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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261731 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LAST BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXITING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FA
ATTM. ELSEWHERE...VERY FEW CLOUDS AS RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE FA.
HAVE REALIGNED THE POPS/QPF/THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS
SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE PRE-FIRST PERIOD SECTION. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE IN THE ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. THERE
IS SOME AREAS OF FOG IN POTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THAT
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN PRECIP
CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARROWHEAD MOVING EAST. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THE AREA. THERE IS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WITH MU CAPES 500-1000 AND SOME SHEAR. THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF MN BY 12Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION TODAY GIVING THE
AREA PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR THE ND/NW MN BORDER BY TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE AREAS THAT MAY
RECEIVE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO END WEST TO EAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE MINOR SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT A LARGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND LINGER OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND
DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY...BUT THERE WILL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL...NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEAK COLD FRONT. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LEAD TO THESE LOW CHANCES FOR TS. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW AND PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. LIGHT W/SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
VEER TO THE N/NW BY SUN MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  60  68  53 /  10  60  70  10
INL  82  54  72  50 /  20  50  50   0
BRD  84  60  74  55 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  85  59  70  50 /   0  60  70  10
ASX  83  57  66  50 /   0  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT