Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 021923
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
HAS YET AGAIN CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ANALYZED CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN OUR
CWA...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES
WILL ALSO BE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE.

WHILE THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.

THE CWA WILL STILL RESIDE IN THE SAME ACTIVE PATTERN LEADING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT
TERN DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

RW

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG WAVE TROUGH ISNT PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO THE CWFA WILL REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED NW FLOW PATTERN.
THIS MEANS POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL DROP SE IN THE FLOW...ACCOMPANIED
BY AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT BY MID WEEK AND BECOME MORE ZONAL.
THE GULF WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE CWFA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE MADE...WITH SOME HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VRB WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS
THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL RETURN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  86  70  86 /  50  40  30  40
ATLANTA         72  84  71  85 /  50  40  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  77  64  76 /  70  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  83  68  82 /  70  60  50  60
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  89 /  30  30  20  40
GAINESVILLE     70  81  69  81 /  60  60  40  50
MACON           71  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  83  69  82 /  70  60  50  60
PEACHTREE CITY  71  85  70  87 /  50  40  30  40
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW


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