Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 310855
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...CONFIRMING THE AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SPREAD WEST FROM EAST TX INTO MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX EARLY TODAY. GOES SOUNDER DPI IMAGERY AT 07Z SUGGESTS
THAT 2 INCH PWAT VALUES HAVE REACHED I-35 NEAR AUS ALTHOUGH THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE. HI-RES MODEL TRENDS LOOK TO
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF WEAK STABILITY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS FORMING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE COASTAL PRAIRIES AND CENTRAL TX IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TRENDS
HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SOUTHWARD TO WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS HIGHEST AND THE RIDGE INFLUENCE IS WEAKER.
EXPECT THE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TO BE GOOD FOR
ABOUT A 2-3 DEGREE DROP IN MAX TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT...BUT
WILL SHADE TOWARD PERSISTENCE ON MINS.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS TREND DRIER. MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO DISPERSE...AND THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE
NW GULF THAT COULD FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. THUS HAVE
CAPPED POPS AT 20 PERCENT AND RETURNED TEMPERATURES TO THE TRENDS
FROM THE PAST WEEK.

WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH TODAY AND
ADD SATURDAY...GIVEN NAM DCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1500 J/KG.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH POP CHANCES CROPPED
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ONLY A SLIVER OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE MEDIUM RANGE TRENDS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING BACK EAST TO RECLAIM STABILITY OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA THROUGH MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD OFF
REACHING 100 AT SAT THURSDAY BUT MADE FOR THE FIRST TIME OF THE
SEASON AT AUS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF
THE SEASON COMES SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN BE A CONCERN BY MID-WEEK WHEN
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  77 100  76 101 /  30  20  10   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  74  99  72 100 /  30  20  10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  75 100  73 100 /  30  20  20   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  74  98  74  99 /  30  20  20  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  78 100  77 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  74  99  74  99 /  30  20  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  75 100  73 100 /  30  20  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  99  73 101 /  30  20  20   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  74 100  74 100 /  30  20  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  99  76 100 /  30  20  20  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75 101 /  30  20  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS



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