532
FXUS61 KCTP 140150
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
950 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid
* Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through Monday, with the most widespread activity,
  featuring locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening.
* At this point, Tuesday looks like the driest day of the next
  seven

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Several clusters of highly efficient TSRA were drifting slowly
east across the CWA this evening with rainfall rates topping 3
inches/hour for short intervals. The primary areas of concern
for the next several hours (with the Flood Watch running through
05Z Monday) will be across our NW Mtns (SE Warren County
specifically) where a weak quasi-stnry sfc boundary was topped
by the southern edge of an area of enhanced upper level
divergence (and broadly diffluent flow) with the approach of
the right entrance region of a 70-80 kt 300 mb jet.

Another area of concern is across Scent PA where new convection
on the western edge of a TSRA cluster is beginning to lift
slowly north and back over areas that received 1-2+ inches of
rain over the past few hours. SFC Based CAPE still exceeds 2000
J/KG in this area.

A 3rd and 4th area that bears watching over the next 3-4 hours
is across the Laurel Highlands and over the Mtns North and East
of KIPT.

Elsewhere, stabilization of the boundary layer and diminishing
topographic effects will greatly reduce the coverage and
strength of any lingering convection across much of the Central
and Western Mtns, though decoupling of the BLYR and an
enhancement of the LLJ could bring a few more elevated, brief
heavy rain producers overnight,

Fog is possible, esp where the rain falls this aftn/evening.
But, two areas of lower clouds are expected, one over the NW
with a lowering inversion there, and marine air trying to get
back in like it has both of the last two nights. But, the SErly
flow may not be as strong as the past two nights. We will still
paint some higher cloud cover in the east, but not bring it too
far into the CWA.

Low temps tonight will be fairly similar to last night with
mid-upr 60s across the Northern and Western Mtns and low to mid
70s in the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Short MBE vectors and relatively light flow (still only 20KT
deep shear over MDT) continue on Monday, as the last many days,
and will keep the FF risk higher than normal. Current ERO is a
SLGT for our SErn third, but tapers to nil for the NW few
counties. The moisture and approach of a stronger longer-wave
trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening on
Monday, mainly over the eastern half of the area. Will ponder
another FF Watch for Mon aftn/evening. PHI has posted a FF
Watch for their area already for Monday and should make our
decision bit easier. We`ll still hold off until mid shift or
Mon AM to make that (Mon) watch decision in order to be able to
see where the heaviest stuff falls this evening and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday
evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no
precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning
hours on Tuesday. This will be short-lived, however, as the
front will move back in to the southern tier Tuesday afternoon
and trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Large-scale pattern remains fairly consistent, allowing for
continued chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across central Pennsylvania throughout much of the long-term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered, slow moving SHRA/TSRA will continue through about
05Z across the Susq Valley and points just to the east and also
across the Northern Mtns (Both areas being in the vicinity of
low level moisture convergence along weak sfc troughs). A small
cluster of TSRA lifting NE twd the Laurel Highlands of SW PA may
impact the KJST area between 0330Z and 05Z Monday.

Overnight, patchy fog is likely where it rained earlier, and
there is a 50% chc that the marine stratus gets back into the
far eastern terminals (LNS, MDT as well as MUI) through the
night. Have brought most everyone into MVFR overnight and IFR
for BFD, UNV, IPT, MDT and LNS.

Still a 90% chc for a break in the convection between 08Z and
14Z. But the approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is
a good signal that storms will form again Monday. Will just
mention after 16Z. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-
AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are
possible to the NW of that area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south.

Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Monday for PAZ006-011-012-017>019-
024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo