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000
FXUS61 KCTP 250546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA LATE FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM
OVER THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET AND COOL
WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA FOR PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING SATL LOOP SHOWING A BIT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVR RIDGE INTO
WESTERN PA...WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE EAST.

WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD THICKENING MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING A BAND OF -SHRA ALONG 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE OVR OHIO...WHICH
SHOULD LIFT EAST ACROSS PA LATER TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF
SPRINKLE IN SPOTS...BUT DRY AIR BLW 3KFT SHOULD LIMIT THE CHC OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE TO
LIMIT RAD COOLING AND POTENTIAL OF FROST ACROSS THE RIDGE/VALLEY
REGION...WHERE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS TOMORROW.
ATTM...AM BETTING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FROST...SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION
PATCHY FROST OVR THE MID SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE BEST CHC OF TEMPS REACHING THE L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ANOMALOUS PWATS/SOUTHERLY LL JET OVERRUNNING
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHRA TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN
AND EVENING. HAVE RAMPED POPS UPWARD TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE W
MTNS AND S TIER COUNTIES BASED ON 18Z GEFS AND OPER MDL RUNS.

CURRENT TIMING SHOWS RAIN OVERSPREADING MY WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN
AROUND NOON...WITH THE RAIN GENERALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS QPF IS IN THE .25" - .50" RANGE FROM THE
SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES ERODE THE ELEVATED STABILITY A
BIT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR
DAMMING SETUP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. I AM LEAVING OUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A
RUMBLE OR TWO IS HEARD BEFORE THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LEFT FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO WHAT WAS IN THE GRIDS. SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
HIGHEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NW.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. ON A COOL SIDE...AS
SYSTEM TAPS SOME REAL COLD AIR TO THE NORTH.

FOR MONDAY...MID SHIFT HAS A FEW SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SW
LATE. LEFT THESE IN...BUT DID ADJUST THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE HIGHER POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA
IS IN A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN.

HOWEVER...OUR DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER ON
MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW
A PLUME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BE THAT HIGH EARLY
ON...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO THU. HEAVIEST QPF MAY BE LATER ON WED. DID
UP POPS A LITTLE.

WITH SE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDS TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. THERE
STILL COULD BE LINGERING MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WEST AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS BY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROSS