Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 051731
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
131 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE TIP OF CAPE
FEAR THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
FARTHER INLAND. STORMS WERE FIRING ALONG THIS TROUGH WITH SOME
IMPRESSIVE CORES PRODUCING HAIL. LATEST MSAS DEWPOINT AND PRESSURE
ANALYSIS SHOW THIS TROUGH NICELY WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTH
AND WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
BETTER LIFT ALONG THIS TOUGH.

THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N OF THE
AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER LOWER DEWPOINT
AIR INLAND AND TO THE SW TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE NC COAST. DEWPOINT
TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST SC WERE IN THE 40S MOST PLACES ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE RICHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
THROUGH TODAY...THE POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH. THIS EXTREME COLD POOL ALOFT...DROPPING TO -25 C...WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY AS HEATING OCCURS AT THE
SFC...ALLOWING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SUCH COOL AIR ALOFT AND WBZ
HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 6500 FT...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. ALSO THE INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 7K FT...WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. OVERALL EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THIS SMALL HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. MAINTAINED
POPS AS IS FOR NOW WITH A LOWERING TREND FROM S TO N AFTER DARK.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS...UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AS CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM
OUT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING DOWN AROUND 4C. THE LOWER DEWPOINT
AIR WILL ALLOW ALREADY COOL TEMPS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT BUT WINDS
WILL NOT DROP OFF COMPLETELY AND THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. MOST PLACES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ON FRI. ALTHOUGH THE AIR ALOFT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD ON
FRI...AS THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THUS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHEN
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST.

THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OFFSHORE DURING SAT AS RIDGING
TO OUR W BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A WEAK PERTURBATION IN
NW FLOW KICK OFF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR A
MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEWPOINT...KEEPING SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI TO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES INTO MONDAY.
WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AS
ONE OF THE MODELS IS DEPICTING...OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE VERY NEAR WILMINGTON HAS A LARGE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE SWIRL OF WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING IT.
AS THIS LOW NUDGES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT ILM TO BECOME NW AND GUSTY. VERY COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL YIELD
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN AND NEAR SHOWERS WHERE 2500-3000 FOOT
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO
20 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS
POTENT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND DEPOSITS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE. ALSO...LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL LIFT N INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND STRENGTHEN...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR AND WILL VEER
AROUND FORM THE N-NE TO THE NW TO W NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. STRONGER
OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO THE COAST LOWER AND HIGHEST
SEAS WELL OFF SHORE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...W WINDS FRI WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO NW FRI
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD DRIVE SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT FRI...4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING TO PREVAIL WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION TO WESTERLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO AOB 10 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AOB 10 KT. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS.
ON MONDAY...SEAS BECOME STEADY AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...TRA


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