Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270914
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
314 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Minor changes to the short term forecast this morning, with
models remaining in good agreement on disturbance dropping into
the region today and Saturday.

Although the strongest energy remaining to our west and northwest
across north central Montana today, a Pacific front will move into
the area this afternoon. This should bring increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms across western areas. Raised pops across
western zones slightly, and extended slight pops a bit further
east for lingering showers this evening. The best area for
stronger thunderstorms appears to be around Billings by mid
afternoon, with small hail and erratic gusty winds, as cold pool
moving east combines with good pwats at peak heating, and likely
multiple outflow boundaries from earlier activity. Any stronger
activity should taper off quickly after sunset.

Zonal flow aloft develops over the region Saturday. Weak upper
level energy and vorticity will continue to stream across the
area, bringing continued potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but with less coverage overall than recent days.
Eastern zones should see best chances with improved CAPES.

Afternoon highs Friday and Saturday will be around normal with
readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Gilstad

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...


Models struggling with consistency for Monday-Tuesday storm
system. Latest Canadian and GFS models drop a stronger wrapped
up system from the Pacific NW through the area during this period, while
the ECMWF is faster bringing the energy across as an open wave and
keeps main area of dynamics well north of the area along the
Canadian border. Given the differences in the models have kept
chance pops going and will await better consistency before making
adjustments for this period. Models come to better agreement with
strengthening ridge of high pressure developing mid to late week
and continuing into next weekend. This will trend drier and
warmer heading through the end of the week. Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


A few areas of stratus/fog are possible across the area this
morning with local ifr conditions through 16z. Isolated shower
activity late this morning over western zones will evolve into
scattered thunderstorms by mid day, spreading into central zones
around Billings by 23z. Wind gusts to 35kts and small hail will be
possible with storms this afternoon/evening along with brief heavy
rainfall. Additional stratus and fog development are possible
Friday night into Saturday morning. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 048/067 046/075 049/070 046/063 044/068 046/075
    6/T 63/T    21/B    25/T    34/T    42/W    11/B
LVM 063 041/063 039/071 043/065 041/060 039/068 042/075
    6/T 63/T    21/B    34/T    43/T    32/W    11/U
HDN 072 047/070 045/077 049/074 045/064 042/068 045/077
    3/T 53/T    20/B    24/T    34/T    43/W    11/B
MLS 071 051/072 049/078 053/074 050/065 046/067 047/077
    2/T 24/T    21/U    34/T    44/T    43/T    21/B
4BQ 071 046/071 045/077 049/075 046/066 043/067 043/077
    2/T 24/T    21/B    23/T    33/T    33/T    21/B
BHK 069 046/071 044/076 049/072 045/065 042/064 041/073
    2/T 16/T    31/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    21/B
SHR 069 043/068 042/075 045/072 043/063 040/067 042/075
    4/T 33/T    22/T    25/T    34/T    43/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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