Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271942
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal through the
holiday weekend. Hot and humid conditions will support a chance
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on Sunday. A
upper low will pass by the region Sunday Night with drier
conditions early next week. Temperatures will cool off a few
degrees with a drop in the humidity.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The lack of any cloud depth in this afternoon`s cu field is
indicative of the drier air over the CLE forecast. The mid levels
continue to moisten up due to a H850 surge in moisture, which will
continue overnight and into Saturday. The extent of the upper
level ridging over the area combined with lack of any notable
trigger is helping to suppress any convective development this
evening. The increase in humidity will support temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will once again start off in the mid to upper 60s
on Saturday. With no notable change in the thermal profiles we can
expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Models indicate a
moistening of the mid and lower levels sufficient to support
scattered convection. Diurnal heating will quickly destabilize the
environment and trigger pulse thunderstorms. The wind profiles do
not show enough shear for organized convection so not anticipating
severe storms. The scattered nature of the thunderstorms will mean
a number of areas will receive little to no rain, while areas that
are impacted could see moderate to briefly heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early in this period the models are in good agreement with weak
ridging aloft over region with fair weather expected. Forecast
confidence decreases toward the end of the week as the gfs builds a
blocking ridge along the east coast and develops a slowly digging
trough over the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile the ECMWF has a
different solution with a more progressive active northern jet
stream along the northern tier of states that moves a cold front
across the region towards the end of the week. will use the blended
guidance with minor adjusts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR weather is expected through saturday afternoon with high
pressure lingering to the east. Very light fog may develop near
cak from 09-11z which could drop VSBY to 5sm. otherwise no
restriction to VSBY is expected. Stable conditions persist so
only expect an isolated shower or thunderstorm with peak diurnal
heating.

Outlook...isolated to scattered Non-VFR possible in afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. brief MVFR possible in early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday from MFD to CAK and YNG.
&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will prevail on lake erie as the region
remains on the western edge of high pressure centered off the mid
atlantic coast. Weak southerly winds less than 10 knots can be
expect though the weekend except during the saturday afternoon
when a weak lake breeze may develop. A weak cold front will
approach and cross the lake sunday night and monday with veering
winds to westerly monday with generally 5-15 knots speeds. Weak
high pressure will build over the lake tuesday and east of the
lake wednesday. Winds will continue to veer to north and then
easterly on wednesday. No small craft advisories are expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...LaPlante
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...LaPlante



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