Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 041836
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL
IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR
WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE


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