Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 262317
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
717 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers Tuesday followed
by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week.
Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into the
weekend with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Just a few stratus/stratocumulus clouds
trapped underneath the frontal inversion for the remainder of
the day. They have proved enough to keep temperatures just a bit
below climatology. Guidance has shown that this moisture will
erode for all but coastal areas early tonight. Then later
tonight into tomorrow morning the offshore boundary will weaken
if not wash out entirely. This may allow for some very shallow
moisture to creep back onshore but not to where fog seems likely
to form. Later Tuesday a cold front driven by a healthy upper
trough and vort max will approach from the northwest. The upper
system appears likely to be the main rain-maker Tuesday since
deep moisture recovery will not have time to occur. This may
mean that NC deserves some slightly higher POPs than SC but for
now prefer a broad-brush 30 area-wide since measurable rainfall
may not happen at all. &&

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Any lingering showers and thunderstorms
will be ending as the a shortwave exits to the northeast Tue
night. The shortwave drags a secondary cold front across the
area early Wed with a cooler and much drier air mass building in
for the middle of the week. Precipitable water values drop
under 0.75 inches Wed and a mid level subsidence inversion
develops as the 5h trough exits and weak 5h ridge starts to
build. High pressure northwest of the area early Wed shifts
east, passing north of the area Wed evening. The high ends up
off the coast as the period ends with weak return flow just
starting to develop. Subsidence and the abundance of dry air
will ensure the period is dry once any lingering activity Tue
evening comes to an end. Temperatures will run below climo
through the period with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in
the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the
return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high
pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will
increase from the mid to upper 80s Thursday to the upper 80s to
lower 90s for the remainder of the period. Lows will increase
from upper 60s to lower 70s thursday night to the low to mid 70s
for the remainder of the period. Thursday should be the last
dry day with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR through Tue morning. A reinforcing cold front
bolstered by a mid-level shortwave will bring isolated to
scattered showers Tue afternoon, exiting off the coast Tue eve.
There is a very low probability for brief MVFR visibility in
showers during this time. Wind speeds will be under 10 kt
through the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms
Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...With a frontal boundary offshore weakening if
not completely washing out overnight winds will show considerable
variability and speeds will remain minimal. Seas also quite minimal
with no appreciable swell energy to speak of. Just as a light
onshore flow seemingly starts getting established early Tuesday
afternoon another cold front pushes through turning winds to N or NE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Northerly flow will develop early in the
period as high pressure to the northwest builds in following the
passage of cold front. Gradient behind the front is not
particularly tight and speeds will remain under 15 kt Tue night.
Surface high is quick to move east Wed and Wed night. Northeast
flow Tue night into Wed shifts to easterly Wed evening and
eventually southeast by the end of the period. Speeds Wed and
Wed night will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be around 2 ft
through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...SE winds around 10 kt will become S to SW by
Thursday night and continue through Saturday though speeds could top
out around 15 kt by Saturday.  Seas around 2 feet are expected most
of the period with a few 3 footers possible Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...RJD



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