Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281137
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will take place today and Wednesday. In fact...
record high temperatures will be possible on Wednesday as
temperatures climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. It will be dry
today...but increasing chances for rain showers are expected
tonight and especially on Wednesday. There may even be a few
thunderstorms over parts of the area Wednesday afternoon into
early evening. Cooler and drier weather moves into the region
Thursday and persists right through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 637 AM EST Tuesday...Other than a few tweaks to current
temperatures and dew points...going forecast in good shape.
Relatively quiet day today with increasing clouds as flow aloft
gradually becomes more southwest with time. High temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

Deeper moisture moves into the region tonight and continues into
Wednesday as southwest flow aloft becomes established over the
area. The increase in moisture will also lead to increasing
chances for rain showers tonight and especially on Wednesday.
The clouds and precipitation will keep low temperatures
generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the area.
Wednesday still looks to be the most interesting day with
stronger southwest flow aloft over the area. We continue to
expect above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s...which would set new record highs at a number of
locations. Above normal precipitable water values are expected
on Wednesday...2 to 3 times higher than normal for this time of
year...which will increase the potential for higher precipitation
amounts on Wednesday with any showers. There will also be the
potential for some thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as
instability develops across the area. The northern Adirondacks...
much of the Champlain Valley...and areas south of Route 2 in
Vermont will have the potential to see any of these storms. Flow
aloft will be rather strong and this could be a limiting factor
to developing organized convection as the shear may be too
strong given the limited instability that develops. The
hydrologic threat will also need to be monitored on Wednesday as
bursts of heavier precipitation will be taking place in
addition to some snowmelt and resulting runoff due to the
warmer temperatures. Rivers are starting off higher than the
last event and with the warmer temperatures...any rivers that
are still ice covered could see some ice breakup as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Tuesday...Strong shortwave and surface cold
front moving across forecast area Wednesday night with another
drop off in temperatures, although not as sudden as this past
Sat night. Limited instability as the front moves across VT
prior to Midnight Wed Ngt but an isolated chance of some
thunder. Instability and dynamics not as strong as last Sat
night. Rain showers changing to snow showers after Midnight with
some accumulation...lingering into first half of Thursday
across Higher elevations in Northern VT. Many valley locations
an inch or less but Mountains and NE VT could see 1-3 inches.

Whatever snow melt and subsequent run-off that occurs Tue-Wed ngt
will end as temperatures on Thu will hold steady in morning then
fall a bit in the afternoon. Highs only in U20s to M30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Tuesday...Cold cyclonic flow into region with the
core of the coldest air short-lived across the region Fri Ngt
with 850mb temps -25 to -30C by 12z Sat but then rebounding to
-10 to -15C and warming by 12z Sun.

The warm air advection on Sunday will bring about some snow and rain
showers with temperatures rebounding from 20s Fri/Sat to 30s/40 by
Sunday and Min T of -5 to +10 on Sat morning to 20s by Monday
morning.

Other than the rain/snow showers Sunday it will be mainly dry then a
potent northern stream system drops across Great Lakes into New
England Monday night through Tuesday with mixed wintry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Expect VFR conditions for much of the
period. Mainly mid and high level clouds will move across the
area through 18z before ceilings start to lower...but should
generally remain above 4000 feet this afternoon. There could be
some showers developing after 21z...but visibilities will
remain VFR through the whole period. We will start to see
visibilities lower into the 4-5 mile range after 06z as showers
become more numerous. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...

12Z Wednesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers
with variable cigs from VFR to IFR before low pressure and cold
front crosses the region Wed evening.

06Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Becoming Mainly VFR but ocnl snow
showers/flurries and MVFR/IFR conditions.

12z Saturday onward...Mainly VFR under high pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 PM EST Monday...We continue to watch Tuesday night
through Wednesday night time period closely for the potential
for additional river rises associated with several rounds of
showers and warm temperatures. Additional snowmelt and the
potential for river rises...especially given the already high
levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our
areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous
event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to
monitor for potential impacts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our
forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as
follows:

Burlington - 59 set in 1954
Montpelier - 53 set in 1991
St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954
Massena - 49 set in 1954

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...Taber/Neiles
CLIMATE...Evenson


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