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000
FXUS64 KFWD 241539 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING FURTHER INTO THE REGION WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS BELL AND MILAM COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR
AND WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE UPDATE...ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DOWN A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE
THE RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
TECHNICALLY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT OUT TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL STILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO
FOR THE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE ARE WATCHING A PATCH OF
IFR CIGS NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WHICH HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST. IT SEEMS THESE CIGS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
AREAS THAT SAW MORE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY/S STORMS AND THEREFORE
SHOULD DISPERSE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER/WARMER URBAN AREAS.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THEM FOR DFW/DAL TAFS THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS NEAR 050 WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH A CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
AFTER YESTERDAYS STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS...THINGS SHOULD BE QUIETER TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING EAST OF WACO THIS MORNING AND THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION WAS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND
SENT A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS HAS HELPED TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM WHERE
THEY WERE YESTERDAY MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SOUTHWEST OF
AUSTIN NOW AND EXTENDS BACK EAST TOWARD HOUSTON. THIS SHOULD BE
WHERE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
LATER TODAY...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
OPPRESSIVE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE 102 TO 105 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONTINUED HOT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. WHILE IT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY...WE MAY ACTUALLY MIX DEWPOINTS A LITTLE
LOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP OUT A BIT.

MEANWHILE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL REINFORCE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY.
WHILE IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT IT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE REGION AND
MAY ACTUALLY HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THERE IS A
DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WILL LIKELY HELP SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON MONDAY. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 90S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DEEP TROUGHING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WHICH WILL MEAN CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR NORTH
TEXAS...WITH STRONG RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ANY SHIFT IN THESE
FEATURES COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW...WILL SHOW A STEADY DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S/LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  79 102  79 101 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              97  77 100  77 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             90  74  98  76  99 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            97  77 101  76 101 /   5   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          93  76 100  75 100 /   5   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  79 102  80 102 /   5   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76 101  76 101 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         96  76 101  76 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            97  75  99  74  99 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  75 103  75 102 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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