Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 250321
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1121 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A STRING OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELP SLACKEN THE
WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER CLEAR-SCATTERED SKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF KIPT...TO
THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
/AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY
LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT.

TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER
60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN
THE AFTN.

THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE
DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL
THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW
OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL
PENN LOCATIONS.

NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT
DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS
U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER
THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND
TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND
U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN
SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES
BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF
THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND
TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES
NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER
SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH
AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH
AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST PA FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH 05Z
AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND
NORTH OF KIPT.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT



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