Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 222100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA...RESULTING IN A MINOR WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA CAUSED AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DOMINANT FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE DEEPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN ONSHORE
SURFACE FLOW...ADVECTING COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH ONLY MODEST
WARMING SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AND NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HITTING TRIPLE
DIGITS.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE FORECAST IS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING LIGHT QPF ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW OFF THE MEXICAN
PACIFIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MODEL TRAJECTORY IS WELL
OFFSHORE. THE MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...AND
EVEN THE 12Z GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE ECMWF OR THE
06Z GFS...HAS THE LOW NEAR 30N/130W AT 18Z FRIDAY...STILL WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE LOW ALONG 130W AT THAT
TIME...BUT FURTHER SOUTH AT 26N. GIVEN THE MODEL PROBLEMS WITH THIS
LOW...CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL TRAJECTORY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-22      108:1897     81:1960     75:1995     50:1899
KFAT 08-23      112:1891     79:1959     78:1913     51:1960
KFAT 08-24      112:1891     81:1930     80:1913     51:1973

KBFL 08-22      109:1919     82:1983     78:2009     44:1903
KBFL 08-23      110:1913     83:1960     80:1982     49:1915
KBFL 08-24      112:1913     82:1963     79:1967     45:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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