Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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579
FXUS61 KBUF 021056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE THREAT IS
LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE NY STATE LINE NEAR 11Z. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RUN BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FOG.

RAIN SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN CLEARING
EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD
HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE
U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW
INVERSION. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
CENTRAL NEW YORK NEAR 11Z. HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM ALL TAFS BASED ON
CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPO TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AS THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCH TIME...CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO THE LOW MVFR RANGE THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ONLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT KJHW. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL
LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL SITES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP
RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



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