Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 271025
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW AS SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  THERE WILL BE SOME WAVE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO.  WITH
DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE IF SKIES WERE CLEAR HIGHS WOULD
LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
HOWEVER WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE HIGH CLOUD DECK CAN ALTER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN SOME CASES.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 60S ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NR THE WY-NE BORDER.
MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT TIMES.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND MTN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CROSS MTN FLOW INCREASES
TO 60-65 KTS.  MTN WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON CURRENT DATA SO
NOT SURE HOW IF THEY WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE OR WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MODELS HAVE FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THEN JUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANYWAY...JET LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROGGED IN THE 75-100 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS PROGGED CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER ALL THE CWA FOR
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A BIT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE SET ON THE
CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HIGHLIGHT WORTHY. MOISTURE IS VERY SPARSE
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
NOT VERY SUBSTANTIAL. DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
DECENT WAVE CLOUD. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE
1.5-3.0 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. SATURDAY`S ARE A
TAD...0-1.5 C...COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S. BOTH DAY`S MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR DENVER. READINGS WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT BRINGS IN
A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS BUT MOISTURE IS STILL
INSIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF HAS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH... THE GFS IS ZONAL MOVING TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MORE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS A BIT OF MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY NIGHT LATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS HAS NONE THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A TINY BIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS DRY. NOT GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE CURRENT
PATTERN LOOKED WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS 5 TO 7 DAYS
AGO TOO. THE GFS WON THAT BATTLE. MAY GO WITH SOME MINOR ALPINE
POPS SOME OF THE TIME...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

OUTSIDE OF HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE SLY THRU MIDDAY BUT THEN BECOME
MORE SWLY IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME PERIOD.  BY EARLY EVENING THEY SHOULD
BECOME MORE SSW AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



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