Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PERIOD
TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELP-
ED TO KILL OFF THE ISO ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTN. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ATTM. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING WEST OVERHEAD THANKS TO THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE JUST AT THE USUAL CULPRITS CXO/LBX AND SHOULD BE IN
THE 4- 6SM RANGE. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
GLS/LBX TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOKS SLIM. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR GLS
12Z ON THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. PERHAPS THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL PROVIDE
BETTER POSSIBILITIES BUT CAP WAS STOUT TODAY. 45

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES. WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING
BUT CHANCES LOOK SLIM. 45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
ISOLATED SHOWERS FLARING UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN
THE LOWER 90S SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THESE WIDELY-
SCATTERED CELLS...OR THE EXISTENCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
..ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TODAY`S LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A GOOD SIGN THAT UPPER RIDGING IS BEGINNING
TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE UPON THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THIS
ELONGATED RIDGE WILL ALIGN ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE...ALONG WITH A FORECAST DRIER RESIDENT AIR
MASS...TO SUPPRESS THIS WEEKEND`S DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY
CLEAR AND NEAR CALM OVERNIGHTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION
OF SHALLOW RURAL FOG...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OR CLIMB TO
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF LATE JULY CLIMATE STANDARDS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE NWP FORECAST HAS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING
BACK TO THEIR RECENT 2 INCH PWAT VALUES DUE TO MORE HUMID AIR POOLING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN TEXAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AT AROUND MID-WEEK. N-NE TX CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL FORCE OUTFLOW/PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR HEATED
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BACKS OFF IN FAVOR OF BROAD MS VALLEY-CENTERED TROUGHING
..PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM TUESDAY ON
THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF PRIOR DAY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...OR A NEARLY-STATIONARY DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
LINGERING AROUND THE COAST...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED IN
REGENERATING DAILY CONVECTION. MINOR HEAT RELIEF WILL BE AFFORDED
IN THIS SITUATION OF RETURN RAINFALL AND THICKER OVERCAST...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE EXTREMA WILL BE REGULATED TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  96  77  95  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  92  81  92  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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