Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
PROVIDE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO WE`LL BE CLOSE
TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 5000-8000 FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON



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