Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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407
FXUS61 KCLE 041137
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A RIDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN AREA IS STILL
BACK WEST OVER WESTERN INDIANA. STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
PIVOT AROUND AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN
THE EAST AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND BRING WITH IT A SWATH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST AND
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE WHERE AIR
MASS IS STABLE FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE...WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY
RAIN DROPS TODAY. SO WILL TREND FORECAST A TAD BIT DRIER OVER THE
EAST DURING THE TODAY PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AND WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A TAD BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. I AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 IN THE WEST AND 60
TO 63 DEGREES IN THE EAST. NOW...THE LAKE SHORE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL
DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH THEN FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL BE REDUCED.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY SEE
EARLY HIGHS BEFORE LAKE INFLUENCE TAKES OVER IN THE NORTHEAST LAKE
SHORE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
AROUND ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WHERE IT WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROADER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EAST COAST LOW WILL
EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE
BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN BEGIN TO PULL OUT TO THE EAST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER
THOUGH.

ONE LAST SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE QPF BUT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA GIVEN THE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN BACK VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND CMC BUILD THE RIDGE AND KEEP
THE RAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST
MOVING EAST COAST HIGHS AWAY. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER TREND IN THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND THERE IS
SOME DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY SPREAD EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AS WELL AS LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN ANY OF THE TAF
FORECASTS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
LAKE ERIE TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD FLIP TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THE SURFACE LOWS MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BY SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THE WIND AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK



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