Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 211359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER AND MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN
LATER THIS WEEK AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO FAR NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI




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