Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 010143
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
943 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING THOUGH WE EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
UP THE FL/GA COAST. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5" WHICH IS QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM
OVER COASTAL LAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE VORT MOVES
NNE.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEFORE
THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 70S
AND FAIRLY WET SOILS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WE MAINTAINED
THIS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE LOCAL VICINITY.
ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SIT ATOP THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER A
CHANNEL OF VORTICITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE EASTERN
GULF/FLORIDA PENINSULA TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER IT WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. TUESDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION OVER LAND WILL LARGELY DIMINISH AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL NOT DRASTICALLY
CHANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FROM THE NORTH AS A VORT
MAX TRAVERSES INDIANA/OHIO AND MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
WITH LACK OF ANY PROMINENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED FOR NEXT 24 HRS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR STRATUS OR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. WE DID MAINTAIN 6 MILES
VSBY AT BOTH SITES LATE TONIGHT AND HINTED AT SOME LOWER CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND
FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN...HOWEVER A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ON AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...ECT/JRL



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