Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 181135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF
ATL THIS MORNING... BUT THESE CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ATL AT LEAST
TEMPORARY BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING. THEN SCT MID CLOUDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A COOL EASTERLY WEDGE SETTING UP
BY 06-09Z FRI...WITH MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS SPREADING
BACK IN OVER ATL BETWEEN 07-09Z FRI. CLOUDY WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRI EVENING WITH PATCHES OF -RA FRI MORNING... THEN ISOLATED
TO SCT SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON. CURRENT LIGHT NNE WINDS SWING BACK NNW
BY 17-18Z TODAY... THEN BACK NNE BETWEEN 04-06Z FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS
WILL BE 4-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SWINGS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








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