Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 230141
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
841 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will bring a heavy rainfall threat this
evening. Monday and Tuesday will be breezy but mild in the wake
of this system. A cold front Thursday will bring slight rain
chances and usher in some more seasonable weather over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...Risk for severe weather has greatly
diminished for the remainder of the near term. Have updated
forecast accordingly. Risk for severe weather has not completely
ended however, so will continue to monitor until precip moves
offshore in the early morning hours. Previous discussion from
earlier this afternoon follows:

Primary focus is pending severe weather potential. The storms
on radar moving into NE SC are not the main players, but farther
upstream organizing from the FL panhandle into southern GA.
This activity will undergo/sustain squall like organization into
NE SC around 7 PM and across SE NC 10-11 PM, then off the coast
around or just after midnight. 50 KT winds at 925 MB may
readily be brought to the surface by a TSTM during squall
passage, enhanced by outflow winds, raising the odds of
straight-line damaging winds. 0-3 KM helicity fields migrate
across the area 00-04z. This will overlap with elevated boundary
layer instability, upping the prospects of isolated tornadoes
as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...No significant hazards this period but
showers can be expected Monday as column instability beneath a
cold pool aloft remains high. As the nearly stacked low pulls
away, low-level winds will shift to WNW with strong mid-level
drying into Tuesday. Partial sun later on Monday will be
followed by more sunshine minutes Tuesday with maximums in the
60s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Upper level ridge axis moves offshore on
Wednesday yielding deep layer SW to WSW flow. Expecting a mostly
sunny and unseasonably warm afternoon. Cold front comes through late
Wednesday night driven by very low amplitude and confluent upper
system keeping rain chances minimal. Cold air advection Thursday is
weak initially allowing for highs in the low to mid 60s early before
temperatures possibly start a non-diurnal decline. The remainder of
the period will bring cool and dry advection. The southern branch of
the upper jet splits off and gets hung up as a positively tilted
trough over the SWrn U.S. The northern branch will end up a broad
and positively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S.  Daytime highs
will be stuck below climatology in the cold advection regime whereas
breezy well-mixed nights will be seasonably cool.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...High confidence of at least OCNL MVFR/IFR cigs through
much of the next 12 hours or so as clusters of showers and
thunderstorms move into the area from the south and west.  There is
some potential for severe thunderstorms with wind gusts approaching
50 KT between 02z and 05z but relatively stable air over the area
attm may limit this potential.  After main bulk of showers
and storms move through, conditions should gradually improve such that
VFR will be the predominant condition after 12Z.  However, there is a
small chance for MVFR conditions in showers through the remainder of
the period though that potential is too small for inclusion in the
terminals attm.

Biggest question this forecast period is winds as we are expecting a
shift to the south tonight as a frontal boundary lifts northward.
The timing of this shift reflected in the TAFs is low but winds should
be S to SW by 12Z before becoming westerly late in the period.

Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR, except for possible
MVFR/IFR during Mon from clouds and reduced vsby from pcpn.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

SSE-SSW winds will ramp up tonight with gusts of up to 30 KT.
Seas will respond, building to 5-9 feet in the 0-20 NM waters.
Severe TSTMS overnight will be capable of producing localized
gusts up to 60 KT. It will be dangerous on the waters tonight
and navigation even on the ICW will be dangerous and highly
discouraged.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Rough conditions expected on the waters
this period as strong SW and W winds prevail so Advisory flags
will fly both Monday and much of Tuesday. Offshore wave heights
will be notably higher than inshore as winds tend more from the
west.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Coast-parallel southwesterly flow on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Though the winds will increase
to the 15 to 20kt range any headline or advisory-worthy seas
will remain outside of the 20nm forecast zone. With the approach
of the boundary Wed night into Thursday we may add some
gustiness and possibly introduce some 5 ft waves. A sharp late
morning veer to NW Thursday will give way to abating wind
speeds. Wave faces will steepen and a cautionary headline may be
appropriate for a narrow span of time. A broad and weakening
band of NW flow will be found across the eastern U.S on Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB



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