Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 052029
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
129 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA AND A COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MARINE AIR HAS BEEN FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SINCE LAST NIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AROUND 40 MPH
THROUGH PACHECO PASS AS OF AROUND 7-8 AM PDT TODAY AND CONTINUE
AROUND 35 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST FT ORD PROFILER DATA
SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 2500 FT DEEP. EXPECT THE MARINE AIR
TO GRADUALLY COOL THE SJ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST OVER
SEQUOIA NF...NP AND KINGS CANYON NP. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...SO EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE FROM THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINING OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC AROUND LAT 36N / LON 129W OR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST. THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH CENTRAL CA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN AROUND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST...EXPECT A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. ALSO...EXPECT
SYNOPTIC COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
TREND DOWN AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER EACH DAY DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE AND MINOR
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS
DURING MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER-END
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE INLAND
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEG BELOW AVERAGE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...INCREASED CLOUD COVER
A BIT FOR THU AFTERNOON OVER THE SJ VALLEY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA INCLUDING THE SJ VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE
TEHACHAPI MTNS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER AT LEAST OVER THE SIERRA INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO NUDGE WESTWARD FROM THE
DESERT SW...TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM BACK UP...OR TOWARDS SIMILAR
VALUES TO THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH GENERALLY
KEEPS OUR REGION DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 19Z MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-05      112:1991     77:1909     77:1991     52:1948
KFAT 07-06      111:2007     83:1903     78:2007     50:1955
KFAT 07-07      111:1905     84:1891     76:2014     53:1903

KBFL 07-05      114:1931     80:1961     81:1970     53:1948
KBFL 07-06      116:1913     85:1955     81:2011     52:1915
KBFL 07-07      114:1905     85:1983     81:1968     46:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...SR

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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