Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS ON NORTH. OUR FORECAST FAVORED CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO HIGH CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
ONE HALF INCH.

THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLIPS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE
MIDLANDS TONIGHT. WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION...LEAVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. STILL EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN T FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY MORNING
LOWS. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA WITH WSR-
88D NETWORK SHOWING RAIN AROUND ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN WILL TRACK EAST OF THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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