Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






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