Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 240814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
414 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

An upper level trough will remain over the eastern US. However,
a Bermuda high will provide warm and humid conditions today
with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
A weak cool front will stall and dissipate over the area around
mid-week. Another front will affect the region for the weekend.


A shortwave moving through the area will allow showers to
continue through morning. The showers that are currently over
the CSRA will progress slowly eastward. They will move out of
the forecast area by noon, then there will be a brief break in
activity before scattered thunderstorms develop again this
afternoon. Precipitable water will remain above 2 inches and
storm motion will be slow, so heavy rain and flooding is again a
threat. There could also be strong outflow winds. Small hail is
less of a threat, but not completely impossible. Temperatures
will be cooler than yesterday, but it will still be warm and
humid with highs in the low 90s.


The synoptic pattern holds an upper level trough over the eastern
part of the nation with a ridge in the west.

An upper level trough will cross the northeastern states through
Tuesday. A short wave over the lower MS valley is forecast to move
east across the Deep South into the southeastern states through
Wednesday. This will push a weak front into the forecast area on

A warm...moist and unstable airmass will continue over the region.
PWAT will range from 1.5 to 2.2. inches across the CWA with lifted
indices around minus 8C during the afternoons. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly during the afternoon
and evening. The combination of steep low level lapse rates
each afternoon and weak shortwave energy as well as mid level
dry air could lead to a few strong to severe storms each day.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Temperatures are
forecast to be near normal with highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.


Models indicated a slightly drier airmass over the region Thursday
with the lowest chance for afternoon and evening convection for the

The main global models showed a digging shortwave moving into the
southeastern states on Friday. This will cause an increase in the
deep southwesterly flow, allowing moisture to return as well and
increasing chances of convection. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicated
a strongly amplified pattern for July with a significantly deep
trough over the southeastern states for next weekend. Unsettled
weather is foreseen for the the weekend with high temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.


Thunderstorms threat has diminished but scattered showers are
still possible through morning. Increased moisture will also
cause MVFR/IFR ceilings at times. Fog appears a lower threat
than stratus due to low level jet, but with rainfall cant rule
out visibility restrictions, especially at AGS. Cumulus will
redevelop during the late morning hours through the end of the
period as another round of convection is expected this

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
restrictions in mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms through
Wednesday. We could also see some morning cig restrictions from
stratus. The convection looks to decrease on Thursday, but
should pick back up again by Friday.




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