Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 130155
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 PM HST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PRODUCE LEEWARD LAND AND SEA BREEZES ON OAHU
AND KAUAI. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS MODEST SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AS FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE CARRIED ACROSS THE STATE
EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITS ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI.
WITH THE RIDGE RELATIVELY CLOSE...LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...AND AN EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI...WHERE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL. A STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD IS MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWING THE INVERSION RANGING FROM
4000 TO 7500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER AN INCH. THERE
IS AN UNIMPRESSIVE AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI...THOUGH LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED ANYWHERE
IN THE STATE TODAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THIS STABLE AND RATHER DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL KEEP OAHU AND KAUAI SHADOWED FROM
THE MOISTURE...LIKELY MAINTAINING DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE LIKELY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY
ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING
THAT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TRADES CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. ISOL MVFR CIGS WITHIN
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BACKGROUND ESE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT AND MAY REQUIRE AN AIRMET
TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES A SLOW DECLINE...BUT
READINGS FROM BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 SUGGEST THAT SURF WILL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD INTO THE EVENING.
AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
NORTH FACING SHORES. THE NEXT ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS DUE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOME ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE DECLINING NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF AROUND 10 FT IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THESE ISLANDS INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR THE SCA
IS AREAS OF STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE SCA RUNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF WINDS HOLD
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE SCA COULD BE EXPANDED FOR SEAS ON
SUNDAY DUE TO ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL...AND WILL LIKELY BE POSTED
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS OF STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST TONIGHT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...FOSTER


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