Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 271341
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 AM HST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN THE TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING BACK OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LVL LOW ABOUT 580 MILES
WNW OF KAUAI. THE CIRCULATION ON THE E SIDE OF THIS LOW IS PULLING
SOME OF THE SCATTERED LAYERED/HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE ITCZ INTO THE
ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NNE
OF THE ALOHA STATE AND KEEPING A MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY.

AT 3 AM HST...RADAR DATA WAS SHOWING SHOWERS JUST E/NE OF THE
ISLANDS...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN OVER MOST WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. 12Z
SOUNDING DATA AND MIMIC MOISTURE ANALYSES SHOW PWATS IN GENERAL OF
1.20 TO 1.45 INCHES AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND A DRYER
AIRMASS FURTHER UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...EXPECT TRADE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD
AREAS...THE KOOLAU RANGE IN OAHU...THE W MAUI MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

A BRIEF DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL FAR NW OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND
ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THU
THROUGH SAT. EXPECT POSSIBLE PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS.

FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST...THE SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS NNE OF THE
ALOHA STATE WITH THE TRADES GRADUALLY RETURN TO MODERATE LVLS SUN
INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING BACK A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AS SHOWERS COME IN...MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. PHTO AND PHLI WILL BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE THESE CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING EASTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE MARIE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EAST
FACING SHORES BY THURSDAY. ALSO...AN INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF OVER SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG
CURRENTS COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SWELLS. THE
SURF SHOULD BEGIN SUBSIDING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE COULD PRODUCE UNUSUAL
CONDITIONS IN EAST FACING CHANNELS AND HARBORS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...WROE








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