Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 290947
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
247 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. THE NAM INDICATES SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST IN
FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES ARW AND
NMM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL FORM
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CREST AND BE VERY WEAK. REGARDLESS...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR EVEN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONSIDERING THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY YESTERDAY...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVITY TODAY IS MARGINAL AT BEST.

WARMING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE FOOTHILLS...AND THE DESERT TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES. THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST OF THE LARGER CITIES
SUCH AS FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD ARE FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT UNDER
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THE FORECAST INDICATES
BOTH CITIES WARMING TO 98 DEGREES.

A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. SUBTLE COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES. THE COOLING
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5 AND 8 DEGREES WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILL...AND
DESERT LOCATIONS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF JUNE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR
STABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY MAY 29 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND KERN COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906
KFAT 05-30      109:1910     64:1948     76:1984     45:1988
KFAT 05-31      110:1910     68:1971     72:1910     46:1923

KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
KBFL 05-30      108:1910     71:1906     74:1973     41:1906
KBFL 05-31      110:1910     70:1967     76:2002     44:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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