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000
FXUS63 KDLH 101959
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
259 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE NW WI FA BY 18Z AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. SOME SPOTS IN THE FORESTS OF NW WI HAD REACHED INTO
THE UPPER 50S...MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE BORDERLAND AND LOW TO MD 50S
ELSEWHERE AT 1830Z. A BIT OF A GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW WIND GUSTS. WAA CIRRUS IS JUST BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE FROM THE W AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING SFC LOW IN NE WY. EXPECT
THE HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME MID CLOUDS...TO COVER THE FA BY
12Z TUESDAY. THE WAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT. BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY...AN AREA OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. 12Z GFS HAS COME
A BIT FURTHER N WITH ITS QPF WHICH TOUCHES THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
THE FA. BELIEVE THIS IS TOO FAR N AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING LOCAL WRF...ALL KEEP THE PCPN WELL S OF THE FA.
HAVE KEPT THE AREA DRY TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND DISSOLVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING THE PCPN WELL S. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN WITH CAA THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA RESULT IN A DRY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH COMBINING TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS WELL. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THOUGH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE TWENTIES.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
WAA WILL BOOST HIGHS THURSDAY TO THE MIDDLE FORTIES OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...AND 35 TO 40 EAST.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE REST OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK TO BE
LIGHT...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE THIRTIES...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TWENTIES...AND A FEW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT AT 12Z SUNDAY
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GEM/GFS AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW FURTHER NORTH AND
WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE WENT CLOSER TO THE
GFS/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...USHERING IN COLDER AIR. WE KEPT MOST TAF SITES VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT DID KEEP SOME SCT MVFR CLOUDS AT ALL SITES.
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MANITOBA. THE
RAP SHOWS THESE CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...AND WE FOLLOWED AND BROUGHT THOSE CEILINGS INTO
KINL...BUT NOT ANY FURTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WE MAY HAVE TO
ADD MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  33  10  23 /  10   0  20  10
INL  20  27   0  23 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  27  35  10  26 /  10   0  10   0
HYR  27  38  10  21 /   0   0  20  10
ASX  26  36  10  18 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE