Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180535 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

MOIST AIR RAISING OVER COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSURE THAT
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
DURING THIS FORECAST.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN RETURNING TO IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 19/00Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST.

KACT WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18/09Z THEN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR
CONDITIONS 19/00 TO 19/03Z THEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES. SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.     75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS WITH
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ON THE WANE. HOWEVER...A GOOD PLUME OF
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
850MB FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE.

HAVE TRIMMED RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES ..THOUGH
SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. THE METROPLEX WILL BE RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE BEST FORCING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST WITH MID LEVELS STABILIZING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 35-40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-20 TO THE 40S
SOUTH. CONTINUING 925-850MB WAA OVER THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...
LASTING INTO MID TO LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE...CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/
AFTER A SOMEWHAT SLOW START...THE RAIN SHIELD HAS STEADILY
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVANCED INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS OF 3 PM. THE SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NM/FAR WEST TEXAS THAT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO OK BY LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING
MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 06Z. INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL WITH SOME
OF THE CELLS IN TARRANT AND SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTIES...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE GREAT BULK OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SHOULD EXPERIENCE
JUST RAIN.

NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER...LARGER AND MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SE TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN EVOLVING OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR
NORTH...AND IN WHAT AMOUNTS...THIS RAIN WILL EXPAND INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
OUR THINKING...BASED ON CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS...IS THAT A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH...IF THAT
MUCH. QPFS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
RICHER...SHOULD BE MORE GENEROUS - PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...AND WITH ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...THE FORECAST INTO MID-WEEK SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY. DID INCLUDE A SMALL POP FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35 FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

BRADSHAW



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  41  61  47  51  38 /  80   5  40  50  20
WACO, TX              46  62  49  54  39 /  60  10  70  70  10
PARIS, TX             36  51  43  48  38 /  90  10  30  50  30
DENTON, TX            39  59  44  49  36 /  70   5  30  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          39  57  44  50  37 /  80  10  40  40  20
DALLAS, TX            41  60  47  51  40 /  80   5  40  50  20
TERRELL, TX           41  58  47  50  39 /  90  10  50  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         44  63  49  52  41 /  90  10  70  70  20
TEMPLE, TX            48  64  50  55  40 /  60  20  80  80  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     42  60  44  51  35 /  20   5  40  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




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