Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 031159
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
759 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE MAIN FLOW. STILL EXPECT A
LULL LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT PLAYER IS ALREADY ENTERING
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS QUICK PROGRESSION MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE THREAT...DECREASING IT SOMEWHAT AS THE
ACTIVITY NEGATES SOME HEATING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NRN HALF. MOST PLACES
SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES UPON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN THE WRF. THE LATTER
HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS
A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD
KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS.
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING
STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP
SSWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL
FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD
TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND
SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF YET. CIGS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS EXPECTED
EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z AND AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS TO AT
PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING BUT CANT
DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER  OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW AND
COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE
WATERS AS EVEN 41013 IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED.
WILL LET THE HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN MUTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY
NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT
DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY FOUND
OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE MIDATLANTIC
REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC HEADLINES MAINLY
AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO TIGHTEN THE MOST.
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW APPEARS TO RELAX
SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK
IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR


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