Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 232047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS WITH
OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE KLVM
TAF SITE. HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF ALL AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE KSHR TAF LOCATION COULD SEE SOME ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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