Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 171043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS IN THE AREA SO
BRIEF PERIOD LOW CEILINGS THROUGH 13Z EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AGS/DNL AND OGB TERMINALS. VFR DEVELOPING 14Z-15Z ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING...LIKELY NORTH OF CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MAINLY EAST OR NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF IFR/MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE NEAR OGB THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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