Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281721
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN FROM FINGER LAKES TO
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF KITH AT 17Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA IN FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ERIE AND THE
NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003-004-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






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