Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 032346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS IN STORE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING EXPANSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
ONTARIO THAT WILL HAVE OUR REGION IN A QUIET NW FLOW PATTERN IN THE
SHORT TERM. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING E/SE AND EXIT
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL WEDGE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH M50S/N80 RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOCUS INITIALLY WILL BE ON ENERGY SET TO EJECT OUT OF
THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE REGION AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. MODEL
CONSISTENCY NO BETTER THAN YESTERDAY RANGING FROM DECENT RAINFALL IN
SE AREAS TO BEING SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE GENERAL AREA.
INCREASE TO LIKELY IN ANY AREA FOR POPS WOULD BE PREMATURE EVEN AT
THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO GENERAL STATUS QUO IN PLACE
WEDS NGT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THIS NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH AS BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGHS REACH THE 70S AND LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION
SHOWN BY 12Z GFS WOULD OCCUR...COULD BE A BRIEF WARM UP PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SFC RIDGE OVER UPR GRTLKS TO ASSURE VFR MET CONDS ACRS NRN IN
THROUGH THE FCST PD...AND BYND. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SHALLOW/PTCHY
GF INVOF KFWA NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT DEGREE OF MIXOUT TODAY ALONG
WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP SFC VSBY UNAFFECTED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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