Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301747
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1247 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Did lower temps across NE ND this aftn with thicker cloud cover
lingering. Otherwise forecast on track with stratus deck
continuing to erode from east to west as it lifts to the
northwest on the south southeasterly low level flow.

UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Minimal updates to the forecast this morning. Sky cover and fog
area from BJI to TVF is continuing to advance northward and
showing signs of eroding on its edges. No changes to max temps.

UPDATE Issued at 713 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The finger of low clouds and fog has continued to move northward,
and has now pushed into the Fosston and Bemidji areas. These
clouds are also down along the ND and SD border, but these have
not spread northward as far. There are also clouds across
northeast ND up into the northwest corner of MN. In between all
these areas is a clear wedge. So all said, still expecting a mix
of sun and clouds today. Finally, there are a few echoes over the
northern Red River Valley, which are producing a few sprinkles.
May continue these for a few more hours before they should go
away.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The main challenge today will be cloud trends and temps. South
winds early this morning have remained steady or even gusty in a
few locations, helping to keep temperatures up as well, especially
along the Canadian border. This will help to continue the fairly
rapid snowmelt up in that area. Expect to see a mix of clouds and
sun today, with highs just a little cooler than yesterday. There
are a few light sprinkles or showers on radar, but have seen no
ground confirmation of anything. This activity should continue
through sunrise then dissipate. Winds become light again tonight,
so there could be a few spots with fog, but overall not expecting
too much.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Next weak impulse brings some light pcpn into the northwest FA on
Friday. Bigger effect will be more cloud cover in the west and
therefore a little cooler temps there too. These rain chances then
spread eastward to include most of the northern FA Friday night
into early Saturday. Again, this brings more cloud cover to the
north and slightly cooler highs Saturday.

The flow remains progressive through the period. The flow was split
with the northern stream over southern Canada and the southern
stream over the southern states. The flow becomes more consolidated
by the end of the period. Longwave trough west of AK shifts to the
Gulf of AK. Zonal flow over southern Canada becomes a flat long wave
ridge over western North America.

At the beginning of the period, both the ECMWF and the GFS have
shifted south. Also the GFS was trending a little slower over the
past couple model runs. Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF was
slower and farther south while the GFS becomes faster and farther
south over the last couple model runs. Will blend the models.

High temperatures about a degree or so for Sun, Mon and Tue. Wed
high temps were decreased one to three degrees from yesterdays
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Generally VFR conditions with south winds 10 to 15kt this
afternoon. Tempo stratus deck around 2000ft at Fargo, Grand Forks
and TVF early afternoon. Winds decrease again tonight with
another round of fog possible developing in west central MN
towards morning. Have kept out of TAFs for now.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Low temperatures tonight through late week look to remain above
freezing at night, so expect the snow melt to continue for areas
that still have snow.

The crest forecast for the Park River at Grafton has been adjusted
down slightly. This morning the pool at Homme Dam has leveled off
around 1801 ft. This seems to be the pool height crest and not just
a slowing down of the melt runoff with cooling temperatures
overnight. The fact that the pool height appears to be cresting
early suggests that there were significant losses from the snowpack
to sublimation and infiltration in the Park River Basin.
Therefore...based on the response at Homme Dam, the crest value of
the Park at Grafton has been adjusted downward to 14.5 feet, with a
range potential of 13.5 to 15.0 feet.

The Red River continues to rise north of Grand Forks, with Pembina
still looking to reach 43 to 45 feet around April 3. Hallock reached
moderate flood stage this morning and is expected to crest around
807.0 feet sometime Thursday afternoon before beginning to recede.

Melting continues across the Pembina River basin, with both Walhalla
and Neche near action stage. The forecasts currently show Walhalla
reaching minor flood stage, and Neche is still forecast to
eventually rise to major flood stage Saturday evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Areal Flood Warning is in effect for Cavalier, Pembina and
portions of Towner Counties until 12pm April 3rd.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JH
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JH



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