Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 311129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Issued at 315 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

For the early morning hours, showers and thunderstorms will mainly
focus along and ahead of an eastward traveling MCV which developed
near TOP and has now progressed to near LWC. As this feature travels
east, an upper-level boundary/trough axis will also continue to
slide south across the forecast area, allowing isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms to develop and spread southward ahead
of approaching surface high pressure. As a result, 50 to 60 PoPs
will continue through the morning and then gradually trend southward
throughout the day. Cloud cover and increasing northerly winds will
keep temperatures cooler than the last several days; however, low-
level moisture will be slow to erode and conditions may still feel a
bit muggy through early this evening.

Once surface high pressure arrives in the area late this evening
into the overnight hours, moisture will drop and skies will clear,
allowing temperatures to fall into the low 60s to even upper 50s
across northern MO. Below normal temperatures will continue Thursday
through Friday as high pressure broadens and slowly sinks east-
southeast; then, upper-level flow will transition to the southwest
while return flow develops on the west side of the surface high.
High temperatures will climb into the mid 80s on Sunday and the
upper 80s to near 90 by Labor Day, and while a few very isolated
nocturnal storms are possible as early as Sunday night, better
precipitation chances will hold off until midweek when another
trough makes its way through the central CONUS.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Showers and embedded storms will focus mainly south of the terminals
today, and while a few isolated showers are possible through the
remainder of the morning hours, coverage should be limited enough for
VCSH instead of prevailing showers. Ceilings will be tricky this
morning with a layer of very transient 400-800 ft stratus lingering
around the KC area, causing ceilings to jump rapidly from VFR to IFR
or LIFR and back over the next several hours. Eventually, stratus
bases should raise to between 3-4 kft, and then should scatter out
by late afternoon or early evening.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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