Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 240907
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
407 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of weather is expected starting today
lasting through upcoming weekend with two systems providing the
North Country with a wintry mix to rain type of scenario. First
system impacts our region on this afternoon with the second on
Sunday, as the trend of above normal temperatures continue.
Minor ice accumulation will be seen in eastern and central
Vermont this afternoon and could produce a few slick spots during
the evening commute. Gusty southeast downslope winds along the
Western Slopes are possible on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1248 AM EST Saturday...No significant changes from the
going forecast. Previous discussions follow.

Gusty winds remain in the Champlain Valley as the funneling
effect has been in full force. We`ve seen winds gust as high as
52mph at Burton Island on the Lake. The winds should slowly
weaken overnight as high pressure starts to build in. Some light
ground fog as also developed across the region mainly where its
rained on what remains of the snowpack so I added some patchy
fog mention based on some wind thresholds. Otherwise forecast is
in good shape.

Previous discussion...Overall forecast remains in good shape
for this evening and overnight as low pressure passing northeast
through the Great Lakes drags a warm front through the region
this evening, and the trailing cold front during the overnight.
Overrunning precipitation took a bit longer to move into the
region, which was a good thing as it allowed surface temps
across much of the area to warm above freezing. Still seeing
some pockets of freezing or slightly sub-freezing temps across
portions of the eastern Adirondacks and east of the Green
Mountain spine, where a mix of freezing rain, rain, and sleet
continues to be possible this evening, but as surface temps
continue to climb through the midnight hour we should see any
mix change to plain rain by the day`s end. With this in mind,
will keep current advisories in place, except for northern
Franklin County in NY which we`ll cancel based on surface temps
rising above freezing this hour.

After midnight, cold front tracks into the forecast area from
the northwest with precipitation generally diminishing but some
upslope rain/snow showers will likely continue until dawn across
the higher peaks with minimal snow accumulation expected. High
pressure builds into the region by Saturday morning with morning
clouds slowly decreasing to a partly sunny afternoon. Temps
overnight don`t budge too much as cold air advection behind the
front isn`t particularly strong so we`re looking at lows only in
the low/mid 30s, which will set the stage for Saturday highs in
the upper 30s to low 40s. Temps do cool off Saturday night as
skies briefly clear under high pressure, but after midnight
clouds will increase again ahead of our next system for Sunday.
More on that below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 406 AM EST Saturday...Precipitation will wind down
Sunday evening as the occluded front exits to our east. There may be
a bit of rain or freezing rain east of the Greens early Sunday
night, but overall expect dry conditions through Monday with high
pressure building to our south. A weak secondary front will push
through the region Monday afternoon, but it will be a dry frontal
passage. Monday`s temperatures will be similar to Sunday, perhaps
even a few degrees warmer as we`ll see some sunshine by afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 406 AM EST Saturday...High pressure will remain
the dominant weather feature through Tuesday, leading to fair
weather. Things become a little less certain thereafter as the long
range models differ on a possible frontal passage for Tuesday night
into Wednesday, which would produce some light rain or snow showers.
The biggest discrepancies come later in the week, specifically
Thursday night through Friday. The GFS brings a 989mb low into the
southern Great Lakes later Thursday, then develops a 992mb secondary
low just off Long Island by Friday morning. The ECMWF meanwhile is
weaker and slower with the primary system, and develops the
secondary low much further south. With these differences, have
stayed close to a model blend for the end of the week in regards to
temperatures, PoPs, and weather type. Overall, expect temperatures
to remain above seasonal normal through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...MVFR conditions across the region
overnight with periods of IFR at SLK/MSS improving by early
morning. MVFR ceilings lift to VFR across the area after 12Z
Saturday with northwest winds becoming gusty at 10-20kts.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts to 40 kt. Definite RA, Definite PL, Definite
FZRA, Likely SN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ026-027-029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Deal/Lahiff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Deal/Lahiff/Neiles



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