Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER









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