050
FXUS64 KFWD 080116
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
816 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Wednesday/

A warm front continues to drift northwestward across the region.
In our southwest, MLCAPE values have soared above 3000 J/kg as the
mT air returned. Better moisture convergence beyond our
southwestern frontier was evidenced by a few congested cumulus in
the vicinity of Junction and Brady, but CIN continues to win out.
We`ll still need to watch this area through the mid-evening before
the loss of daytime heating reinforces the inhibition. Any cell
that is able to develop could quickly become severe with large
hail and damaging winds. Despite the backed surface winds near the
boundary, generally weak flow beneath the LCL should limit the
tornadic potential. After dark, our focus will shift to Northeast
Texas where a strengthening low-level jet will ride over the
retreating frontal boundary. While these storms would also pose a
hail/wind threat, the window will be small before the main forcing
shifts deeper into the Ark-La-Tex.

Nocturnal stratus within the low-level jet will race northward,
blanketing much of the region well before daybreak. Noticeably
more humid conditions will be in place by sunrise, with many
locations enduring dew points well into the 70s. The May sunshine
will eventually lift/erode the cloud deck, and afternoon
temperatures will soar above normal again on Wednesday. A cold
front will enter the region late in the day, the veering surface
flow enhancing afternoon highs. The veering prefrontal flow will
also limit the convective potential along much of the boundary.
However, east of the I-35 corridor where richer boundary layer
moisture will coincide with surface flow less prone to veering,
we`ll expect convective initiation during the afternoon hours.
CAMs continue to focus storms in areas east and northeast of the
Metroplex. Considerable MLCAPE values will mean a threat for large
hail and damaging winds. Initial discrete cells, particularly
those near the boundary, may also pose a tornado threat with
stronger surface flow and rather low LCLs for peak heating. The
activity, along with the accompanying front, should exit to our
east by late evening.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/Thursday and Beyond/

Weak surface low pressure will shift across the Ohio River Valley
Thursday with a trailing cold front extending into portions of
East and Central Texas. This frontal boundary will serve as a
focus for scattered thunderstorm development Thursday
afternoon/evening (not everyone will see storms!) as it gradually
pushes toward the Texas Gulf Coast. 7.5-8.0 degreeC/km mid-level
lapse rates atop a very moist airmass marked by surface dewpoints
in the low to mid-70s will lead to strong instability ahead of the
frontal boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE by Thursday afternoon
across much of Central Texas. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear
will allow for organized storm structures capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow will
likely keep the tornado threat low. The greatest storm chances
will remain along/south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon
into early Thursday evening until the cold front finally pushes
out of our forecast area late Thursday evening. We will also need
to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding, especially since the bulk of this rainfall is expected
to fall over already water-logged areas across Central and East
Texas.

Northerly low-level flow behind the frontal boundary will usher in
a drier, cooler airmass, allowing for a nice start to the weekend
with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the
mid-50s to low 60s expected Friday and Saturday.

Onshore flow will return to North and Central Texas by Sunday
beginning a gradual increase in low-level moisture and cloud
cover. Isolated to scattered rain chances could return to the
region by early Sunday across our west and south on the nose of
this stronger warm/moist advection, especially as a mid-level
disturbance approaches from the west. An active subtropical jet
overtop sufficient moisture will keep at least daily low to medium
chances for rain through the midweek period across North and
Central Texas. Limited instability will likely keep the severe
threat on the lower end through at least Monday, but we will need
to assess this potential further as we get closer to the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns include storm potential and MVFR ceilings in the morning.

Convective attempts are struggling in the Hill Country, but an
evening storm or two may approach Waco through mid-evening.
Development later this evening across Northeast Texas may impact
eastern departures and arrivals through the Bonham cornerpost, but
the window for this activity will be small.

A low-level jet may introduce some marginal LLWS though increasing
wind speeds within the surface layer will be breezy. This low-
level jet will surge stratus northward. Waco will have the greater
potential for IFR, particularly with the initial surge, but
ceilings may also briefly dip below 1000ft AGL within the
Metroplex. VFR will return by midday.

A cold front will veer the surface flow Wednesday afternoon. In
addition, storms may develop along the boundary near Dallas. These
would also impact eastern departures and arrivals through the
Bonham cornerpost during the afternoon and evening before the
activity exits to our east. The frontal wind shift is beyond the
scope of most of the TAFs but has been introduced into the
extended portion of the DFW TAF (Wednesday evening).

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  67  81  62 /   5  10  10  30  20
Waco                73  88  71  82  62 /  10  10   5  40  20
Paris               70  86  63  81  59 /  10  30  40  30  20
Denton              70  90  63  81  58 /   0  10  10  20  10
McKinney            71  90  64  80  59 /   5  20  20  30  10
Dallas              73  91  67  82  62 /   5  20  10  30  20
Terrell             72  87  67  82  60 /  20  20  20  30  20
Corsicana           74  89  71  84  62 /  10  20  10  40  20
Temple              73  89  70  84  62 /  20  10   5  40  10
Mineral Wells       70  91  63  80  58 /   0   5   5  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$