Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 072303
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
603 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO BE ON TEMPS AS HI PRES
TO BRING A PLEASANT...BUT COOL AIR MASS TO THE REGION.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CDFNT RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED SVR WEATHER STRETECHED FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SW TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY AND IT IS THIS FEATURE
THAT WL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VSBL
SATL IMAGERY INDICATED FAIR WEATHER CU WAS BEGINNING TO THIN AND
THIS TREND WL CONT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TNGT
AND BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER COOL
CONDITIONS FOR JULY STANDARDS. IN FACT...IT MAY BE COOL ENUF THAT
SOME LOCATIONS OVER NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI COULD GET CLOSE TO
RECORD MIN TEMP TERRITORY. HAVE KEPT THE PATCHY FROST WORDING FOR
PARTS OF N-CNTRL WI AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 30S.
ELSEWHERE...READINGS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S OVER THE
REST OF NRN WI...MID TO UPR 40S SOUTH. LASTLY...THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL WI WHERE
HEAVY RAINS FELL YESTERDAY.

AS THE SFC HI SLIDES TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON WED...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH OVER CNTRL WI AND E-SE OVER ERN WI.
THE ONSET OF WEAK WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK TO TEMPS AS
READINGS REACH THE LWR TO MID 70S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 60S NEAR
LAKE MI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A CHANGE TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM NW TO SW BY
LATE IN THE WEEK THAT WL USHER IN A MUCH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR
MASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN FCST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE WEEKEND
AS THE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO THE HANDLING OF A WARM
FRONT.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SENDING A SFC WAVE ALONG THE OLD
CDFNT...NOW STALLED ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
NE WI WL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...WHICH
LEAVES WEAK HI PRES STRETCHED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD CONTS TO SLOWLY WARM...THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER NGT WITH FEW CLOUDS OR ANY WIND...MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S NORTH...LWR TO MID 50S SOUTH. THE WEAK HI
PRES IS FCST TO HOLD ON OVER THE REGION THRU THU...THUS A
CONTINUATION OF QUIET WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AND A
GRADUAL RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LWR TO MID 70S LAKESIDE...GENERALLY MID TO UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE MEAN FLOW IS SPLIT OFF THE WEST COAST AT THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE SRN STREAM AS AN
UPR TROF MOVES INLAND OVER CA. THE RESULTANT SW FLOW OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS WL NOT ONLY BEGIN TO USHER EVEN WARMER...MORE MOIST
AIR INTO WI...BUT ALSO START TO LIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH NWD AS A WRMFNT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR FRI WL BE HOW
FAST THIS FNT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD WI. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN
THE WRMFNT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS (KEEPING THE FNT
SOUTH OF WI). THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY PCPN AWAY FROM THE FCST
AREA THRU 00Z SAT. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE IN THE UPR 70S TO
LWR 80S...EXCEPT LWR TO MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI.

THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY
THE LOCATION OF THE WRMFNT AS THE MODELS CONT TO DIFFER WITH ITS
LOCATION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT MORNING...LEAVING A WARM
AND MUGGY SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SCENARIO WOULD HAVE
THIS TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH FRI NGT AND MOVE EAST...
THEREBY MISSING NE WI ALTOGETHER. JUST TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
TO GET INTO SPECIFICS...THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH KEEPS A CHC POP IN THE FCST FOR BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS WL CONT TO WARM AND DEW POINTS WL CONT TO RISE THIS WEEKEND
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE MEAN FLOW
TURNS NW DUE TO A BUILDING UPR RDG OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS
WOULD SEND A NRN STREAM SYSTEM SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MON
WITH ANOTHER CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT PCPN
CHCS HEADED INTO TUE AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO PUSH BACK INTO WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GREAT FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE A COUPLE HOURS OF GROUND
FOG IN THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MSOTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...../LONG TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......
AVIATION.......RDM


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