Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271119
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 80s to
around 90. A weak disturbance will pass just to our north and may
help kick off a few showers or thunderstorms near the Canadian
border. Better chances for showers and storms arrives on Thursday
as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Other than a
few showers over the southern areas on Friday...the weekend is
shaping up to be dry with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall should be a relatively quiet
day across the area. Fog continues in favored areas...especially
in Vermont...before sunshine develops all areas. The idea of today
being the warmest day of the week looks to be on track with highs
in the 80s to lower 90s. Weak forcing will exist just north of the
Canadian border later in the day and that could result in a few
showers or thunderstorms...but most of the area will stay dry today.

Tonight - Any lingering convection comes to an end early with lows
generally in the 60s. We may be looking at fog developing later
tonight in the typical locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday continues to look like the
best day for convection as a more well defined shortwave trough
moves into the region. Like the idea of a chance for thunderstorms
all areas that is already in the current forecast and will
continue with that idea. Deep layer shear is weak and instability
is not that impressive. Thus not anticipating any strong or severe
storms at this time. High temperatures will be in the 80s. Look
for the showers and storms to gradually weaken Thursday night.
Convective potential decreases on Friday and wants to be more
focused down across southern New England with our southern areas
on the fringe of the showers or storms. So most of the area has a
good chance of not seeing anything with high temperatures right
around seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Trends in the data continue to
support the idea of a dry west to northwest flow aloft across the
area for the weekend. Will therefore keep Saturday and Sunday dry
with high temperatures right around seasonal normals. Ridging
aloft tries to build in for early next week and this should result
in a warming trend with highs in the 80s for much of the area by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12z Thursday...Expect periods of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at
KSLK and KMPV through 14z due to low clouds and fog...otherwise VFR
conditions are expected everywhere in the area. There may be a few
showers up near the Canadian Border between 21z and 03z. Winds
will generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook 12z Thursday through Sunday...

12z Thu - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Thursday
and Friday.

00z Sat - 00z Mon: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Evenson/KGM


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