Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 252345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
745 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes today will weaken
and shift east Tuesday. This will allow low pressure to track
across the Northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area
Wednesday evening.


Made a few minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures and sky
cover forecast based on current trends this evening but no changes
of any significance.

The strong upper ridge remains anchored over the area, squeezed
between Maria off the coast and the approaching short wave over
the northern plains. Dewpoints have come up a degree or two and
there will be scattered cumulus again Tuesday afternoon. The
majority of the cirrus should shift east on Tuesday.

Well above normal temps continue with lows from the upper 50s
into the mid 60s and highs again around 90 except slightly
cooler within a mile or so of Lake Erie where there will be a
lake breeze again on Tuesday.


Change in the weather pattern is on the way.  Upper level ridge
finally weakens allowing surface cold front to move into the Central
Great Lakes by daybreak Wednesday.

For the third day in a row have removed precip from northwest Ohio
for Wednesday.  The models have been consistently showing the precip
threat with the front is primarily over the east end of the area.
Since our neighbors to the west and north have dry forecasts I think
it is reasonable to go dry especially given the models.  Even in the
east see no need for anything more than a 20 pop given how dry the
atmosphere is.  The front should be southeast of the area by 18z.
Still think the forecast guidance is too cool for highs as it will
likely be 80 by 9am like it has been the past several days.  Will
continue with a high forecast similar to the previous few days. Cold
air advection will continue through the end of the short term
period.  Another cold front will cross the area on Friday.  Temps
will get chilly behind this front with 850 mb temps dipping to
around plus 4 by 00z Saturday.  At the same time 500 mb temps will
get colder than 20 below which means the lake to 500 mb temp
difference will be about 40 degrees.  So...not only will showers be
likely downwind of the lake on Friday...a few rumbles of thunder
could also occur. Will go with 50 pops for now but suspect we will
eventually need likely or higher wording.  Have trended high temps
down for Thursday and Friday and they still may be too warm.


Next cold front along with a sharp shortwave will cross the local
area Friday evening, the timing of which is better aligned between
the GFS/ECMWF. Have carried precip chances across north-
central/north-east OH/NW PA into Friday evening/night.  With as
sharp as the trough is lake effect looks to be confined to Friday
night. High pressure and subsidence overspreads the area effectively
on Saturday and brings breaks to the mostly cloudy skies. That high
and the ridge aloft will shift east between Sunday and Monday.
Overnight lows will be at their lowest Saturday night especially if
we clear out with light winds. Will bring a number of locations
close to 40. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term with
slowly moderating temperatures into early next week.


.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Light winds and VFR conditions will continue. Dewpoints have
come up enough with light fog/mist possible in a few spots
Tuesday morning and included fog in the forecast at KTOL and
KFDY. A lake breeze wind shift will develop along the lakeshore
Tuesday afternoon affecting KCLE and KERI. Fair weather VFR
cumulus will develop in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Wednesday afternoon and again on
Friday in sct shra with a small chance of tsra.


High pressure will linger over the region for one more day before a
cold front crosses the lake on Wednesday.  Winds will remain
variable at under 10 knots till the front arrives.  Winds will
become northerly behind the front but it now appears we will remain
below small craft criteria.  Northerly winds will continue on
Thursday and then will briefly become southwest ahead of an
approaching cold front Thursday night.  Winds will become northwest
behind the front on Friday.  This time winds and waves may get large
enough for small craft consideration.  Numerous showers and expected
Friday into the start of the weekend with some thunder and even
spout possible given the cold airmass.  Winds will take on an
easterly component on Saturday which will dry things out.


Upcoming records for today and Tuesday 25TH/26TH:

TOL 91/1891 92/1998

CAK 92/1908 89/1900

MFD 88/2007 87/1998

CLE 88/2007 91/1998

ERI 89/1933 89/1998

YNG 91/2007 89/1934




LONG TERM...Kubina
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