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000
FXUS62 KCAE 101144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERLY AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER OUR AREA. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY
WARM. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELIEVE THE DRY RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A DAMPENING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE IN
THE WEST PART BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE GFS
WAS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
STRONG SHEAR WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK INSTABILITY. UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. WE HELD
OFF INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR OUR AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY LOWS
BELOW FREEZING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED WETTER ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS POPS
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG MIXING
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND
10 MPH AFTER 15Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE 17Z-
22Z. A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS
HAS LED TO FLOODING AT SOME AREA RIVER AND LAKE FORECAST POINTS.
CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON FLOOD WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HC