Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290542
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
142 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS EARLY TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

WITH THE NEARLY PRIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...EXPECT SINGLE
DIGITS FOR LOWS OVER THE NORTH. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
WE`LL SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR ZERO IN THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...ALTHOUGH NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN
TODAY...WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAKDOWN THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. THE 850 0C LINE WILL BISECT THE
STATE BUT EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF THE APRIL
SUN ANGLE.

BY MIDWEEK...WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
HOWEVER THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN
DROPS SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US
BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT LESS WIND AND SNOW TODAY. OVERALL...A SUNNY DAY WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG/MIST THAT
SHOULD FORM DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

WINDS CURRENTLY ARE REMAINING STRONG WITH GUSTS AT AOO AND
MDT...THOUGH THESE WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
 THE MOST AT RISK FROM THIS WILL BE BFD...WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATO CU BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z. THOUGH THIS IS STILL
RELATIVELY A LOW PROBABILITY SO HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS MVFR THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER A MORE TRANQUIL AND NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY
SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND
PRECEDING...FEW- HOUR SHOT OF MDTLY STG WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMS OF A COATING TO 1 INCH WILL BE FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
NWRN PENN COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES BY 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.

WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUR AFTERNOON NIGHT...A GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU/MARTIN


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