Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 020839
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SHOWERS AND STORMS KEEP MOVING
FROM NW TO SE. KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE VCTS OR
-TSRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
ENDING NEAR DAYBREAK SO TAFS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH 21Z. TAF SITES SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE
FAVORED TODAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED
TODAY...BUT IF THEY DO THEY SHOULD NOT STAY DOWN TOO LONG AS
SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT AWAY. MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE UP
NORTH...WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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