Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 041006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
606 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY TODAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING THE LAST OF THE SHRA/TSRA EXITING
LANCASTER CO AT 0945Z...AS MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING PASSES EAST OF PA. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT IS
STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS THE NW MTNS AT 09Z AND NEAR TERM MDLS
SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AM TO CLEAR LANCASTER CO.
HOWEVER...EXPECT A DRY MORNING...GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG/LOW CIGS EARLY THIS AM
ACROSS THE NW MTNS SHOULD MIX OUT ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CHILLY MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR
AMT OF CU/STRATOCU AS WELL AS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE N
MTNS THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH...A SHOT OF ANOMALOUSLY DRY
AIR...SEEN IN LOOP OF SATL-DERIVED PWATS OVR THE MIDWEST...WILL
SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN PA TODAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MSUNNY AND DRY
WX OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.

MDL 8H TEMPS RANGING FROM 13C-16C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTN FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE U80S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED AFTN WGUSTS TO 15-20KTS BASED ON
AMT OF MIXING EXPECTED AND MDL 850 WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE N MTNS WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL
SHRA LATE TONIGHT W/PASSAGE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF
UPPER TROF OVR THE E GRT LKS.

SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON
WED...SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH MSUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. RADAR TRENDS
ARE STILL FAVORING THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND RISK OF TSTM IMPACTS. THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA SUGGESTS
STORMS DO NOT EXIT THE ERN AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR UNTIL 08-10Z.
WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED SINCE
00Z...SUSTAINED TERMINAL IMPACTS/SUB-VFR SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THE
STORMS ARE PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD.

THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVN CONCERN IS IFR FOG OR LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CLEAR. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR
THE WRN TAFS GIVEN COMBO OF WLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND NARROWING DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THE 06Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CAN FURTHER ADDRESS THIS IF NEEDED.

FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL


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