Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 100708
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
908 PM HST WED JUL 9 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO...IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL AS THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE TYPICAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS HAD THE INVERSION BETWEEN 8500-9500 FT AND WEAKER THAN
12 HOURS PREVIOUS...WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE INCOMING CUMULUS CLOUDS
SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...BUT NOT MUCH MORE SO THAN NORMAL.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FRAGMENT WITH
AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVING AWAY...AND THE PORTION OF THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH DIGGING EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL PUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES...AND THIS WILL
HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER. EXPECT OVERALL SHOWER
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.

A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY...
WHEN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EX-FAUSTO
RIDING IN ON THE TRADES AND BOOSTING SHOWER COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. A RATHER WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED SUN-TUE.

AS FOR THE TRADES...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WILL WEAKEN
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW
DECLINE OF THE WINDS...BACK TO THE LOW END OF MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR IN WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS GENERATED BY PASSING TRADE SHRA...ESPECIALLY ON THE
BIG ISLAND. AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 7000 FEET DUE TO THE BREEZY
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT /NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL/ S SWELL IS STILL PROGGED
TO REACH THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GENERATED BY A
SIZABLE FETCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WAS E OF NEW ZEALAND THIS
PAST SUN-MON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE TERRAIN-ACCELERATED AREAS WILL SEE WINDS DROP
BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER FRI AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION............M BALLARD





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