Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
THOUGH...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME
REFLECTIVITIES MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA...THOUGH AIRMASS IS MAINLY
TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOSEST OB THAT HAS
HAD RAIN IS OTTAWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







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