Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

An elongated ridge extending from the Desert Southwest to the
Southern Plains will continue to generate subsidence across most
of North and Central Texas, and should result in quiet aviation
weather at the local airports through the duration of the forecast
period. Isolated thunderstorms will approach from the east and
northeast late this afternoon but should diminish well before
reaching TAF sites. This activity is a result of a large easterly
wave extending from the Gulf northward through the MS valley.
Storms will get a little closer Sunday afternoon as the wave
trudges slowly west, but probabilities are too low at this time to
include in the extended DFW TAF.

Better opportunities for diurnal convective weather will occur
Monday through the middle of next week as the trough works its way
west across Texas.



Morning satellite imagery and upper air analysis reveals sprawling
high pressure which extends from the Desert Southwest, eastward
into the Southern Great Plains. A shortwave currently resides
along its eastern periphery--across the lower Tennessee Valley--
and this will begin to influence our weather in a more noticeable
way tomorrow and into Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming week.

Morning model guidance indicates a bit more moisture in the
925-700 mb layer will slosh into our eastern-most zones today with
mixing ratios increasing into the 11-13 g/kg range. Combined with
plenty of diabatic heating, this should be enough to spark off
some diurnally-driven storms this afternoon. Only anticipate
limited coverage given the degree of of subsidence still present
on the eastern fringes of the aformentioned high. That said, have
thrown in isolated thunderstorm wording (10-15% PoPs) this
afternoon east of a roughly Bonham to Palestine line.

Otherwise, another hot day is on tap with high temperatures
expected to top out once again near the century mark. May see some
heat index values approach 105-106 degrees this afternoon mainly
across our eastern zones, but as the previous shift mentioned,
these values will be short-lived as highs fall slightly tomorrow.



After another day or two of 100-degree heat, North and Central
Texas`s (relatively) brief flirtation with the century mark should
come to an end for several days. On the flip side, our rain
chances will creep upward, which should be welcome news for

The large ridge draped across the central and western portions of
the country will hold sway again today, but weaken slightly and
recede westward by Monday. The key weather driver for our region
will be the approach - from the east - of a weak upper level
shortwave, now located over the lower Tennessee Valley. This
feature will slip westward along the southern rim of the upper
ridge, providing subtle lift over the area starting late Sunday,
and especially Monday and Tuesday. With the GFS and ECMWF both
advertising a marked increase in precipitable water, and together
with the SREF, increased QPFs with the approach of this shortwave,
have included 30-40% PoPs over most of the eastern 2/3rds of
North Texas Monday and Tuesday. This shortwave should damp out and
move west of us by Wednesday, but the ongoing upper level easterly
flow pattern, together with increased moisture, justify at least
some low PoPs Wednesday.

By Thursday and Friday, the primary upper high should be well west
of Texas, leaving us in a weak northwesterly flow regime.
Attention from Thursday evening through Saturday may shift to our
northern counties, where convection may drift in from Oklahoma,
forced by multiple shortwaves that are dropping southeastward
through the Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley with the
main northern stream of the jet. Didn`t go too crazy with PoPs in
this time horizon, but did include small chances near the Red
River. If a weak frontal or outflow boundary manages to enter
Oklahoma by the end of next week, it`s certainly not out of the
question that extreme North Central Texas could see some
thunderstorm activity - probably during the overnight hours.

On the temperature front, the persistent strength of the upper
ridge should facilitate 100-degree highs across much of North and
Central Texas both today and Sunday. Increased moisture,
cloudcover, scattered rainfall, and modestly lower thicknesses
should all conspire to reel our highs back into the 90s starting
Monday, and continue all week. It`s a tad premature to break out
the parkas, but seasonably normal readings in the mid to upper 90s
should be the norm.

Heat indices will probably climb into the 106-107 range in our
northeast counties today, and push 105 in many other locations.
These values will retreat on Sunday, and given the lack of
persistence, will forego a Heat Advisory at this time.



Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80  99  79  96 /   5  10  10  10  30
Waco               101  78 100  77  97 /   5   5  10  10  30
Paris               99  77  98  76  94 /  10  10  20  20  40
Denton             100  77  98  76  95 /   5   5  10  10  30
McKinney            99  78  98  77  95 /   5  10  10  10  30
Dallas             100  81  99  80  96 /   5  10  10  10  30
Terrell             99  77  98  76  95 /  10  10  10  20  40
Corsicana           99  78  96  77  95 /  10  10  10  20  30
Temple             100  77  98  76  97 /   5   5  10  10  20
Mineral Wells      100  75  99  75  96 /   5   5  10  10  20


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