Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 262237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL GENERATE A PUSH OF MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SAT AND SUN FOR A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FRONT JUST OUTSIDE 135W
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE NORCAL COAST. IT IS RUNNING INTO A LONG-WAVE RIDGE AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MODELS DO SHOW THIS DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH NW CAL BY
FRI EVENING...SO IT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MISTY RAIN
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A TENTH IN DEL NORTE COUNTY TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ELSEWHERE.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE 500MB SHORT-WAVE SHEARING
APART AND SPLITTING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS N-NW
FLOW INCREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. STRONGER NORTH
FLOW ON SAT SHOULD PRODUCE DEEPER MIXING AND BETTER CHANCES OF
CLEARING AT THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOLID MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. ALSO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER FOR SAT WITH EACH RUN.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL REBUILD ON SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHT WARMING IN THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT-WAVE BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
NIGHT SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DRY FORECAST FOR TUE
THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS CLEARED OUT ANY STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST REMAINED INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WEB CAMERAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE ARE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOWEVER, THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE COAST. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SO
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
FALL TO IFR AND LIFR LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. KML

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A WESTERLY
MID PERIOD WAVE AND A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND STEEPENING SEAS. WINDS WILL EASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, THE SEA STATE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 FT AS A
WESTERLY WAVE SYSTEM PROPAGATES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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