Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 230311
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
911 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery showing smoke from northern and western fires
drifting south to southeast over the area. North to northeast
surface winds are progged to turn east late this evening through
the overnight hours and this should keep smoke in parts of south
central Montana and northern Wyoming tonight. High resolution
models hold smoke over the area tonight into early morning. Made
further adjustments to smoke coverage to align with surrounding
offices. Also dropped the Red Flag an hour early due to rising
humidity levels and decreasing winds. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

The biggest concern in the short term will be convection tomorrow
over the mountains and then a front on Monday. Conditions will
still be dry tomorrow, but winds still look to be light enough
that Red Flag concerns are not there. However, as energy works
into the mountains there is a chance for thunderstorms. Given the
dry conditions there could be some fire weather concerns with the
lightning. A cold front will move through Monday again shifting
winds to the northwest. The timing on the front currently does not
look to produce as much of a fire weather concern. However, if
the timing shifts a few hours this could become an issue, so this
will continue to be closely monitored. There is also a chance for
some more convection on Monday. There is a little more instability
and shear, but given the timing of the front, these ingredients
may not be realized. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Cooler temperatures look to prevail across the region through the
beginning of the long term period before conditions become drier
and warmer by the weekend.

East and northeast winds will move in Tuesday and early Wednesday
morning which will keep the better moisture and precipitation in
the mountains and over Wyoming along cooler conditions filtering
in. Expecting temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons in the lower elevations with slightly cooler
conditions expected along mountain foothills. A weak disturbance
will cross the region by Wednesday evening which should allow a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms region wide as better
moisture works its way back north into our region. With some shear
expected over the region can`t rule out a few strong storms in
the evening and overnight hours. This disturbance passes through
the region by Thursday evening with conditions drying out and
becoming warmer as move move into Friday and the weekend. Dobbs

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of smoke will be over the region tonight into Sunday. VFR
will prevail over the area, but KBIL and KMLS may have MVFR
conditions tonight into early Sunday. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/095 066/090 063/086 064/089 065/091 064/094 065/094
    00/K    11/U    22/T    12/T    32/T    11/U    11/U
LVM 056/091 057/090 055/085 056/086 056/088 056/091 055/090
    00/U    12/T    23/T    13/T    33/T    12/T    12/T
HDN 063/097 063/092 062/089 063/091 063/093 062/096 063/095
    00/K    11/U    22/T    12/T    32/T    11/U    11/U
MLS 065/096 069/094 064/089 064/091 067/093 066/096 067/096
    00/K    01/U    11/B    01/B    24/T    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/095 067/095 064/089 063/090 064/090 063/095 065/095
    00/K    11/U    21/T    22/T    34/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 060/092 065/095 060/087 058/087 061/090 061/093 062/094
    00/U    11/U    11/B    02/T    23/T    11/U    11/U
SHR 059/093 059/092 058/087 059/086 059/089 057/093 057/092
    00/K    11/U    22/T    24/T    33/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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