Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291555
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1155 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE
PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6
AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IS EDGING
LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE
700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST.
ONLY THE FINE TUNING OF T/TD/SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO HOURLY GRIDS...AND FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT.
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR
HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS
KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE
WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR
SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE
THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY
AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE
0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE
SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING
TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A
SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS
PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE
ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY
EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY
WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE
LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A
3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND
3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED
BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR


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