Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 291006
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary was stalled from central New England
through the Gulf of Maine. This front will slowly slip further
offshore today as low pressure tracks east along it. A secondary
cold front extended from northern Maine through the Saint Lawrence
valley. These boundaries will produce a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area today. The best chance for a steadier
and heavier rain will be across far southern New Hampshire and southwest
coastal Maine. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return for the
weekend with dry conditions Saturday and another chance for showers
on Sunday into Monday. Mainly dry weather with a gradual warming
trend is expected for Tuesday through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

605 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect current radar trends and the
10z mesonet in near term grids.

Prev Disc...
At 06z...a stalled frontal boundary extended from central New
England through the Gulf of Maine. A secondary cold front
extended from the rooftop of Maine through the Saint Lawrence
valley. GOES water vapor imagery showed a shortwave impulse racing
east-northeast across the mid atlantic states. For today...a weak
wave will ride northeast along the stalled boundary to our south
and east. The steadiest showers and embedded thunder with this
impulse will brush southern New Hampshire into adjacent southwest
Maine this morning. Otherwise...the secondary cold front just
north of the International border will gradually drop southeast
and provide a focus for scattered convection across the remainder
of the area today. Clouds and convection today should limit high
temperatures to a few degrees either side of 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure and drier air will build into the area from the
north tonight. The clear skies and light winds should allow areas
of stratus and fog to form overnight mainly across the interior
valleys. Lows tonight will range from the 50s across the
mountains to the lower and mid 60s across southern New Hampshire
and the Maine coastal plain. A mostly sunny Saturday as the
surface high center builds by to our north. Highs will be mainly
in the lower and mid 80s...with a few upper 70s across the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An broad-scale upper level trough will gradually move east Sunday
through Tuesday. Models differ on the progression of this trough
and the associated precipitation with the ECMWF faster than the
GFS. As a consequence, Sunday`s forecast is still a bit uncertain
with the ECMWF indicating a rainy day and the GFS holding the rain
off until Sunday night and Monday. the current forecast is a
compromise between these two solutions with precip reaching
southwestern areas in the afternoon...then spreading
northeastward. High temps Sunday and Monday should be in the
70s...but Sundays temps will depend on amount of sun before any
showers reach the area.

After the trough shifts east of region late Monday or Tuesday,
gradual ridging aloft will provide mainly dry weather across the
region with a warming trend through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...lcl ifr psb through 11z in valley
stratus and fog. Otw vfr with areas of mvfr in shra/tsra through
23z. Aft 23z...vfr with lcl ifr dvlpg in valley stratus and fog.
Aft 12z Sat...vfr throughout.

Long Term...MVFR conditions will spread from southwest to
northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in clouds and showers
and continue during the day Monday. Conditions will improve
Tuesday with mainly VFR conditions Tuesday through Friday, except
for early morning valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday/...Conditions to remain below SCA
thresholds through the period.

Long Term...Winds and seas expected to be below sca criteria.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
ES


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.