Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 281422
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL...DRY...AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER TH ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALTER THE
WEATHER SCENE AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED RAINFALL.
A STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARDS THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL...DRY...AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE ISLANDS AND
WILL LINGER AROUND TO ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT. EARLIER ASSESSMENT WITH
THE NEAR RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DUE TO TOO
MUCH WINDS. IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON
TAP FOR TONIGHT. AND WITH A LIGHT BREEZE BLOWING...ONE WILL STILL
FEEL RATHER COLD DUE TO THE WIND CHILL FACTOR.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION OR CAP NOTED AT BOTH LIH AND ITO SOUNDINGS AT 3
TO 4K FEET. PRECIPITABLE WATERS IS BETWEEN 0.60 AND 0.70. SO RATHER
STABLE AND DRY.

SHOWERS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING OVER WATERS AROUND
KAUAI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD TO OAHU THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH KAUAI FIRST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OAHU TUESDAY EVENING...MAUI
COUNTY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE BIG ISLAND AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WHERE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
2 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AT THE ONSET. THE EC CATCHES UP
HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT OVER OAHU THEN OVERTAKES THE GFS AND EXITS
THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SOLUTION ON THE OTHER
HAND STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHICH IS SOMETHING
DIFFERENT.
WE WILL PLAY IT WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE HUNG UP OVER THE
WINDWARD SECTION OF THE BIG ISLAND.

A WEAK HIGH FOLLOWS IN AFTER THE FRONT. THE WINDS ON NEW YEARS EVE
IS STILL ON TRACK IN BEING LIGHT...LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE THERE WILL
POOR DISPERSAL OF SMOKE FROM ESPECIALLY NEIGHBORHOODS WITH HEAVY
FIREWORK ACTIVITY.

THE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE EC BRINGS IN
SOME WET UNSETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OCCURING BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY. THE GRIDS CURRENTLY REFLECTS THE
EC SOLUTION BUT THIS IS ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

THE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE LOWERED FROM WARNING
LEVEL TO ADVISORY LEVEL. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
6 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS ATOP HALEAKALA SUMMIT ON THE BIG ISLAND IS RATHER
BREEZY...BLOWING IN THE ADVISORY RANGE OF 45 MPH. WE EXPECT THE
TREND LIKE THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS TODAY.




&&

.AVIATION...
A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TEMPO MOD TURB OVER AND TO THE S OF THE SUMMITS.



&&

.MARINE...
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...THE MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL IS RIDING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THERE COULD BE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM A SMALLER NORTH
SWELL...IN ADDITION FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS...IN MAKING THE
READING VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
START LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW AND LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BOOST THE SURF UP TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND HALEAKALA SUMMITS UNTIL 6 PM
HST TODAY.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA










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