Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 300045
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RADAR LOOP AT 0030Z SHOWS SCT SHRA...AND A FEW TSRA...WORKING
INTO THE NW MTNS. WITH LACK OF LG SCALE FORCING...THIS
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY DIE AFTER W/LOSS OF
HEATING BTWN 00Z-03Z. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST
THRU ARND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE REST OF NIGHT SHOULD BE RAINFREE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA. HIGH DWPTS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE M60S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BOIL UP. STILL THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUS MECHANISM SO TIMING WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS ISOLD SVR WX GIVEN
THE MODERATE CAPES PROGGED BY AFTN. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS ALOFT
AND ASSOC DEEP LYR SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE THE RISK OF ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS COLD FRONT STALLS AND A WAVE IS
PROGGED TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
PERSISTENT FORCING AND RICH MOISTURE FEED WITH PW IN THE 1.33" TO
1.8" RANGE BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PA
THAT WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME...AND CERTAINLY THIS SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT STATEMENT GIVEN THAT WE`RE STARTING OUT
MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL TO BEGIN.

TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON COOLING
THINGS DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WITH EVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DRYING POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S. TOO
EARLY TO GET HUNG UP ON THE DETAILS AS THEY WILL CHANGE...BUT AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A COUPLE DAYS OF CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY
WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND
FREQUENT SHOWERS AND CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A SLOW DRYING TREND BEGINS BY TUESDAY AS RICH PW PLUME SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SEVERAL DAYS OF COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOWER POPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SO FAR. CONVECTION STARTING TO WEAKEN...AS EXPECTED.

00Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WESTERN TERMINALS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU WILL BE AROUND TONIGHT IN
THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE
DEVELOPING AT MOST TERMINALS. THIS HAZE WILL TEND TO THIN OUT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAINLY VFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-TUE...LOCALLY MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS/DEVOIR
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN


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