Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241827
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
227 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain north of the region through Saturday
before sagging south ward across central Pennsylvania Saturday
night and Sunday. Very mild conditions are expected tonight and
Sunday as we enjoy the warm sector south of the frontal
boundary. However...increasing clouds and southeast flow are
expected on Sunday as the boundary sags southward as a backdoor
cold front...bringing cooler conditions and eventually some
patchy drizzle or light rain. Unsettled conditions will last
from late Sunday through Tuesday as a series of disturbances
interact with the front. No heavy rain is expected during this
timeframe however.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Much milder air flooding into western and central PA at mid
afternoon as warm front jumps northward of the NY/PA border. A
very rapid warm up ensued at midday with afternoon temps
eventually ending up some 20 to 30 degrees higher than this
morning. The aforementioned warm front remains north of the
region tonight...bringing a mainly fair and mild Friday night.
Lows into Saturday should range from the upper 40s to low 50s.
There will be areas of low clouds and drizzle in the vicinity of
the NY border adjacent to the stalling sfc boundary. Areas
farther south stand to see the least cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Saturday will be the best of the weekend days as the quasi
stationary front remains north of or along the PA/NY border.
Very mild temperatures are expected again with maxes ranging
from the mid 50s north where more in the way of clouds and
patchy drizzle or light showers are expected...to the upper 60s
south where a good deal of sunshine is expected. There could be
some isolated to scattered afternoon showers in the increasingly
warm and unstable air central and south...but most will stay
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cooler moist boundary should move into the region Sunday out
ahead of the approaching low. Have adjusted POPs for timing and
intensity. QPF remains variable but possible wet period Sunday
into Monday.

Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with
the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching
70F over southern PA. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind
a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above
average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely
through early next week, as 12Z GEFS indicates Pa remains
beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous PWATs.
The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR south and MVFR north as warm front lifts into southern NY
state. This will be the trend overnight as generally VFR
conditions are seen south and MVFR to lcl IFR posbl north in low
clouds and drizzle near stationary frontal boundary over
southern NY.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace.

Sun-Tue...Sub-VFR with periods of rain.

Wed...MFFR to VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
AVIATION...DeVoir/Steinbugl


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