Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 280829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES IN FAR NORTHERN GA ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO
DROP DUE TO THE GRADIENT...AND SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER. WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FREEZE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS ARE JUST TOO CLOSE. THE GRADIENT STILL HAS
TIME TO RELAX AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. THIS MEANS THAT THE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH OVERNIGHT VALUES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CHANGED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. IF MODELS COME IN A LITTLE COOLER IN
SUCCESSIVE RUNS...THE FREEZE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BY FOLLOWING SHIFTS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXITING THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO N GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS A BIT LOW SO WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS...NO THUNDER FOR MONDAY.
MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF TX TUE AND PUSHING INTO
GA TUES NIGHT/WED. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE THAN
THE ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY SO DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS
GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FEW COLD AIR STRATO CU WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 12KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  28  59  44 /   5   5   0  40
ATLANTA         51  32  59  47 /   5   5   0  40
BLAIRSVILLE     44  23  54  42 /   5   5   0  60
CARTERSVILLE    50  27  60  46 /   5   5   0  50
COLUMBUS        56  34  63  48 /   0   5   0  20
GAINESVILLE     50  28  57  45 /   5   5   0  50
MACON           57  31  61  45 /   0   5   0  10
ROME            51  26  60  47 /   5   0   0  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  60  46 /   5   5   0  40
VIDALIA         58  34  62  45 /   0   5   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA


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