Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 270807
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...MAKING IT QUITE PLEASANT FOR
LATE AUGUST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AROUND 90...FOR MOST LOCALES BUT WARMEST INLAND. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD TIP ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATE WITH A LAZY SEA
BREEZE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/28. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE LATE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LAZILY PUSHES THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL MAKE FOR
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRES
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/
MARINE...






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