Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301818
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT TO OUR NORTH AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT A LITTLE WEST
OVERNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

PWAT EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 2.O0 INCHES WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. FORCING ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH SATURDAY. 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THE LOCAL MODEL IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
SATURDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A
WEST-EAST GRADIENT OF PWAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WEST TO OVER 2.0 INCHES EAST. THE NAM IS MUCH
DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR SATURDAY BUT BOTH SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS
EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WITH LIMITED VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP IN ALL
TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBYS. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD SEE MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB 09Z-12Z. AFTER 12Z...VFR ALL TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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