by mid-morning.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 446 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

For Sunday upper level ridging will be over the state with the
next weather disturbance moving onshore into California. This will
cause the ridge to move east over the plains as the low continues
to progress eastward. The SW flow aloft will help to bring some
drier conditions for Sunday with above normal temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday will see increasing winds over the entire CWA.
The upper low will progress into Utah by Monday then head north
into Montana by early Tuesday. Ahead of the trough into Western
Colorado flow will turn SW and with the addition of a 100+ kt jet
will help to bring increasing winds over the foothills and plains
monday afternoon. This drier SW flow combined with increasing
winds will create heightened fire weather conditions on the
plains. Tuesday will see the trough move over the state with a 90+
jet over the Northern mountains by Tuesday morning. Model cross
sections indicate the chance of a mean state critical layer
forming by 12z. Winds upwards of 70 kts near mountain top would
move down the into the Foothills creating possible gusts up 40 to
50 mph at times. A possible high wind highlight for this time
period could be needed if models continue with the placement of
the jet. Monday night into Tuesday moisture with the trough will
move into the Northern Mountains and with the cold air advection
behind the trough could result in snow showers for the higher
terrain Monday night into early Tuesday. Any precipitation will
not last as subsidence behind the trough will help to stabilize
conditions. Temperatures on Monday will be the warmest of the week
with the warmer SW flow but will drop significantly by Tuesday
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday is progged to be the coolest of the week as 700 mb temps
drop to -3C with the GFS guidance. This could bring highs in the
lower 60s through Thursday with overnight temperatures in the 30s.
The upper low will be well into Canada with zonal flow over the
state. Models show a disturbance by Wednesday afternoon that could
result in some precip for the plains and snow in the mountains
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models do not show agreement on
the coverage so will maintain a slight chance for now.

For the end of the week the ridge will return with warming
temperatures and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1017 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions will persist with normal diurnal wind patterns
mainly 10 knots or less. Any chance of showers/storms appears to
be confined to the higher elevations as warming aloft is capping
the atmosphere. Could be a passing shower over the Palmer Divide
area but south of the Denver area airports.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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