Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 041130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME. WILL PREVAIL MVFR CEILINGS AND MENTION A TEMPO FOR
IFR THROUGH 15Z FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 16-17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SSE AROUND
10 KNOTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS PROBABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17


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