Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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193
FXUS62 KCAE 261748
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
148 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather with warming temperatures expected through Saturday.
A frontal boundary will provide a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly for northern areas. A
front will slowly move through the region Monday and Tuesday
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much change through tonight. Surface high pressure will
continue off to the south, along with weak upper level ridging.
Dry airmass remains in place through the overnight hours. Mixing
near the surface should inhibit any fog formation across the
area. Overnight lows milder with readings in the lower to middle
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper high over the Gulf of Mexico, with upper low over the Canadian
prairie provinces with trough extending S/SW into the
Rockies/Central CONUS. Upper impulses and surface waves to ride by
mainly to our north, with surface high axis remaining to our south.
Surface front to shift towards the northern portions of the
forecast area late Sat/Sun, with increasing atmospheric
moisture. Latest guidance indicates slight chance to chance
POPs mainly over the northern and central Midlands Sun aftn.
Continued warming trend in temps expected with high in the lower
to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models indicate upper trough to shift into the E CONUS, then
begin to lift north. Surface front to move into our region
Monday, and either slowly move through Tue or possibly stall
near or just south of our region Wed, and possibly shift back
north as a warm front late week. The future positioning of this
front is somewhat uncertain at this time. Mainly low chance pops
for much of the period, with Wednesday being the driest day.
High temperatures mostly in the middle to upper 80s except some
lower 90s southern counties on Monday. Lows will be in the
middle to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Dry airmass remains over the region. Southwest to west winds
between 5 and 10 knots, diminishing to light and variable after
sunset. Good low-level mixing off the surface will inhibit any
fog/stratus formation overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected
through Saturday night. A cold front will approach Sunday and be
stalled in the region through early next week. The front will
help support scattered thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent rains have prompted River Flood Warnings and Advisories
for a few of our river forecast points. Please consult our
webpage for the latest more detailed information.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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