Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 290907 CCA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
407 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...Corrected typo bottom of first paragraph...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
The subtropical ridge will continue to strengthen over South Central
TX with only a few showers and storms forecast over some of the
Coastal Prairie counties the next couple days. Primary weather
concerns are for heat indices as we see an increase in outdoor
activities going into Independence Day. A weakness in the mid to
upper level ridge looms to the SE over the coast and further enhances
the subsidence effect of the ridge from a sharpened anticyclonic mid
level wind flow over Central TX. Another subtle troughing feature
over the Central Plains is expected to drop a weak frontal zone Swd
tonight and likely develop a thunderstorm complex over the Red River
on Friday. This feature of unsettled weather is expected to enhance
southerly winds and raise dew points into the low/middle 70s the next
couple mornings over South Central TX. Mid 70s dew points are already
noted over parts of the Coastal Prairies. Blended guidance data
suggests an isolated location or two to reach the low end side of
Heat Advisory criteria, with increasing winds for Friday have a
better chance of making the product necessary for a significant
portion of the forecast area. Areas along the Rio Grande look to
be on the cusp of elevated fire weather conditions with RH values
in the upper 20s with the winds picking up for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Saturday`s surface pressure gradient is suggested by raw data to
relax slightly, but guidance data continues to run some breezy
conditions into Saturday afternoon. Heat indices Saturday are
expected to ease off a degree or two from those of Friday, but the
increase of outdoor activity as we approach the holidays could result
in more heat stress cases over the area. The high pressure ridge is
forecast to amplify slightly to the west with broad coverage still
over Texas. This subtle shift could lower winds and humidities
slightly by Independence day, but heat indices are still expected to
reach near triple digits through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  78  95  77  96 /   0   0  10  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  77  95  76  96 /   0  -   10  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  96  76  95 /   0   0  10  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            93  76  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  78 101  79  98 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  77  95  77  95 /   0   0  -    0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             98  77  97  77  96 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  77  95  76  95 /   0   0  10  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  79  94  78  96 /  20  -   20  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  79  96  79  95 /   0   0  -    0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           96  78  96  78  96 /   0   0  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks



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