Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 291111
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
711 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will influence the region through early
next week...bringing daily chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Most of the time will be dry in any one location
however. high pressure will build over the northeastern united
states by mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some fog outside for another hour or so.

Area of moderate to heavy rain now east of the area.

Grids updated.

There could be a few showers or storms later today, but bulk
of the day should be dry. Temperatures near normal.

Earlier discussion below.

Behind this feature, a lull will be seen through late
morning...after which diurnal heating should support isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through late afternoon and
early evening, as per CAMs and SSEO/GEFS. GEFS mean 850mb temps of
arnd 16C should translate to max temps ranging through the
80s...near to slightly above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Evening diurnally driven shower activity will dissipate by
midnight...but approaching slow moving upper trof from the Ohio
Valley may support some overnight shower activity reaching into
the Alleghenies and into the central and south central mountains
by 12z Sat. This upper trof will slowly work across PA on
Saturday bringing scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
to especially central and southern areas. Cheseapeake deep layer
moisture plume sneaks into my southeast counties in the afternoon
and could support locally heavy downpours as the mean trof remains
over the Ohio Valley but individual disturbances lift newd over
PA. With plenty of clouds and scattered showers on
Saturday...highs will range from the mid 70s north to the lower to
mid 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow Saturday night and Sunday
keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances over the
eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday night with
ridging building in across Central PA helping clear things
out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in the
80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the GFS
tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower or
thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Will be adjusting the tafs for any remaining fog before
sending out 12Z TAFS.

Earlier discussion below.

Bands of rain will be east of the area shortly.

Main issue for a few more hours will be some fog and low
CIGS.

As the system edges further east, VFR conditions should prevail
later today.

This afternoon should feature better conditions than the
weekend, as additional systems move across the area.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-MON...Additional showers and thunderstorms.

TUE...Improving conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Martin
SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Martin



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