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000
FXUS64 KFWD 101116
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN EXITING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HEADING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE OVER
NORTH TEXAS. AIRPORTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE
TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES SLIDING
SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE METROPLEX LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BRINGING BACK THE 10 KT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11/18Z.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND BRING
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. AFTER A
COLD MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
20S...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY TODAY UNDER FULL SUN AND A
DECREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH SHOULD REALLY DECREASE THE
COVERAGE OF ICE AND SLEET ACROSS THE REGION. SOME ICE WILL STILL
REMAIN IN PLACE IN LOCATIONS THAT STAY SHADED AND ANY RESIDUAL
WATER WILL REFREEZE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
20S.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 40S WITH SEVERAL HOURS
OF SUN. DRY AIR AND DECREASING NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID RADIATION COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND RETURNS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE REGION-WIDE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL ZONES SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND
THE GULF FINALLY OPENS UP. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SOME BRIEF RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND KEEP RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  39  27  45  28  48 /   0   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              41  27  47  28  48 /   5   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             38  26  45  23  44 /   0   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            37  26  43  23  44 /   0   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          38  26  45  24  44 /   0   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            41  30  44  29  47 /   0   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           40  28  47  27  46 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  28  49  30  48 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            41  27  47  28  48 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  26  42  22  46 /   0   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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