Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 212224
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
324 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A COOL DOWN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXITING LOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA ZONES TODAY
BUT DRYING CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN STORE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO TODAY WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TROUGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY THURSDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...AS
IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SLIDES THE TROUGH BY FARTHER
T THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
TROUGH AND LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW PASSES. WHATEVER THE EXACT
DISPOSITION OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM...WE WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AS MUCH
AS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-21      102:1949     72:1945     74:1983     42:1968
KFAT 09-22      104:1949     67:1923     72:1999     41:1968
KFAT 09-23      105:1949     66:1904     70:2011     47:1968

KBFL 09-21      105:2003     74:1945     73:1983     37:1908
KBFL 09-22      105:2003     70:1923     74:1949     40:1908
KBFL 09-23      107:1943     71:1986     72:1949     31:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN/DCH
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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