Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 291947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS
BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION
REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND
NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE.
UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT.
PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND
WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A
FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES
VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE
PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR
50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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