Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 250939
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
239 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

Strong ridge over the Gulf continues to push the jet over and into
the Colorado region. A vort max embedded in the flow currently
over eastern ID will make its way SE according to various short
terms models and reach NW CO by the morning hours. Lift ahead of
the PV center will increase clouds over the northern mountains
and portions of the eastern plains by morning A mountain wave will
be possible into the early afternoon with the orientation of the
jet. With the increased lift and subsidence providing mid-level
cooling added some light pops to the high country to account for
any orographic snow that may form. No accumulation is expected and
snow will be light if at all. On the plains clouds will be over
the area through the morning with a gradual clearing and warm-up
to low 60s. Winds will remain light over the plains with gusts
possible to 30 mph over the higher passes. Overnight lows will
once again drop into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 158 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

An upper lvl ridge will be over the area on Sun as a sfc lee trough
develops east of the mtns.  Overall it will be dry with downslope
low lvl flow across the plains.  This will allow for highs to rise
into the lower to mid 70s across nern CO with a few records possible.

On Mon the ridge will shift eastward as SWLY flow aloft increases
ahead of an upper level trough.  Meanwhile the sfc lee trough will
intensify over the plains.  Once again it will remain dry with temps
well abv normal.  Highs across the plains will be in the mid to
upper 70s with more records possible.

For Mon night into early Tue an upper level trough will quickly move
across the area.  The ECMWF has shifted the main upper low further
south across srn CO/nrn NM so best chc of pcpn may stay over srn CO.
However there still should be a chc of snow in the mtns mainly along
and south of I-70.  Across the plains will keep in a low chc of
showers mainly along and south of a Denver to Limon line.  As for
highs, a cold fnt will move across the plains Mon night which will
drop highs back to seasonal normals for Tue aftn.

On Wed dry WLY flow aloft will be over the area with temperatures
slightly abv normal. For Wed night into early Thu, the latest models
have backed off on the intensity of an upper level trough affecting
the area, as most of the energy stays to the north.  Thus pcpn
chances at this point look rather low.  Meanwhile another cold front
will move across nern CO which will drop temperatures back into the
40s for Thu aftn.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 158 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Push from the
NW will gradually bring winds to the NW by 10z before turning back
SE through 18z. A push from the north will veer winds around
northerly than NE later today. Speeds will stay on the lighter
side of 6-9 kts. Ceilings will start high with some influence of a
mountain wave but will scatter out by the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM MST Sat Nov 25 2017

Fire danger will be elevated Sunday afternoon across northeast
Colorado due to well abve normal temperatures and low humidity
levels. However, winds will be rather light. On Monday winds will
increase as temperatures remain well above normal. Thus Fire
Danger will increase across the plains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...RPK



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