Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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416
FXUS61 KBTV 171907
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through the
end of the week with fair and mild to warm temperatures expected by
late October standards. The next chance of appreciable precipitation
occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a strong cold front
crosses the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Tuesday...Quiet conditions will continue over
the next 36 hours and beyond as strong high pressure bridges
across the northeastern states with fair and dry weather
expected. A shortwave trough passing well north of the area
across central Quebec will continue to bring occasional mid to
high clouds across northern counties into tonight. Otherwise
mainly clear/sunny skies are expected by Wednesday into
Wednesday night as temperatures continue to moderate. With
southerly return flow well established, tonight`s low
temperatures will stay considerably milder than this morning,
generally bottoming out from the lower to mid 40s in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys to the mid to upper 30s in
the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. By Wednesday mean 925 mb
temperatures climb into the 10-12C range supporting afternoon
highs in the lower to mid 60s, with mainly 40s expected for
Wednesday night lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Area of surface high pressure
persists over the southeastern USA as weakening low over
northern Quebec attempts to drag a cold front near the
international border Thursday. With dry air in place over the
North Country - PWATS half inch or less - expect any moisture
from front to result in increased clouds, but no precipitation.
Behind the front and associated mid-upper level trough, ridging
at the surface and aloft build into the northeast. Ridging will
persist through the weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period,
starting in the 60s to near 70 on Thursday and cooler on Friday
behind the cold front, then rebounding back into the 60s to low
70s for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Sunday will be warm ahead of cold
front associated with longwave trough which will dig southward
from Ontario. This system will provide multiple chances for
showers into the middle of next week. PWATs look to increase to
around 1 inch, possibly more in strong SW flow. Wind channeling
up the valleys could result in strong gusty winds Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...No precipitation and mainly VFR through
the period under mainly scattered mid to high clouds in the
100-250 AGL range. Exception at KSLK later tonight (mainly
06-12Z Wed) where southwesterly flow will allow occasionally BKN
MVFR cigs in the 015-025 AGL range. Winds mainly south to
southwesterly 6 to 14 and gusty into the 18 to 28 kt range at
KBTV/KSLK/KMSS through 02Z, trending light southerly 4 to 8 kts
thereafter. A brief period of 30 to 40 kt southwesterly LLWS
around 020 AGL will also be possible at KMSS/KSLK/KRUT/KMPV in
the 02-08Z time frame.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, NY will be down for scheduled maintenance
today, Tuesday, October 17 through a good portion of Wednesday,
October 18 as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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