Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM


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