Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 282028
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through
this evening. A cold front will move through the north country
overnight and will bring cooler and drier air to the region on
Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Monday
night and will remain through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 428 PM EDT Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms across the
northern portion of the forecast area at this time will slowly
come to an end around midnight tonight. A cold front will move
south from Canada overnight. Expecting low temperatures to be
mainly in the 60s overnight.

Expecting skies to start out mostly cloudy Monday morning, and
then becoming partly sunny by Monday afternoon as drier air moves
into the region. Expecting highs mainly in the 70s on Monday.
There could be some sprinkles Monday morning, but feel this is
isolated, so have not included in the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...Surface front will be along the New
England coast Monday evening at the start of the short term
period, with 500 mb shortwave trough exiting the coast. Surface
high pressure and shortwave 500 mb ridging over the forecast area
Monday night with dry air. Surface dewpoints fall into the 50s and
1000-500mb mean rh drops below 30 percent. With clear skies and
light winds, good radiational cooling scenario, and lows Monday
night in the mid/upper 40s in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom, and 50s elsewhere. Will put in some patchy valley fog for
the usual places Monday night as well for potential of radiational
fog development.

Southerly flow returns quickly Tuesday when high pressure shifts
east of the area, and winds back in advance of next approaching
trough. Dry air also shifts east, and precipitable water increases
tuesday to around 1 1/4 inch, a little above normal. A weak
surface trough will move out ahead of an approaching 500 mb
shortwave trough and provide a focus for showers mainly in the
north Tuesday night. Temps Tuesday in the lower 80s except upper
70s in the Northeast Kingdom of VT and Adirondacks, supported by
850mb temps around 13c. Warmer temps Tuesday night than Monday
night with warmer southerly flow, cloud cover and higher dewpoints
all to limit radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday is a transition day with
ridge over the western US and flat trough in the east. 500 mb low
moving through eastern Canada in northwest flow around the western
ridge. Surface trough pushes on through the area Wednesday and is
focus for afternoon convection, with upper trough lagging by 12
hours or so. Small amount of instability with capes near 500 j/kg.
At this point will continue with just showers and no mention of
thunder. Best chances for rain will be during the day Wednesday,
and lingering Wednesday night over higher terrain in areas favored
by upslope west to northwest low level flow.

Cold front arrives Wednesday night, and upper trough carves out
lower heights. Noticeably cooler and drier Thursday thru Saturday
with nil rain chances for the remainder of the forecast period.
850mb temps near 5-6C supporting max surface temps in the 60s to
around 70 depending on elevation. This will be a few degrees below
their climatological normals for this time of year.

Temperatures rebound late in the weekend with surface high
shifting east for warmer southerly flow on Sunday. Building ridge
in the east raises heights Saturday and Sunday, and 850 mb temps
back to 12-14C, with max surface temps those days in the low 80s.
Will see wide swings in temperatures the last half of the forecast
period with clear skies and warm sunny days, and also clear skies
and light winds at night conducive to good radiational cooling.

Initially lows will be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday night, with a
cooling trend for the remainder of the week. By Saturday morning
patchy frost is possible at Saranac Lake and across the deeper
valleys of the northeast kingdom. For Friday night/Saturday
morning lows will range from the low to mid 30s to upper
40s...except mid 50s near lake champlain. Average 1st frost at SLK
is Sept 7th...so pretty close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18Z Monday...Expecting showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the region this afternoon into early this evening.
Mainly VFR conditions expected with some areas of MVFR/IFR in
showers and thunderstorms til 03Z Sunday. Some areas of IFR/MVFR in
fog from mainly 05Z til 12Z Monday, especially in sheltered valley
locations that receive rainfall this afternoon and this evening.

Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...

18Z Monday through Thursday...mainly VFR through 18Z Wednesday, as
a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Some areas of
MVFR in scattered rain showers 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday,
as a cold front moves through the region.

Mainly VFR Thursday and Friday, as a ridge of high pressure builds
slowly southeast from Canada.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 428 PM EDT Sunday...A lake thunderstorm advisory for Lake
Champlain is in effect through this evening. Remember, winds and
waves will be locally higher in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.
A lake wind advisory for Lake Champlain is in effect through this
evening for south winds of 20 to 30 knots, and waves of 1 to 3
feet. Winds will diminish to 5 to 15 knots after midnight, and
waves will subside to 1 foot or less after midnight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...WGH
MARINE...WGH



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