Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0445Z. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EWD
ACROSS VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATED NNEWD INTO
OUR REGION NEXT 1-3 HRS. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUASI- STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL GENERALLY 0.10-0.20"...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV


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