Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 032342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH
REMNANT CIRRUS...FROM DECAYING STORMS TO THE FAR NORTH AND FAR
WEST...MAY STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING. NE TO E WIND 7-12 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT SAT/AUS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS AND TURNING NW OVERNIGHT. THEN
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE NW AFTER 15Z. SE WIND 5-10 KTS
AT DRT TURNING E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE PREVAILING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. IT IS BASICALLY A
PICTURE PERFECT DAY FOR MAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR NORTH.WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ENDED BY THE TIME THE
MAIN LIFT ARRIVES AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS
FEATURE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BY THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
ANOTHER ON THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW
DAYS LEAVING THE MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARING WEST
TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ON SUNDAY...A
REPEAT SCENARIO IS EXPECTED BUT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE A BIT
FARTHER EAST AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AS
THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850
AND 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO PUSH TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND STORM CHANCES WILL THEN ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL OF COURSE BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY DRYLINE
STORMS...BUT IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DELVE INTO SPECIFICS GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS AND ANY DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              54  83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  82  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  81  55  83  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  86  58  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        52  81  55  83  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  54  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  81  55  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  83  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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