Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 251203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
803 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A pleasant day is in store for the region as drier air and a
good deal of sunshine makes for a comfortable afternoon.
Isolated afternoon and evening showers are possible again over
mainly central and north central sections as another upper air
disturbance tracks overhead, but most of the day will be dry.
The drier air stick around through much of the coming week.
Widely scattered showers may still pop up each afternoon across
the northern part of the state.


BKN cigs associated with earlier shower activity are slowly
exiting Sullivan County into KBGM forecast area. The remainder
of central PA is clear to partly cloudy early this morning.

Today will be almost a carbon copy of Saturday across central
PA...with yet another upper air disturbance tracking overhead
during max daytime heating to touch off isolated showers and
thunderstorms across mainly central and northern PA. Areal
coverage should be wider than Saturday afternoon, with perhaps
south central and southeastern areas seeing isolated coverage at
peak heating.

Humidity will be comfortably low. Sfc winds will gust into the
teens by late morning and afternoon. Highs will be several
degrees cooler than Saturday throughout... ranging from the
upper 60s northwest to around 80F southeast.


Isold to sct evening convection bubbles back down shortly past
sunset...leading to another comfortably cool overnight. Mins
will range from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s southeast.

Clouds will increase towards morning over Lake Erie as another
upper wave tracks across the region. POPs will increase late
over the northwest mountains as a result...but think it will
remain dry through Monday morning.

POPs increase along and north of I80 on Monday as the
aforementioned wave tracks along or just north of the PA/NY
border. Southern half of central PA will remain mainly dry on
Monday. Humidity will remain comfortable.


Seasonably strong large scale upper trough will settle over the
Eastern U.S. A couple of shortwave impulses reflecting weak
surface fronts or troughs will provide a limited/mainly diurnal
opportunity for widely scattered showers/isolated low- topped
thunderstorms again on Tuesday, especially across northern
portions of CWA. However, much of the this period will be
pleasant and dry with below normal PW supporting low humidity
and below normal temperatures relative to late June climatology.

The trough is fcst to lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by
the middle of the week, followed by a resurgence of the
Southeast U.S. upper ridge. Models and ensembles show the ridge
breaking down in the west as a trough shifts east across the
Rockies into the Plains. Southerly flow increasing ahead of its
attendant frontal system should result in an upward/warmer trend
in temperatures accompanied by low level moisture/humidity
midweek. Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels with
noticeably increasing humidity by next Friday/Saturday along
with an increase in convective activity.


VFR will continue across all of Central Pennsylvania through at
least the late morning hours with just some areas of fairly
shallow high based strato cu and low-end alto cu drifting east.

Broad large scale lift associated with the right entrance
region of a 110 kt upper level swrly jet will combine with an
approaching weak sfc trough to spark isolated-scattered showers
across the northern mtns of PA this afternoon (perhaps as early
as 15Z invof KBFD). HRRR and latest NAM confirms this evolution
pretty nicely with a splattering of echoes across the northern
third to half of PA this afternoon.

Similar to Saturday, westerly winds will pick up during the
mid/late morning in all locations as vertical mixing rapidly
climbs to 6-7 kft agl, tapping wind of 20-25 kts at that level.

Mon...Mainly VFR, but scattered/numerous SHRA/TSRA north.
Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north.
Thu...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA north.


KCCX radar will be offline for the next 2 to 3 days for
technicians to install the first of 4 major service- life
extension upgrades. The work on the radar has been scheduled to
minimize potential impacts to operations.




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