Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281054
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
654 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Two will bring increasing rain chances
through Tuesday. Some drier air may then filter in by Wednesday
and the increased sunshine will yield warmer afternoons. A cold
front may approach by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect from Little River Inlet to the South Santee River. The
topical depression still looks very unorganized from a satellite
perspective. There is yet no evidence of convection wrapping
around the center. The cluster of coldest cloud tops are well out
ahead of the center. The depression will be moving across the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream today and during this trek...some
organization could lead to at least modest strengthening.
Regardless of whether the tropical depression strengthens into TS
Bonnie or not...we are looking for precipitable water values to
surge to 1.75 to 2 inches...highest tonight as the depth of
moisture increases. Small showers were already splattered about
this morning. The high resolution models are showing more
organized and widespread convection moving onto the coast this
afternoon and spreading inland through tonight. Will show pops
ramping up to likely/categorical during this time. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours, causing
localized ponding.

The depression or weak tropical storm should be approaching the
South Carolina coast overnight...perhaps near the Charleston area.
The strongest winds will be mainly near the center.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...A slow moving weak tropical storm should
be moving onto the South Carolina coast Sunday. However, the
steering flow will be light and weakening. A broad upper level
trough approaching the east coast should help to steer the
tropical entity northward and this is indicated by the official
NHC track forecast as well as model consensus. Thus, a weak
tropical low may just crawl up along the upper South Carolina
coast Sunday night and Monday and perhaps be located near Cape
Fear Monday night. This will prolong the risk for significant
rainfall and this will be the main threat with this system. At
this time, we are forecasting rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3 inch
range and the entire forecast area is expected to get a good
soaking, although it certainly will not be raining the entire
time. Significant ponding of water in low-lying locations is
probable. At this time...the strongest onshore winds will occur
along the immediate coast of Georgetown and Horry counties Sun
afternoon and Sun night where weak tropical storm force winds are
possible...at least in gusts. Wind speeds will be considerably
lighter elsewhere. Clouds will dominate the sky through the
period, but even with that, highs will still be up in the lower
80s. Lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...TD 2 likely still meandering just
offshore on Tuesday. Not expecting much in the way of wind but
rain chances still quite high. Hard to say how far inland though
as the system may entrain dry air into its western semicircle.
With the exit of this system by Wednesday cloud cover should
decrease and we will see a warmer afternoon. An upper ridge will
build but not so strong as to effectively cap convection according
to most guidance. And with what may still be ample moisture
lingering the low end chance POPs from previous forecast seems OK.
Much of the same for Thursday with just a weak upper ridge and
poorly defined surface pressure pattern. Expect a warm afternoon
with isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms. Some more
appreciable rain chances may develop on Friday as a fairly deep
trough digs into the lower Mississippi valley and pushes a cold
front into the western Carolinas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12Z...The tropical system off the Georgia coast will continue
to track toward South Carolina. Northeast winds will become a bit
more easterly this afternoon and gusty along the coast. The models
continue to show a negatively tilted surface trough along the coast
later today. Low LFCs just off the coast this morning will drift
inland by late morning...with low based cu expected to develop.
Tropical like showers are expected this afternoon...with
intermittent low visibilities due to the water droplet size. Showers
are expected to continue through the evening and overnight hours.

Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR conditions in scattered to
numerous showers and isolated t-storms late Saturday night,
shifting inland for Sunday. Occasional MVFR with scattered
showers Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
the South Carolina waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for the North Carolina waters.

NE to E winds will veer to SE tonight. Winds speeds will be
increasing...strongest Sun/Sun night. Tropical storm force winds
are possible across the South Carolina waters...especially in
gusts near and shortly after daybreak Sun. Winds will be
increasing further during Sun. Further north, wind speeds will
increase to 15 to 20 kt through tonight. Seas will be building
through the period...up to 4 to 6 ft. An ESE swell will be on the
order of 8 to 9 seconds.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...The strongest winds Sun and Sun night
will be across the southern waters where weak tropical storm force
winds will be possible. Wind speeds will be considerably lighter
across the North Carolina waters. Wind speeds will be decreasing
throughout Mon and Mon night. SE winds Sun will become more south
Mon and then SW or W Mon night as a weak tropical low lifts
northward across the waters. Highest seas Sun and Sun eve across
the southern waters could reach 5 to 9 ft, but are not expected to
exceed 5 TO 6 ft across the North Carolina waters.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Tuesday`s wind direction is hard to pin
down with what`s left of TD2 just off the coast. Additionally
there could be considerable wind direction change as the center
moves by. The system itself will be very weak, further
complicating wind direction forecast. On the bright side there
will likely not be any advisory in effect. It bears mentioning
though that there may still be tropical showers around that could
significantly reduce visibility. With the system`s exit to the NE
on Wednesday there will be a very weak gradient left behind. Winds
again remain quite light and show considerable variation in
direction through the day. Seas will be settling into the 2 to 4
ft range for the most part.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056.
NC...None.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL


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