Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 220746
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Short term forecast largely marked by frontal passage this afternoon
into Tuesday morning. Rapid increase in moisture is still expected,
with shower activity beginning as early as this afternoon. Expect
overcast skies with prominent low level moisture by late morning,
which should act to keep instability limited. Regardless, most
unstable CAPE still looks to be enough to support scattered
thunderstorms, generally just ahead of the front, though best mid
level forcing could pass north of the area in the TN Valley. SPC
does have portions of western and central Georgia in a Marginal Risk
for severe storms. Given the front will move into eastern Georgia in
the early morning hours, waning instability is not likely to support
any strong activity. Have good chance to categorical pops beginning
18-20Z in far northwest Georgia, then quickly spreading them south
and east into the overnight period. Moisture quickly exits into
Tuesday, with only slight chance pops in the far southeast corner of
the CWA by 15Z/mid morning.

Model guidance has been having difficulty with the warm/more mild
temperatures over the state over the weekend. As a result, generally
went with an adjusted upward blend of the guidance for highs today
and Tuesday. Precip and cloud cover are still expected to dampen
insolation, but still expect we could be in the mid 60s to low 70s
this afternoon. Highs Tuesday will run 8-10 degrees cooler as a
result of the frontal passage.

31


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Models continue in close agreement with the long term. A
relatively progressive pattern will continue through the long term
with the next short wave moving across the region late Friday and into
the weekend. Guidance continues to give high pops
Saturday/Saturday night and this seems reasonable as a wedge sets
up Friday with gulf moisture overrunning the wedge Saturday.
Strong isentropic lift in the lower levels across north Georgia
Saturday should produce light rain/drizzle ahead of the deepest
moisture which doesn`t move into the CWA until late Saturday and
Saturday night. At this time instability will be minimal and
therefore will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast.

The associated cold front will move across the CWA Sunday ending
the precip from the northwest Sunday night. Colder air will spread
across the CWA Sunday night. There will also be some lingering
moisture across extreme north GA Sunday night, and with the colder
air some of the rain could be briefly mixed with light snow or
flurries before ending.

17


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z Update...
VFR conditions will degrade by 12-14Z this morning as enhanced
moisture moves into the state. Expect to see IFR by early
afternoon as front approaches from the west. Light rain is
expected as early as 18-22Z, with the potential for thunder
generally after 00Z. Cigs will improve after 06Z, with VFR
expected by 09-11Z. Winds will initially be SE, but will shift to
the SW behind the main precip activity, and then to the NW by
09-12Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on LIFR cigs.
High on remaining elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  50  60  33 /  50  70  10   5
Atlanta         65  46  57  33 /  50  70   5   5
Blairsville     59  40  50  27 /  80 100  10   5
Cartersville    64  42  54  30 /  80 100   5   5
Columbus        67  48  60  36 /  60  60  10   0
Gainesville     61  45  55  32 /  70  90  10   5
Macon           70  51  63  35 /  30  60  20   0
Rome            65  41  53  30 /  80 100  10   5
Peachtree City  66  46  59  32 /  50  70   5   5
Vidalia         73  58  67  38 /  20  60  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31


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