Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 212338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SETS UP A
FAIRLY BRISK NNE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN CAUSES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. THIS IS WELL SHOWN BY
RADAR...EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THIS IN
THE QPF FIELD. STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THIS AREA LIKELY TO DROP SSW FOLLOWING THE 700-500
MB FLOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE DUE TO THE NNE
SURFACE FLOW IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) BUT CANNOT BE SEEN CLEARLY ON
RADAR.

EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN MANY
AREAS. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE THE FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE THICK
CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN 925MB WINDS LIKELY
KEYED THE LOWERING IN CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 30 KT WINDS
ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 06Z EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY IN SOME SPOTS.

THESE WINDS DIMINISH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
AND A HIGHER INVERSION LIKELY TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE LATE TONIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CAN SOMETIMES BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING AND SCATTERING CIGS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW SUCH
AS THIS. TAFS WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN... RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE
RIVERS. FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING
SOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE
GORGE.

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





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