Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 240903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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