Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 232330
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016
High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will move to the eastern
seaboard overnight where it will linger into Thursday. Moisture
will move back into the region on Wednesday as the south flow
increases ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the local
area Thursday night or early Friday. High pressure will build
across the eastern Great Lakes by the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
No significant changes for the early evening update. Updated the
hourly clouds and hourly temperatures based on the current
Original "Tonight" discussion...
Cumulus clouds will dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating
leaving mostly clear skies with just some thin cirrus. Clouds will
approach from the west, but they shouldn`t reach the area until
Wednesday. As the high slides east overnight we will start to see
some increasing thicknesses. Not expecting decoupling except in
sheltered areas. This combined with warming we can look for
temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than last night with most
areas in the upper 50s (east) to low 60s (west).
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Isentropic lift will move into the area starting in the West on
Wednesday morning. Based on forecast soundings we will see an
increase in cloud cover early, however the onset of precip will
take a bit of time to overcome the dry air in place (current PW of
0.75") especially in the east. An upper level vort max will
approach the area from the west by late afternoon. This combined
with a strengthening low level jet will provide our best
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. The forcing will move
east overnight but the moisture pooling/advection from the Gulf
should support scattered convection as dew points climb to around
70F. Thursday will be the best chance for storms as the
instability rises to over 1500j/kg. With upper level height falls
and a strengthening jet we will see the potential for strong storms
mainly along and ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will push south of the area Friday morning where it will become
diffuse. The front won`t result in notable height falls, however
it will reduce the humidity and cut off the feed from the Gulf.
High pressure will support dry conditions Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures will be warming into the low to mid 80s on Wednesday
and Thursday, with lower 80s on Friday. Main question mark for
the highs will be the extent of the cloud cover. Less cloud cover
in the east on Wednesday will allow that area to warm into the
low/mid 80s. Thursday will be mostly cloudy, but breaks in the
clouds are expected as the front approaches. Lows will warm into
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Typical mid summer weather is expected during the long term period.
Unfortunately those wanting fall like weather will have to wait
another week as a warm and humid airmass establishes itself over the
region. Have had to make only minor changes to the forecast today.
High temperatures will average about 5 degrees above normal with
lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Best chances for precip during
the period will come on Monday as a weakening frontal system sags
south across the region. Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar with
this scenario so will stick with chance precip chances for now.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR for the majority of the TAF period. High level clouds will be
followed by an increase in mid level ceilings across the west in
the morning. Showers/thunderstorms enter the picture after 18Z
from the west...just a PROB30 mention of them for now. Too dry for
any morning BR at the terminals.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms starting
Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Another 48 hours or so of quiet weather is expected on the lake with
light southerly flow. The next significant weather maker will be a
cold front crossing the lake late Thursday into Thursday night. In
addition to some showers and storms the front will flip the winds to
the west or northwest. There is a small window for close to small
craft type winds behind the front but by daybreak Friday winds
should be back under 15 knots. High pressure will pass to the north
over the weekend with the flow first becoming easterly and
eventually southerly by Sunday as the surface ridges moves off to