Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS SNOW TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL UTILIZE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW TRENDS TODAY.

MOST DISTINCT SNOW BAND WITH LOWEST VSBY OVER THE SW FA SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. VSBYS IN THIS REGION
1/4-1 MILE AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH RETURNS WEAKER AND VSBY HAS
RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1-3 MILES. WINDS ALSO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
TO GENERAL 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH VSBY NOT A PROBLEM
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BY
EVENING AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL WITH EXCEPTION OF
THE SW LOOKING AT GENERAL 1-2 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING SHOULD SEE A MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST WHICH SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS.

SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE QUIET. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD.

DAY TIME MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WAVE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL
BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN INTO MIDWEEK BUT NOTHING SERIOUS.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A MORE ZONAL...PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
DEVELOPS...FLOODING MUCH OF THE US WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS THUR NIGHT/FRI WITH
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAINING WITH SFC FEATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIP
CHANCES. FOR ANY PRECIP...PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH GFS/ECMWF
BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C BY THUR NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS
THUR-SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WITH EVEN SOME
40S POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS AND AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ANDWEST CENTRAL MN. IN
EASTERN ND...SNOW HAS TAPPERED OFF TO FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS...
LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING. AS
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT... THIN BAND OF LOW MVFR CIGS
IN EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SHOW SOME BREAKS
AND...WITH THESE BREAKS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MN BY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST


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