Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 041036
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
236 AM PST Sun Dec 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures through early this week. A colder airmass will then
push into the region by midweek. On Thursday and into Friday, a
low pressure system will bring a chance for some precipitation.
.DISCUSSION...Latest satellite images show high pressure ridging
along the West Coast. This pattern is favorable for at least some
slight warming and development of patchy valley fog for the next
couple of days. Fog is once again possible by daybreak but has
been a bit slower developing compared to last night. Also,
temperatures have generally been trending slightly higher tonight
compared to this time last night. This ridge of high pressure is
expected to continue through Tuesday before a trough of low
pressure moves over the Great Basin as an inside-slider. This
trough is mainly expected to bring in another shot of colder than
average temperatures by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
though likely similar to what we saw on Saturday. Quite a few
locations are expected to reach near freezing in the San Joaquin
Valley and just below in the coldest locations on Wednesday
morning. The airmass could be sufficiently dry; however, patchy
fog development cannot be ruled out.
We anticipate the next period of relatively active weather will be
on Thursday and into Friday as the models have come into better
agreement in bringing subtropical moisture a bit further south
than in previous model runs. This means there is a better chance
for precipitation over much of central California, although the
best chance for precipitation still remains over Fresno County
and northward. Also, the possibility of northwest flow behind the
upper low that would bring enough moisture for low clouds and
showers over the north and west facing slopes in the Kern County
mountain areas would likely occur by Friday evening into Saturday
Another low pressure system is forecast to arrive by next Sunday,
although models show quite a difference in terms of bringing
moisture southward into our forecast area from northern CA and the
Pacific NW. At this time, the GFS is very aggressive in terms of
precipitation and is moving it much further south compared to the
Euro model. So, am not real confident in terms of introducing POPs
for next Sunday right now. Overall, it looks to be pretty typical
weather with mainly seasonable temperatures for early December
with at least one decent system bringing precipitation to at least
the northern half of our district by late next week.
Areas of MVFR visibilities due to haze and fog across the San
Joaquin Valley, with mountain obscurations possible through 17Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected across the central
California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday December 4 2016... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.