Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 050937
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
237 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LABOR DAY...AND THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PAC NW IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWFA THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN MERCED COUNTY
AND BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

06Z WRF IS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISES
IN HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES ACROSS OUR AREA AND PROVIDE FOR
A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TONIGHT AS P-GRADS
RELAX.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RH PROGS ARE
INDICATING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO SMOKE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-05      105:1984     73:1978     73:1991     47:1887
KFAT 09-06      106:1988     75:1965     76:1998     49:1887
KFAT 09-07      108:1904     77:1893     73:1998     50:1964

KBFL 09-05      109:1904     76:1978     75:1997     49:1916
KBFL 09-06      111:1904     78:1978     77:1975     45:1899
KBFL 09-07      110:1977     77:1978     78:1977     45:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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