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000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$