Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 282332
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION TOWARD KINGSTON
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A
BROAD/FLAT TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
BE VERY DRY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS...SO EXPECT AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF VIRGA BEFORE LIGHT SNOW ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND. FOLLOWING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL SATURATION...EXPECT A STRONGER
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO FORCE LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AFTER ABOUT 4AM OR SO WITH
ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING THROUGH DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE THE SNOW SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY IN THIS COLD AND DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN BELOW ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY LATE EVENING...WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
RAMPS UP AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA TAKING A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO
FORM ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE WAVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING A WIDE
ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE NOSE OF A BELT OF
35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THIS AREA REACHES
AROUND 2.5 G/KG...WHICH USING THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA.

THE OTHER AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AMOUNTS APPROACH 4-6 INCHES...SO HAVE GONE
WITH AN ADVISORY FOR LEWIS COUNTY AS WELL. THE GREATER ADVISORY
AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT COUNTY.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THE ASCENT APPEARS TO REMAIN VERY
WEAK...WITH AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY AND 1-2 INCHES
SUNDAY NIGHT IN STEADY LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL BRING TOTALS INTO THE
2-3 INCH RANGE.

DESPITE THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MILDER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO
NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LINGER SNOW CHANCES LONGEST AS
THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX PASS
TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY LEAD UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW TENTHS
ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH DURING
THE DAY.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
SUBSIDENCE BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK ENDS THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY
FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL FORM EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH. THIS WILL TRIGGER A COLORADO LOW
WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENING WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME
OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION TYPE...
PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WHEN THE MOISTURE REACHES NEW YORK TO
SUPPORT PRECIP TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANGEOVER TO A BRIEF ICY
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO THEN
QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE WARMER AIR MIXES DOWN CHANGING
PRECIPITATION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS
SURGE TOWARD 40 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE LOWS COLD FRONT. A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY BEFORE THE BRIEF ICY MIX ARRIVES.
ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 12Z MODEL QPF
SHOWS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID IS POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT SNOW
PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING
PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT
BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL
QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING LOW
CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BASED ON
LOCAL RESEARCH BUT THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS
A STRONG INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WOULD INDICATE THE START OF THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. WRAP AROUND
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. A BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM NEAR 40 EARLY
IN THE MORNING TO THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND
09Z OR SO WITH VSBY DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH VSBY COMING DOWN TO IFR AS IT DOES SO. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT BEFORE A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT
STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






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