Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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238
FXUS62 KCAE 121614
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1114 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry cold front will cross the forecast area late this morning
with high pressure and reinforcing cold air moving into the
region this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will control
the region for Wednesday through Thursday with unsettled weather
for Friday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A series of dry cold fronts will move through the forecast area (FA)
through tonight, ushering in cooler and drier air, with a wind shift
to NW. The pressure gradient over our FA will tighten as low
pressure intensifies well to our NE, leading to breezy conditions
this afternoon, and continuing tonight over warmer area lakes. Lake
Wind Advisory in effect from 1pm to 4am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region for Wednesday through
Thursday with the next system moving into the region Thursday
night. Expect some increasing clouds Thursday night as some Gulf
moisture begins returning northward while low pressure digs into
the mid MS Valley. Models continue to depict the moisture return
as a split stream with much of the Gulf moisture remaining south
of the area Thursday night with the northern stream only
reaching the TN Valley and remaining north of the area. With the
split stream and dry air to overcome have remained without
mention of rain Thursday night. High temperatures Wednesday
afternoon will only reach the mid to upper 40s and moderating
to the mid and upper 50s on Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows
will be in the low 30s Wednesday night and the mid to upper 30s
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weather for Friday through Monday remains unsettled with models
continuing to make run to run changes and differences in timing
and intensity of features between models. Models do agree upper
level trough swinging through the forecast area Friday night
with much of the moisture associated with the system maintaining
a split flow around the area. Have remained with slight chance
pops for Friday due to low confidence and pops quickly exiting
the area Friday night as the system ejects from the region. High
pressure will quickly build back into the region Saturday and
with the upper level pattern becoming less amplified systems
will begin quickly crossing the area. On Sunday the high
pressure will move away from the region as the next low pressure
system develops over the southern Plains region and ushers Gulf
moisture northward. Models differ with timing and intensity of
this system however agree on rain returning to the forecast area
Sunday afternoon through Monday. Temperatures through the long
term will be below normal Friday and Saturday with near normal
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind a series
of dry cold fronts. Breezy conditions expected this afternoon into
early tonight. No fog/stratus due to wind and dry air.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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