Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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399
FXUS62 KILM 250548
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will expand across the Carolinas bringing
uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1100 PM Sunday...Expect quiet conditions to continue
overnight as ridge of high pressure remains in place. Passing
clouds and elevated boundary layer winds will overall keep
widespread fog coverage at bay, but would not entirely rule out
short-lived patchy areas towards daybreak. Temperatures have
already lowered into the lower 80`s tonight, and they will
continue to lower into the mid 70`s inland and mid to upper 70`s
along the coast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...A subtle cooldown Monday will be followed by
even hotter temperatures beginning Tuesday as the expansive upper
ridge dominates the southern tier of the CONUS. Weak height falls
occur Monday, likely in response to a mid-level impulse moving
across Florida. While the mid-level flow becomes more SE than E, this
remains a drying direction, and PWATS are forecast to drop to around
1.25 inches. 850mb temps still up around 18C will support slightly
above climo temps, around 90 at the coast and low to mid 90s well
inland, but with slightly lower dewpoints as well, heat index values
will likely remain just below advisory criteria on Monday. While it
is rare to have a day in July around here without at least a few
diurnal tstms, the soundings suggest no activity on Monday, and will
keep POP silent. Return flow around Bermuda high will only allow
temps to fall Monday night into the mid 70s.

A hotter day forecast on Tuesday, and heat index values are again
expected to necessitate a heat advisory. The mid-level ridge builds
overhead once again and 850mb temps climb towards 20C. Persistent
moist return flow will allow dewpoint recovery even during the aftn,
so highs in the mid 90s combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s will cause heat index values to rise above 105 degrees. This
slightly more moist column will allow for at least a SCHC of tstms
along the piedmont trough and sea breeze boundary, before convection
wanes nocturnally and temps fall back in the mid and upper 70s by
Wed morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM Sunday...Little change required in the extended period
as the mid level pattern will feature slowly falling heights
across the east with a corresponding ridge out west. The relevant
surface features for the eastern Carolinas are the Piedmont trough
and Bermuda high pressure. The front associated with the trough
remains well to the north. The highest pops reside over the
weekend based on increasing PWs and the subtle trough. There is at
least a slight chance all days however and basically all periods.
No significant changes to the temperature forecast with basically
above normal readings across the board.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence in predominately VFR through the valid
TAF period. Included some MVFR fog for inland terminals as expecting
some patchy ground fog right around daybreak. Little to no
convection is expected tomorrow due to an increasing subsidence
inversion as ridge builds overhead in the mid to upper levels. South
southwest flow is forecast, mainly below 10 kts. Winds will back
during the night to SW and veer during the day due to influence of
sea breeze to S...close to 18Z at coastal terminals and 21z inland.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
Tuesday through Friday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise
expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 PM Sunday...Southwesterly winds will continue through
the overnight hours with sustained winds around 10 to 15 kts. Seas
of 2 to 3 ft are expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM
Sunday...Bermuda high remains into mid-week, driving consistent SW
winds across the waters. As temperatures warm however and the
ridging strengthens, wind speeds will increase from 10-15 kts
Monday, up to 15-20 kts late Tuesday. The near shore waters will
be influenced by a strong sea breeze each aftn as well, producing
a slight backing in wind direction to the south along with a
subtle increase in speed. Wave heights will remain consistently
around 2-3 ft, with an 8 sec SE swell and a 4-5 sec SW wind wave
comprising the spectrum.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Sunday...Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont trough
inland will maintain the south to southwest flow through the period.
Speeds will be of the standard summertime variety with 10-15 knots.
Not a real clear signal of much enhancement via nocturnal low level
jetting at least to this point. Significant seas remain typical of
the season and modest wind fields with 1-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ



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