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000
FXUS63 KIWX 012056
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
356 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TODAY
AND INTENSIFY. THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES...EXPECT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THEN
INCREASING WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL...BUT
LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

LEAVING ONGOING WSW AND REMAINING AMOUNTS/SENSIBLE WX LARGELY IN
TACT. TREMENDOUS /UPWARDS OF 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL PWAT TAP
POIGNANTLY DEPICTED BY RUC14 I290K SFC WITH 50-60 KT ASCENDING
JETLET INTO FAR SRN IN ATTM. MESOBANDING TODAY HAS BEEN QUITE
MODULATED AND TRANSITORY IN NATURE...SO WHILE A FEW SPOTS IN
HEAVIEST BAND MAY EXCEED 15 INCHES...DONT ANTICIPATE A LARGE
NUMBER OF OUTLIERS. CONTRAST TO GRANT/BLACKFORD AND JAY
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY THEIR SRN HALVES...LESSER AMOUNTS OWING TO
WARM PROFILES/EARLIER MIXED PRECIP TO LIKELY YIELD AT/JUST BELOW
FINAL ACCUMS.

BOTH PRESENCE OF TROWAL THIS EVENING AND INCREASED STATIC
STABILITY PER RUC/NAM PROFILES SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE MOD-EXTREME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. STILL MOD/OCNL HEAVY SNOW ASSOCD WITH STORM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY
BECOMING PARALLEL TO SFCS FROM WEST TO EAST IN 06-12 UTC MON PD.
BY AND LARGE NRN IL TO ERN IA PRIMARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS
WITHIN 700-600MB LAYER TO CONGEAL WITH ANOTHER RAPIDLY NEWD MOVG
MAXIMA EMANATING FM CNTL IL...NOW INTO NERN IL/NWRN IN TO TRACK
THROUGH SWRN LWR MI. PRIMARY AXIS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN
ALIGNS WITHIN MID LEVEL COL FROM KLAN TO KBMI BY 04 UTC THEN SRN
TAIL DEFORMATION BAND QUICKLY SWEEPS CWA PROVIDING LAST POTNL FOR
ACCUM SNOWFALL...THOUGH WITH THINNING/DESCENDING DGZ APPROACHING
SFC...THE DEPLETION OF MID LVL MOISTURE WITH PASSAGE OF DRY
SLOT...AND THE RELAXING UVM PROFILES...SUGGESTS OVERALL RATES
ANTICIPATED TO BE INCREASINGLY MUTED IN W-E FASHION ACRS CWA IN
03-08 UTC TIMEFRAME. FINAL SHORT/NEAR TERM ISSUE DEALS WITH BLSN
THAT SHOULD INCREASE ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS SLR INCREASE TO NEAR 15
TO 1 IN LATTER PART OF EVENT. RAMPING/BACKING FROM NORTHEAST TO
EAST AS SFC LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN AT APPROX RATE OF
1MB/2HRS...TRACKING ALONG I70 CORRIDOR THEN TO WCNTL PA BY
DAYBREAK. QUASI-STEADY MAINTENANCE OF 10-12MB/3HR CROSS
ISALLOBARIC DIFFERENCES TO BRING WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...AND
WHILE SUB BLIZZARD CONDS EXPECTED...CERTAINLY BLSN TO SUPPLANT
+SN AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD/IMPACT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
CONCERN WITH E-W OPEN AREA/RURAL/COUNTY ROADS TO BE IMPACTED AS
SFC WINDS PROGRESSIVELY BACK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

AS ONE SYSTEM IS DEPARTING THE NEXT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (ALONG AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 30). FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AS OVERALL TIMING AND TRACK
SEEM TO BE REASONABLE WITH A SWATH OF AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF 30 AND DUSTING TO AT MOST AN INCH SOUTH. COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT ONLY BE A
GLANCING BLOW WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM THE 20S TUES/WEDS INTO THE
TEENS ON THURSDAY BEFORE HEADING BACK INTO THE 20S. LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE OF A MULTI BAND SETUP.
COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS BUT SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST ON FRI NGT INTO SAT
AND MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. CHC
POPS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES COMBINED WITH BR/FZFG TO SUPPORT
PRIMARILY LIFR CONDS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. GRADUALLY VERTICAL MOTION AND THERMAL PROFILES WILL LEND
TO LESSENED RATES WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS...WITH TRANSITION TO
BLSN AS PRIMARY VSBY REDUCING ELEMENT. FINALLY CONDS ABOVE
FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA BY DAYBREAK AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE EWD...WITH SFC LOW INTO CNTL PA BY 12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ081.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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