Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 290742
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS OF NORTHEASTERN PENN EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A VERY PLEASANT AUGUST NIGHT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST OTHER PLACES WILL LIKELY
BE LOWERED BY ANOTHER FEW DEG F EARLY TODAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NEARLY CALM AIR IN MANY LOCATIONS.

LOW TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE CHILLY MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH
EARLY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE PATCHY EARLY FOG QUICKLY BURNS OFF...TODAY WILL KEEP
THE RECENT STRING OF MAINLY FAIR DAYS IN TACT...WHILE WARMING UP
BY 4 OR 5 DEG ON AVERAGE. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS OF THE
STATE...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHC OF SEEING
RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS.

AFTER THAT...THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE 12Z GEFS
SHOWS 850HPA TEMPS RUNNING +1SD ACROSS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ABOVE-NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS
WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO PA. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT THURS/FRI. THIS
FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. BFD BRIEFLY
WENT BELOW IFR...AS HAS UNV...AND CONSIDERING THE CLEAR SKIES AND
OVERNIGHT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE PATCHY FOG IS LESS DENSE THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
SO IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDEER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A
CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.