Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 250135
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Have only made some minor hourly temp tweaks to the forecast. High
pressure will continue.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
A welcomed relatively benign and low impact forecast on tap as a
mid/upper ridge of high pressure will dominate into Wednesday. We
should have pleasant mostly clear conditions with only some cirrus
skirting across the region and temp moderating back to well above
normal for Wed highs (which seems like the normal by now). Expect
many areas reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.
The next player in the forecast will be a relatively weak cold front
for Wednesday night into Thursday. Models are in good consensus on
this feature having a rather quick progression across the area with
somewhat limited moisture advection ahead. Given this and the
rather elongated orientation and low amplitude upper longwave
support...the environment looks like it fails to destabilize and
only scattered showers should accompany the fropa. Have generally
high end chance pops for most locations and limited likely to the
far north. Lows Wednesday night stay well above normal in the 40s
to 50s given the precip and associated cloud coverage.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Synoptic pattern on Thursday characterized by amplifying mid level
cyclonic flow across northern US with lead shortwave centered across
Great Lakes region. This will initially keep the CWA on the backside
of mid level ridge in SW flow. Meanwhile at the sfc...low pressure
associated with lead shortwave across Great Lakes will have a cold
front draped to its S/SW that will extend all the way into the
Gulf. This cold front will be in the process of pushing through
the CWA Wednesday night into early Thursday...with showers located
in its vicinity. Although ample jet support and some shortwave
energy will help increase shower activity along the front...lack
of appreciable moisture return will limit QPF amounts and keep
CAA advection behind the front will keep temps much cooler than
we`ve seen the last week or two on Thursday...esp across north
Georgia where the greater chances of lingering post-frontal strato-
cu will accompany cooler airmass. Opted to dry just about everyone
out by Thursday afternoon.
Sfc ridging will gradually work its way into the area...which
will keep us dry Friday. A sfc trough will likely develop on the
back side of the aforementioned frontal system...while in the mid
levels...cyclonic flow will be amplifying. With numerous vort
maxes in the vicinity...enough forcing could be realized to allow
a few flurries to spit out along highest terrain mountain counties
Saturday and particularly Sunday night. Deterministic GFS seems a
little too aggressive so have left out mention in the grids on
Sat night for now...thinking best chance will stay north of Ga
state line. A return to winter-like low temps and chilly afternoon
highs expected Friday-weekend.
Sfc trough will linger across mountain counties through late Sunday
when a reinforcing shot of cooler air pushes into the region as a
strong shortwave dives south toward the TN Valley. Opted to keep
forecast dry for now...but will watch trends for possibility of light
showers perhaps mixed with flurries across north Georgia on
Monday. Rest of the extended remains dry with seasonably cool
VFR conditions expected overnight and much of tomorrow. A weak
frontal boundary will move east across the area late tomorrow,
brining the possibility of bkn/ovc ifr/mvfr cigs. Sct shra are
also possible, but mainly after the TAF period. Winds will remain
on the west side.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 41 69 50 54 / 0 0 40 30
Atlanta 44 68 48 50 / 0 5 50 20
Blairsville 36 63 42 45 / 0 10 60 20
Cartersville 40 68 44 47 / 0 10 50 10
Columbus 43 71 52 57 / 0 5 50 20
Gainesville 43 66 47 51 / 0 5 50 20
Macon 41 71 55 58 / 0 0 50 30
Rome 39 67 43 47 / 0 20 60 10
Peachtree City 40 69 48 52 / 0 5 50 20
Vidalia 44 72 59 64 / 0 0 40 40