Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 011432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DURATION BRIEF. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE FOG HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING HAZE PATCHES. SEA BREEZE RUNNING A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE ALONG MA E COAST AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT IN UPDATE. REDUCED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
DO EXPECT CUMULUS FORMATION AND WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TAPERED BACK A LITTLE THE POPS. NAM
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON INSTABILITY. HRR DOES SHOW
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS DEVELOPING ABOUT 30 MI EITHER SIDE OF A
LWM-ORH-BDL LINE 16Z-22Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND MEDIOCRE
INSTABILITY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSTMS TO REACH SVR THRESHOLD AT
THIS TIME.

ADJUSTED TEMPS JUST A TAD HIGHER ACROSS SE AND E INTERIOR
MA...OTHERWISE LOOKS GOOD.

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF 14Z FOG HAD BURNED OFF
LEAVING JUST A FEW HAZE PATCHES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY KICKED INTO E COASTAL MA. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
LATE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND REFLECTED THAT IN A
TAF UPDATE. ALSO...THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.