Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 272146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
346 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
DIVIDE. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE EVENING. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD
BE A TAD BIT COOLER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND DUE TO A DRIER AIR MASS.

HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CARVE
OUT A DOMINATE TROUGH ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PUSHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS...BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED AS
THE SOUTHERN END WILL BE LAGGING BACK TO NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. DRIER
AIR IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE KEEPS
SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE THE EASTERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF DARKNESS AS FORCING REMAINS WELL OF TO THE
NORTHWEST. 315K SURFACES SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW DIRECTING MOSITURE OVER
THE LOWER PASSES OF NEW MEXICO THEN BACK NORTHWARD EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE POP BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE PREDICTABILITY AND PROBABILITY OF A LARGE WESTERN
NOAM TROUGH AND EAST NOAM RIDGE IS FAIRLY HIGH WILL INTO NEXT WEEK
SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE
PUSH OF MOISTURE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY AND
A WEAKENING BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL FAVOR CONVECTION OVER
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN
BUILD FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADDITIONAL
TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY SHOULD
PEAK ON MONDAY OVER OUR CWA AS MED RANGE MODELS ARE ALL PICKING OUT
A MORE DEFINED PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. BEYOND THIS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE DRYING OUT...LEAVING THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UNTIL AROUND 20Z...AN ENHANCED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. THE BACK
END OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED KGJT AND WILL STAY EAST
OF A LINE FROM DELTA TO PARACHUTE. BY 20Z...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AT TIMES THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.
AND MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCD AT TIMES. A DOWNTURN IS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS
PERSISTING AFTER 04Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH



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