Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 141820 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY A WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THEN SOME CEILING ISSUES CROP UP OVERNIGHT. OBSERVED AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY WORKING OUT LIKE A CHARM WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO POKE TOWARD 30 KNOTS
AT TIMES AT HARLINGEN AND BROWNSVILLE AND JUST A SHADE LOWER AFTER
21Z AT MCALLEN. A QUICK PULSE OF VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS HAS MIXED
OUT AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW-SCT AT HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS REMAIN MODERATE AT HARLINGEN AND BROWNSVILLE
BEFORE DIPPING AFTER 06Z...STILL BLOWING ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
NOTABLE FOG (HAZE IS MORE LIKELY). HOWEVER...GFS-20 3 HOURLY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
EXTENDING THROUGH 15Z...SO EXTENDED CURRENT FORECAST TO INCLUDE
THIS WINDOW. THEREAFTER...MIXING OUT OF THE CLOUDS AT
HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE MAY BE A LITTLE TARDY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND APPROACH OF FRONT WHICH WEAKENS THE WIND FIELD SO HAVE RAISED
BUT MAINTAINED MVFR BROKEN UNTIL JUST BEFORE 18Z. MCALLEN SHOULD
CLEAR SOONER SO DROPPED TO SCATTERED THERE. POST-SUNRISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY BUT AT MUCH LOWER SPEEDS WITH SURFACE LOW
HAVING PASSED INTO LOUISIANA AND TAKEN THE BEST GRADIENT WITH IT.

52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TODAY. STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR
TODAY AS RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF INTERACTS WITH
LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL BE ABOVE 3 KFT. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWER...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OVER THE GULF...LOWER PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE
PLAINS AND WILL DEEPEN...SUPPORTING THE WEST TEXAS PRESSURE FALLS.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY. LOCALLY...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...THOUGH STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTN. THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR CAMERON COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE  ID 80S INLAND
WEST.

TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL EASE LATE.
BELIEVE STRONG ONGOING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
GULF. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE MID 50S INLAND WEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST TX TONIGHT.

MONDAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FULLY MAXIMIZE. LOOK FOR MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND WEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY BY ABOUT NOON AND WILL REACH THE COAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL BE SUCH THAT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL IN TURN
STRENGTHEN UP A SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER PGF AND BREEZIER CONDITION AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES.

THE DOMINANT 500 MB RIDGING AND LOW ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN POPS NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
PREVAILING. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF HIGHS AND LOWS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS THROUGH
DAY 7 BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS MORNING.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH GULF WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS TO MAINTAIN STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY
TODAY. AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND TEXAS
TODAY...THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL FLATTEN...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO
MODERATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
MOST OF MONDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST GOING INTO THE LONG TERM. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL START
OFF FAIRLY WEAK AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK THE PGF
WILL START TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS MAY PUSH THE BAY AND GULF CONDITIONS
UP INTO SCEC CRIT ON THURS.

&&

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.