Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
225 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A light wind and a mostly clear sky will result in some patchy fog
across the eastern and southern portions of the forecast area
early this morning. A few spots could see visibilities reduced to
around 1 mile, but wind speeds should stay up just enough to
prevent widespread dense fog from forming. Any fog that does
develop will dissipate by mid morning and give way to a mostly
sunny sky.

Pacific moisture will increase from west to east today as an
upper level low rotates across the West Coast. The main energy
will remain just offshore the next several days but some short
waves will branch off and translate east across the CONUS. The
first wave which is currently across the Desert Southwest will
move into the Central Plains tonight and allow a weak cold front
to move south. The cold front is progged by nearly all models to
remain north of the Red River. However, the GFS does bring some
showers and storms to the northeast quarter of North Texas
Wednesday night. For now we feel this solution is too aggressive
since nearly all large scale forcing for ascent will be displaced
well to the north and meso-scale lift along the front will also
remain north. Therefore, we will not introduce any pops into the
forecast for the Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame.

Upper level high pressure will build in from the west behind the
mid week short wave and remain in place through the weekend.
Another short wave will translate across the Central Plains late
Friday through Saturday but this feature should have little if any
direct influence on the weather across North and Central Texas
with the exception of keeping a constant influx of low level
moisture due to surface lee troughing.

The weather pattern will not change much to start the first week
of November with southwest flow aloft and a persistent feed of
Gulf moisture.

Temperatures through early next week will be fairly consistent
with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the lower and
middle 60s.



/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---VFR for the DFW Metroplex. MVFR visibility and ceiling
potential at Waco Tuesday morning.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR is expected to prevail through
a bulk of the 06 UTC TAF cycle. Low level flow appears as if it
will be too weak to support transport of any MVFR stratus this
far northward during the overnight hours. High clouds will invade
from the northwest ahead of a potent longwave trough across the
western portion of the U.S. Diurnal VFR CU along with mid/upper
level clouds will build through the day ahead of this feature.
There appears to be a signal from some model guidance that there
may be the potential for some MVFR stratus at the tail end of the
30 hour DFW TAF. Low confidence in the timing of the MVFR stratus,
however, warrants keeping the TAFs VFR for now.

For the Waco TAF site---A slightly tricker TAF here as there has
been some signal in the model guidance for restricted ceilings
and visibility. A couple of ingredients are already in place that
would facilitate fog development (clear skies though a few thin high
clouds are possible and light winds). The somewhat unknown
ingredient is sufficient low level moisture. Dewpoint depressions
across central McLennan County have also fallen to around 3-6
degrees. More important to Waco Regional will be the slightly
veering winds that are forecast to occur. If this occurs highly
localized moisture advection across the airfield compliments of
Lake Waco will occur, and could result in even poorer ceilings
(IFR) than currently forecast. The latest consensus of high-
resolution model output remains fairly aggressive with low
visibilities per raw output and there appears to be a reflection
of this in both NAM and RAP forecast profiles. Because of the
uncertainty as to how reduced visibilities will fall (should fog
occur), I`ll TEMPO MVFR visibility around 3SM from 11 UTC to 15
UTC. As this layer lifts, it`s likely that there will be some
brief periods of near IFR to MVFR ceilings. Thereafter, diurnal
VFR CU should develop in the afternoon.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  84  64  85  65 /   5   5  10   0   0
Waco                62  85  61  86  61 /   5   5   5   0   0
Paris               59  82  60  84  61 /   5  10  10   5   0
Denton              62  84  61  84  62 /   5   5  10   0   0
McKinney            62  83  61  84  62 /   5   5  10   0   0
Dallas              65  84  65  85  65 /   5   5  10   0   0
Terrell             62  83  61  84  61 /   5   5  10   0   0
Corsicana           62  84  62  85  61 /   5   5   5   0   0
Temple              61  84  61  85  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       61  85  60  85  60 /   5   5   5   0   0




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