438
FXUS64 KBRO 141929
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
229 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A pleasant and warm afternoon is in store for Deep South Texas in
wake of yesterday afternoon and evening`s thunderstorms. The arrival
of drier air will allow for plentiful sunshine this afternoon as
skies remain mostly clear of cloud cover, and result in afternoon
high temperatures ranging from the 80s along the Lower Texas beaches
to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Winds will
continue to gradually shift to the east and southeast through late
this evening, with speeds falling below 5-10 mph tonight. The
combination of clear skies, light winds, and recent rainfall will
result in patchy fog developing once again closer to sunrise on
Wednesday. Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will range from the
upper 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to mid 70s across the Rio
Grande VAlley.

Another warm day is expected on Wednesday, but the return of
southeast winds will allow for the return of slightly higher dew
points. High temperatures will once again range from the 80s along
the Lower Texas beaches to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.
In combination with the higher humidity, "feels like" temperatures
will climb into the triple digits for portions of the Rio Grande
Valley, ranging from around 100-106 degrees. Low clouds will develop
Wednesday night as low level southerly to southeasterly flow
transports Gulf moisture. This will keep low temperatures a few
degrees warmer, mostly in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees region
wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Hot conditions are expecting again Thursday as southeasterly
surface winds continue to advect warmer air and moisture to the
region. Heat index values are forecast to reach 111-114 across the
eastern half of the CWA, likely requiring a Heat Advisory
Thursday afternoon. An upper level trough looks to move across
Texas on Friday, supporting a weak cold front that will bring a
slight drop in temperatures and dewpoints, limiting the risk for
additional heat advisories over the weekend. Additionally, there
is a slight chance (15-20%) for showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the cold front Friday.

An upper level ridge looks to build into the Central US Sunday,
persisting through the remainder of the period. Broad subsidence
and southeasterly surface flow will support clearer skies and
warming temperatures for the Start of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites with
clear skies to FEW/SCT cloud cover. However, there will be a
brief period of MVFR visibility possible between 11-13Z Wednesday
morning as patchy fog develops. Otherwise, winds will continue to
slowly shift to the east and southeast this afternoon with speeds
generally around 10-12 knots. Wind speeds will fall below 10
knots overnight, and increase to around 10 knots by mid morning on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate east to
southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail across the
Gulf waters and the Laguna Madre. Patchy fog may develop each night
over the Gulf waters.

Thursday through next Tuesday...A passing upper-level shortwave
looks to enhance a surface low pressure system over Northern
Mexico on Thursday. This will enhance briefly enhance pressure
gradients along the coast Thursday afternoon, leading to higher
wind speeds over the Laguna Madre and coastal Gulf waters,
possibly requiring a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline.
High pressure over the northern Gulf looks to support light to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the remainder
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  91  80  94 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               70  92  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 73  95  80  99 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  96  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  84  80  86 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  88  78  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...22