Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 230715
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Short wave moving across KY/TN depicted well on water vapor and the
models have picked up on this. With the H5 ridge building across the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into North Carolina...this wave will move
south and then southwest moving into AL/MS by this evening. With the
short wave moving across the CWA today...scattered convection will
develop...mainly across north Georgia and have increased pops to 40
with 30 pops across central Georgia. Convection will diminish after
sunset. The wave moves to the west of the CWA Sunday with the H5
ridge building over the CWA. This should diminish the amount of
convection Sunday...however plenty of moisture remains under the
ridge and daytime heating should produce scattered convection again
with the greatest risk across the mountains.

Heat Index values will increase to 100 to 104 with spotty 105. Will
not issue an advisory at this point. This will need to be monitored.

17

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The long term starts off with an upper level ridge across the southern
Appalachians and an easterly wave moving across FL. The GFS has this
wave affecting central GA more than the NAM or European models.
At this time think convection will be highly diurnal Sunday evening.

The upper level ridge pattern continues for Monday with mainly
afternoon showers and storms. Most high temperatures will again
be in the 90s except upper 80s for portions of the mountains.

The upper ridge moves over the area for Tuesday and Wednesday but
slightly weaker and continues to slightly drift S Thursday into
Friday. This should continue the pattern of mainly Diurnal showers
and storms across the area...favoring the mountains and portions of
W GA. Highs in the 90s will continue for most areas and slightly
cooler in the mountains.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
No major changes to the previous forecast. A short wave will
continue to move across the forecast area today keeping the risk
of tsra across mainly the ATL/AHN areas. CSG/MCN areas have a
risk but it is not great enough to include in the TAF at this
time. Convection will diminish after sunset. Winds will be light
and westerly through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on convection timing and coverage.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  74  96  74 /  30  30  30  20
Atlanta         94  75  95  75 /  30  30  30  20
Blairsville     87  69  89  69 /  40  30  50  20
Cartersville    94  74  94  73 /  40  30  40  20
Columbus        95  75  97  75 /  30  30  30  20
Gainesville     94  73  95  74 /  40  30  40  20
Macon           95  74  96  74 /  30  30  30  20
Rome            95  74  95  73 /  40  30  40  20
Peachtree City  94  73  95  72 /  30  30  30  20
Vidalia         97  75  96  74 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17


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