Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 242006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
306 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

A front will remain near the area until low pressure moves across
the lakes into Canada by Sunday afternoon pulling the front east of
the area. High pressure will spread north into the region for Monday
and Tuesday before shifting off to the east for Wednesday.


Low pressure moving NE across the lakes into Sunday afternoon will
cause the warm front in southern Ohio to lift north across the area
tonight then quickly be followed by a cold front being pulled east
across the cwa late tonight and Sunday morning. This combination
will lead to moderate to heavy rain affecting the area tonight into
Sunday with the heavier rain mostly affecting the south two-thirds
of the cwa. Still can see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for parts of the
southeast counties so the flood watch will be left in place. The
airmass will probably become unstable enough for some thunder to
occur tonight and Sunday morning.

As the cold front sweeps east across the area Sunday morning, cooler
and drier air will push across the area. Winds around time of
frontal passage may gust to 40 mph in some places. The Erie PA
lakeshore may see gusts to 40 mph occur up to several hours before
the cold front due to enhanced downslope flow.

Temps will likely fall some on Sunday although the west will
probably clear out in time to see temps recover a few degrees for
the afternoon. Temps will be noticeably cooler for Sun night with
lows dropping into the lower 30s for much of the area.


The surface high will move slowly east across the Ohio Valley and
give us a chance to dry out with a nice stretch of early spring
weather the first half of the week. Winds will be light enough for a
lake breeze on Monday, otherwise forecast high temps 50ish.

The high will be east of the area on Tuesday and winds will come
around from the south. Patches of high clouds will show up but would
still expect plenty of sunshine. Forecast highs will be on the
warmer side of guidance given the warming air mass and increasing
high sun angle.

Several short waves are progged to eject from the western trough by
mid week but initially it looks as though the stronger waves will be
in the southern stream well south of the area. Warm advection will
increase but heights will be high Wednesday. I suspect it will be a
day with occasional virga, perhaps a sprinkle or a brief shower.
Guidance pops are generally in the "slight chance" range (15-24
percent) and that seems reasonable at this time. Temps are a little
tricky Wednesday. If we were to get some filtered sunshine we could
take a run at 60 but the forecast will be a bit conservative for now
in the event we have thicker clouds and sprinkles/showers. Forecast
highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 50s.


A trough and associated surface low will be moving in from the west
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring widespread rain to
the area -- there could even be a thunderstorm or two on Thursday.
The upper level trough will become a closed low Thursday afternoon
and move overhead Thursday night. This means will see a mix of rain
and snow late Thursday night into Friday and eventually we may see
all snow for a brief time on the back edge of the system Friday

A ridge will move in from the west Saturday and should dry everyone
out. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will rise into the middle and
upper 50s with temperatures Friday and Saturday topping out in the
lower 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.


.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Expect mostly MVFR with patches of IFR to persist until a cold front
sweeps east across the area the end of tonight and Sunday morning
ending the widespread shra and isolated tsra from west to east and
scattering the clouds. The lesser threat for tsra will be at TOL.

Mainly NE winds will turn to the south tonight and increase to be
gusting 22 to 32 knots late tonight and Sunday morning while then
veering to the WSW with the passage of a cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in rain and low ceilings Wed and Thu.


East winds will increase on Lake Erie early tonight as high pressure
slides across eastern Canada and low pressure begins to deepen over
the Mississippi Valley. Winds will begin to veer southerly overnight
and southwest by morning as a strong cold front sweeps across the
lake. Winds will increase to 30 knots by daybreak and a short period
of stronger winds and wind gusts could work its way west to east
across the lake in the early morning hours accompanying the front.

Winds will begin to decrease Sunday afternoon and evening as high
pressure builds toward the lower Great Lakes. The high will slide
across the Ohio Valley the first half of the week with relatively
light winds on the lake, then another deepening storm system will
track toward the western great Lakes on Thursday with strong winds
developing over all of the Great Lakes.


OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ017-020-027>031-
     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ021>023-032-033.
PA...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for PAZ003.


SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Mottice
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