Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 232313
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
713 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will be felt across the
region through the weekend. West to northwesterly flow in the
low and middle levels of the atmosphere will keep the cool and
dry air reinforced through the weekend. Weak upper level
disturbances will move through the region and generate isolated
light rainshowers, but most of the area will remain dry.
Temperatures will be near to a bit below their seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 657 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes to the
forecast. Had some gusty showers move quickly thru the Champlain
Valley around 22Z, producing a gust to 29kt at BTV. That
activity is generally dissipating across n-central VT at 23Z.
There is one more line of shower activity across the St.
Lawrence Valley, and have made some minor adjustments to PoPs to
account for brief showers next 1-3 hours mainly across far nrn
NY. This activity should also diminish with loss of surface
heating/steep low-level lapse rates. Otherwise a cool and dry
overnight period expected. Enough of a surface pressure
gradient to keep westerly low level flow and prevent decoupling
and ideal radiational cooling, with lows mainly in the 50s. The
usual cooler pockets should see mins dip into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Wednesday...500 mb trough remains over the
northeast during this period with periodic shortwave troughs
rotating through. In particular one late Thursday will increase
clouds, however moisture remains too limited for anything other
than slight chance for showers in the higher terrain. Otherwise
dry. Low heights associated with upper trough and overall west
to northwest flow will reinforce cool temps and dry humidity.
Temps to average a couple degrees below normal but still
seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Wednesday...Models show one more shortwave
translating through the trough Saturday night before the trough
finally moves east and upper level riding enters the region. At
the surface, northerly flow will become southerly. At this point
the long term forecast looks predominantly dry. Temperatures
will also continue to be seasonal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Last weak line of energy brings a
slight chances of showers next couple of hours for the NY TAF
sites before loss of daytime heating ends the activity. MVFR
cigs expected at KSLK overnight, though MPV isn`t out of the
question either. Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...NRR/Verasamy


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