Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1258 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An area of low clouds around FL030 associated with a synoptic low
pressure circulation continues to pivot eastward. These clouds
will graze DFW Metroplex TAF sites this afternoon but expect
coverage to remain FEW/SCT precluding any low VFR cig mention in
the TAFs. At Waco, SKC conditions will prevail through the rest of
the day. Meanwhile, northwest winds have begin to decrease and
will continue to do so through this evening. Winds are expected to
become light and variable by sunset and remain light overnight.

Early Sunday morning, winds will return to the south. Southerly
flow will bring in an area of modest low-level moisture, possibly
resulting in some ragged MVFR stratus across parts of Central TX.
Have included a tempo mention for cigs around FL015 at Waco but
do not expect cigs at DFW Metroplex sites. South winds will
increase and become gusty by midday with gusts of 20-30 kts
possible. There is a low potential for isolated thunderstorms
which could affect the TAF sites or TRACON cornerposts later
Sunday afternoon, but this potential is too low to include in the
extended DFW TAF at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
A departing linear MCS is currently impacting areas as far east as
the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms are still swirling in
Oklahoma near the center of a cyclone, but North and Central Texas
are now fully ensconced in the system`s downglide. Postfrontal
winds are ushering in a late season chill, and for much of the
region, these will be the coolest daytime temperatures in more
than a week. But with full sunshine today, temperatures will still
reach or exceed normal highs though steady northwest winds might
suggest otherwise.

With progressive flow aloft, the modified mP air mass will quickly
move east of the area, and southerly surface winds will be in
place by daybreak Sunday morning. At this time the next shortwave
will be emerging from the Rockies. It will deepen above the High
Plains during the day Sunday, pulling Gulf moisture north into
North and Central Texas. These gusty south winds will result in a
rapid recovery of dew points, but the 60F isodrosotherm may take
much of the day to approach the Red River. The result will be
decent surface-based instability, but a moisture depth that may be
insufficient for deep convection. A dryline will make some
progress eastward during the day Sunday, but with paltry 700mb
flow in its vicinity far separated from the parent cyclone, it may
be late in the day before it invades our western zones. This is
indicative of a dryline with little forcing for ascent on the
humid side. Much of the short-range guidance is uninclined to
make the dryline a focus for afternoon convective activity though
some synoptic guidance sees the instability adequate for
initiation. Afternoon activity may be limited to isolated cells
deeper into the humid air where the cap may be able to be overcome
late in the day. Hodographs will favor supercells with all modes
of severe weather.

The main upper forcing will arrive during the evening hours
Sunday, which may be the most likely window for strong/severe
storms within North Texas. It still appears that the most
favorable environment will be north of the Red River, but as a
low-level jet ensues, nocturnal initiation may occur in areas
mainly east of I-35 and north of I-20. The instability will be on
the wane when the surface boundary is finally synoptically forced
through the region late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Drier weather will arrive on Monday, but return flow will surge
moisture back into the region on Tuesday. A powerful storm system
will be swinging out of the Desert Southwest, and West Texas may
see significant dryline convection Tuesday afternoon. Some of this
activity may reach our western zones as early as Tuesday evening.
As forcing for ascent spreads east across North and Central Texas
Tuesday night into Wednesday, widespread showers and thunderstorms
will occur. With widespread morning activity, the afternoon severe
potential may be east of our area on Wednesday, making this
primarily a heavy rain event. While too early to highlight
specific amounts, this is looking more and more likely to be the
most widespread significant rain event in many weeks.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  55  83  59  80 /   0   0  30  30   0
Waco                75  51  84  60  81 /   0   0  10  20   0
Paris               69  50  82  59  76 /   0   0  20  50  10
Denton              71  50  82  57  77 /   0   0  30  30   0
McKinney            71  49  82  58  77 /   0   0  30  40   0
Dallas              73  55  85  60  80 /   0   0  30  30   0
Terrell             72  51  83  59  78 /   0   0  20  30   5
Corsicana           72  53  84  60  79 /   0   0  20  20   5
Temple              75  53  84  60  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
Mineral Wells       73  51  85  54  80 /   0   0  20  10   0




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