Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 231110
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HWY 36 BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ROLLING ACROSS THE COAST NORTH
OF THE CAPE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME VERY TIGHT SMALL CELLS
SHOWING 40-50 DBZ`S BUT QUICKLY WEAKENING. BY 2AM SHOWERS DIMINISHED BOTH
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AT THIS TIME ONLY A FEW CELLS WITH VERY
WEAK RETURNS ARE PRESENT. PER THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY...TEMPS
ARE STRUGGLING TO GET DOWN BELOW 35 AND ARE MAINLY HOVERING
AROUND 37. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO FILTER INTO
MENDOCINO COUNTY PROHIBITING SIGNIFICANT COOLING FROM OCCURRING.
NONETHELESS WITH A FEW HOURS TO GO DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO OUTRIGHT CANCEL THE ADVISORY. A DRY START TO THE DAY IS ON TAP
FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE SOME WARM SECTOR PRECIP DEVELOPS MAINLY OVER
DEL NORTE COUNTY LATE MORNING. THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS DEL NORTH AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. BY LATE AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS
GARBERVILLE BUT ANY AMOUNTS THAT FAR SOUTH WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE
OVERHEARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3500 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON AMOUNTS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY COLD...AROUND -31C AT 500
MB. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH LI`S NEAR 0 OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AND CAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT GETS
CLOSER. FOR THE WEEKEND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT SUCCESSIVE RUNS ARE DIMINISHING QPF VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN TO AREAS FROM CAPE MENDOCINO NORTH TODAY. CIGS WILL
FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT REINFORCING THE RAIN
OVER AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DETERIORATE TO THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RPA


&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY A WESTERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS RESULTING IN SOME
CHOPPY HAZARDOUS SEAS. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EXTENDED IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.

ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. A MORE UNCERTAIN SOUTHERLY SWELL IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
MODELS ORIGINATING FROM A STORM SYSTEM IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PACIFIC.
WITH A LACK OF BUOY DATA TO VERIFY THE SWELL...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SWELL MAGNITUDE TO 2 FEET CONSIDERING
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE OFTEN OVERDONE IN THE MODELS. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BE KNOWN ONCE THE SWELL ARRIVES AT BUOYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RPA


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THURSDAY PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ475.

&&

$$

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