Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 252030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Tranquil early fall weather will persist through Monday, as a
large area of Canadian high pressure crosses the region. The crisp
air mass will allow areas frost to develop once again tonight,
with lows generally ranging through the 30s. Developing southerly
winds will allow for moderating temperatures on Monday, with high
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s in most valley
locations. A frontal system approaching from the west will bring
our next rainfall event Monday night into Tuesday.


As of 204 PM EDT Sunday...It`s another gorgeous early fall
afternoon across the North Country with temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 50s currently under sunny to mostly sunny skies.
Cyclonic flow from a departing trough continues to produce some
fair weather cumulus across Northeast Vermont, which will keep
temps down a bit in the low/mid 50s for highs, but elsewhere more
sunshine is being seen so temps will bump a few degrees from
current values to daily highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

For tonight, surface high pressure extending from James Bays
southward into the Northeast very slowly drifts eastward,
continuing to crest over the region. Any lingering clouds across
northeast Vermont will trend towards clear, and with little
airmass change from last night and winds aloft lighter, we should
see even better radiative cooling conditions than this morning.
Despite 925-850mb temps warmer than last night, surface temps
area-wide should be a few degrees cooler producing more areal
coverage of frost. Have gone ahead and hoisted frost advisories
and freeze warnings for just about all of the BTV CWA, excluding
Grand Isle County where warmer Lake Champlain waters should keep
temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. Elsewhere, lows will widely
ranging through the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the
Northeast Kingdom and locally low/mid 20s in the colder hollows of
the Northern Adirondacks (i.e. KSLK). In addition, unlike last
night where winds aloft mitigated fog development, expect to see
some patchy dense fog develop in the usual climo favored river
valleys after midnight.

On Monday, the aforementioned high shifts off the New England
coast allowing winds to shift to the south and temperatures to
warm to more seasonal values in the mid to upper 60s. We`ll start
the Monday under full sunshine with any morning fog burning off,
but as we progress into the afternoon we anticipate some
increasing mid and upper level clouds from west as a large closed
low approaches. Any rain showers associated with this system
should hold off until Monday night though.


As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...Models continue to be consistent with
large 500mb trough associated with surface closed low pressure
system over southwestern Ontario with a frontal boundary extending
southward across the eastern Great Lakes moving eastward. This
system will bring a strong 850mb jet of 35-45kts across the region
from west to east Monday night and PWATs greater than 1 inch.
Latest NAM and GFS show low level deformation with the front
weakening as it moves across the North Country Tuesday morning.
Therefore expect best chances for rain showers across Northern New
York and especially in SW facing slopes as the low level jet will
lead to shadowing affects on leeward facing slopes and valleys.

On Tuesday, bulk of precip will affect the Green Mountains and
Northeast Kingdom but with SW flow continuing and the cold front
bringing cooler air over Lake Ontario, the St Lawrence valley
could see some lake effect rain showers. Expect precip to end
Tuesday night as the frontal system moves into the Atlantic, while
the 500mb low retrogrades towards Chicago.


As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...With 500mb low becoming cutoff, there
could still be slight to low chances for rain showers throughout
the period as models have difficulty determining movement of the
low. It does appear that bulk of energy will be south and west
with light northeast flow persisting over the North Country. This
will keep clouds around with temperatures during the day reaching
the 60s and and at night generally in the 40s throughout the long


.AVIATION /21Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18Z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions are once again expected
through the period, with the typical exception being the high
likelihood of VLIFR in FG/FZFG at KSLK/KMPV from 05-13Z. North-
Northwest winds 8-10 knots with gusts 16-20 knots persist through
the daylight hours, then abates to nearly calm overnight.

Outlook 18z Monday through Friday...

18z Mon - 00z Tue: Mainly VFR.

00z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered showers.

00z Wed - 00z Sat: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs.


VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004-007-
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ002-005-006-
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026-027-
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ028-035-087.


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