Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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124
FXUS65 KBYZ 232106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
206 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Ridge building over the area will keep most of the area dry with
warmer temperatures on tap. Southwest winds into the southern
Beartooth/Absaroka mountains will bring a chance of snow tonight
into tomorrow for the Cooke City area. Lee side troffing will
increase foothills winds tonight with strong wind gusts expected
from Livingston to Nye by late tonight. Gusts of 55 to 65 mph will
likely continue for these areas through Wednesday night and maybe
into the day on Thursday.

Pacific cold front arrives mid day Thursday. This feature should
bring an end to strong wind potential in the foothills. It will
also increase shower chances late afternoon through Thursday
night. There is good QG forcing and upper level divergence to
support showers, but will continue to fight downslope wind
gradient drying during this period. Kept pops in the chance
category for most areas. Precipitation type will start as rain but
should turn to snow fairly quickly in most areas due to wet bulb
effects. Overall precipitation accumulations will be light with
this system, though the Cooke City area may see half a foot of
snow plus over the next several days. Road conditions by Friday
morning could be slick in some areas.

Lows tonight will stay fairly steady in the wind prone areas, with
the rest of the area dropping into the teens and 20s. Highs
tomorrow mainly in the 40s. Expect 40s on Thursday as well, but
frontal timing will play a role in how warm it gets. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Models were in very good agreement with upcoming synoptic pattern
in the extended, but did differ on temperature details. Used model
blended temperatures throughout the forecast.

Upper trough will shift E out of the area on Friday. There will be
a chance of snow over and near the mountains. Pacific moisture
over the region Fri. night will bring a slight chance of snow to
the area. Heights then build over the area through Sunday night.
A warm front approaches the area on Saturday and moves through the
area through Sun. night. The front will bring a slight chance of
snow for Sat. night, then a chance of rain and snow on Sunday into
Sunday evening. Some precipitation will linger in the E late Sun.
night. Monday will be dry under the upper ridge, then another
chance of rain and snow will move in on Tuesday, as a shortwave
moves into the area.

Temperatures will be near normal through the period with the
warmest day expected on Monday. There will be periods of lee
troughing through the period. Enhanced the gap flow winds for
Friday, and Sun. night through Tuesday. Will need to watch the
period for possible wind headlines. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

WSW surface winds will increase this evening along the foothills
and KLVM, and become strong by Wednesday morning. Expect gusts to
50 to 55 kt late tonight through Wed. morning. The gusty winds
will persist through Wed. afternoon. Expect mountain obscurations
tonight over the Beartooths/Absarokas. VFR will otherwise prevail
through Wednesday. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/042 025/044 018/035 019/034 019/041 026/043 026/036
    00/B    01/B    51/B    21/B    23/O    21/E    14/O
LVM 032/047 031/043 017/033 019/034 025/044 029/045 027/036
    00/N    03/W    43/S    32/S    33/O    21/N    24/S
HDN 015/040 021/043 017/035 015/032 013/037 018/041 020/035
    00/B    01/E    51/B    22/S    23/O    31/B    13/S
MLS 012/035 016/039 021/031 013/023 007/030 016/035 021/028
    00/B    00/B    21/B    22/S    22/S    31/B    12/S
4BQ 012/041 022/044 022/036 018/031 013/037 021/042 026/036
    00/B    00/B    41/B    22/S    22/O    21/B    12/S
BHK 014/039 019/042 022/033 013/024 004/031 016/039 022/033
    00/B    00/B    21/B    22/S    12/S    21/B    12/S
SHR 018/043 028/044 020/034 014/031 015/040 021/043 025/036
    00/B    00/B    41/B    21/B    22/O    20/B    13/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to noon MST
      Thursday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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