Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 061705
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1105 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Have raised max temperatures in southern and eastern sections of the
CWA based upon inspection of 12z model soundings and faster warm-up
due to improved sun angle, favorable boundary layer mixing of
relatively dry airmass. Also lowered dew-points over far northwest MO
which slightly increases the fire danger threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Meteorological Spring arrived March 1st, and the warm weather
expected over the next week will reinforce the desire for Spring that
has likely sprouted in you.

The last vestiges of the cool surface high, that kept the region
cold Wednesday and Thursday, is sliding off to the east early this
morning under the influence of a northwest flow that will prevail
across our section of the country for much of the next week.
Normally a northwest flow might induce near to below normal
temperatures for its duration, but this particular set up will usher
in warmer weather. Helping temperatures for the next week is the
eastern Pacific Ridge. This ridge will get beet down and eventually
spread east, but the active northern stream will allow the warmer
air under the ridge to advect into the Central Plains as it
flattens, thus keeping the cooler air to our north. However, the
active northern stream will allow an occasional trough to move
through which will prevent temperatures from jumping too high over
the weekend. Expect 40s and 50s Friday, with 50s to around 60 for
Saturday, but expect temperatures to flatten and or retreat a degree
or two for Sunday as a trough sends a weak dry cold front through the
region for Sunday and Monday.

Otherwise, after the Sunday-Monday pause in the warming trend due to
the dry cold front, we will return to the warm air advection of
Saturday. This will lift prevailing readings across eastern Kansas
and Missouri into the 60s for Tuesday, and while we have not
inserted 70s into the forecast yet, there is the potential out there
for temperatures in that range over the later half of the next work
week. Currently, moisture return to the central Plains looks
limited, so in addition to the warmer temperatures we are also
expecting dry conditions through the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period with SW winds around
15 kts, gusting to 20 kts at times through Friday afternoon. Will
keep an eye on the potential for LLWS tonight, particularly between
08Z- 10Z. However, low-level jet is not as impressive as previous
night, and surface winds around 10 kts should mitigate this
potential. Weak cold front will push through just after the TAF
period, but will remain dry behind the boundary.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Welsh





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