Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 091132
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016
.Previous Discussions.../Issued 258 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A cold dome of high pressure will continue to build over the area
through the short term and bring some of the coldest temperatures
felt so far this winter. Most locations will start out this morning
with temperatures at or well below freezing... so bundle up the kids
for the bus stop. Persistent northwest winds today... around 10 to
15 mph... will continue the cold air advection pattern and only
allow area temps to rebound into the 40s for most areas... despite
plenty of sunshine. Northerly winds will greatly diminish tonight.
This coupled with clear skies and dewpoints in the teens will
support strong radiational cooling and provide some of the coldest
low temps felt so far this winter. Decided to go a degree or two
cooler than guidance... with lows from the teens across parts of far
north GA to mid and upper 20s across the far southern reaches of the
forecast area by early Saturday morning. High pressure settles over
the southeast on Saturday and begins to modify. This ends the cold
air advection process... and along with ample sunshine... should
allow highs on Saturday to rebound into the 40s and 50s... yet still
probably 5 to 8 degrees cooler than normal for most areas.
Otherwise... enjoy the dry/cool pattern through the weekend.
Remember... the extra cold temperatures tonight will warrant
protecting pets... pipes and sensitive plants. Also... don`t forget
to check on the elderly and use extra caution when using space
LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Models are struggling a bit in the long term when it comes to a
couple of fronts approaching the area. To start the long term,
models are in good agreement with High pressure to the north
yielding the typical CAD profile across north/central Georgia
Sunday. This will allow temperature to stay below climo for those
within the wedge, around 50 degrees to around 60 across the south.
The sfc high will eventually push offshore ahead of the next
system. A cold front associated with a potent low ejecting out of
the central CONUS will move toward Georgia by Monday. This will
mean an increase chance of precipitation through the day as the
front approaches. The models start to diverge a bit on the exact
placement of the front. The boundary will then act as a focus for
a series of sfc lows to ride northward. This means warmer and more
wet conditions through mid-week. The exact placement of the front
will heavily influence temperatures and precipitation through
this period. Only expecting a half an inch of rain or so from
Sunday night through Wednesday.
A sfc low will develop off the Carolina coast and move out to
sea Wednesday, all ahead of the next trough and associated cold
front progged to cross Thursday. Models tend to go back and forth
on the amplitude of such troughs this time of year due to the
projected snow cover to the north and forecasted temps across the
Great Lakes. More often than not, we see models moderate a bit when
it comes to these troughs because of the aforementioned trends.
However, I think confidence is building that another shot of cooler
air may move through the latter portion of the work-week. Cold high
pressure across the Dakotas will start to build east, with below
normal temps possible by the end of the period.
High pressure will provide for VFR conditions through the taf
period. Therefore... mainly a wind forecast. Will see NNW winds
around 10-12kts today with ocnl higher gusts to around 20kts. NNW
winds diminish by this evening to around 4-6kts. Winds swing over NE
by 15z Sat as surface ridge slips east... with wind speeds around 5
to 7kts expected on Sat.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 45 25 48 28 / 0 0 0 5
Atlanta 41 25 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 36 18 44 22 / 0 0 0 5
Cartersville 40 22 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 47 27 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 42 25 46 29 / 0 0 0 5
Macon 47 24 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 41 21 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 43 22 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 49 30 53 35 / 0 0 0 5