Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
A BRIEF SHOWER TODAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...BEFORE HOT WEATHER
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FORECASTS.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES BUT ALSO MOCLDY PERIODS. MODELS DO SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5" AND
KI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...CANT RULE OUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO SNE BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15C. COOLER TEMPS IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THETA-E RIDGE AND KI AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SNE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SWD LATE TONIGHT. LOW PROB OF A BRIEF
SHOWER IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR MOCLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A MID NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S...AND NEAR 70 BOS/PVD AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
ACROSS MARITIMES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO MAINE. MODELS
SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...BUT LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND LOWER KI VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SO IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 16-17C AND W/NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...A BIT COOLER NEAR THE S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWNS MAINLY IN EASTERN MA TUE AND AGAIN FRI

DETAILS...

ENSEMBLES AND 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND THU WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF CT AND
FROM MERRIMACK VALLEY INTO INTERIOR SE MA. NOT LOOKING FOR
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS AS MEAN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
60S ALTHOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH 70 NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS LATER IN WEEK.

MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST ARE A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO E MA COAST. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF FIRST FRONT TUE...WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS BACK N TUE
NIGHT AND WED. 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SHOULD
STAY CLOSER TO 80...WHILE HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S IN W NEW ENGLAND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

TIMING OF SECOND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN BUT LOOKS TO BE
CLOSER TO LATE THU OR FRI. THIS TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT THAT MENTION PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT FARTHER S
AND W OF REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY.

PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH CIGS AOA 060 AND BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON IN PATCHY VALLEY
FOG. VFR MON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY SW WINDS 10-20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS EXPECTED
TO DROP S ACROSS WATERS TUE AND AGAIN LATE THU...SHIFTING WINDS TO
E/NE MAINLY ON E MA WATERS...BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



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