Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 281127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WITH A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. COOL
TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
AND THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS WEAK WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. WE MAINTAINED LOW POPS. USED THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THE WEAK WEDGE PATTERN.
THE ECMWF HAS INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED H5 TROUGHING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
RUN WAS CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH LESS TROUGHING AND MOISTURE. THE
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM NEAR 50 PERCENT TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT...CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EKD MOS...AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AROUND 7 KNOTS BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z AS THE INVERSION ERODES THEN
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 17Z ONWARD. WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.