Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 242311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
711 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Clearing skies and cool conditions will prevail into Tuesday. Rain
chances will increase across the area Tuesday night, and
especially late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few
thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s. High
temperatures Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Tranquil period in store with high pressure taking hold of the
region into Wednesday. Mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights
will be in store with lows tonight dropping into the 30s and highs
Tuesday remaining on the cooler side with temepratures topping out
in the 50s (coolest northeast).

Frost formation may occur in many areas later tonight with light
winds and clear skies. No headlines will be issued with the end of
the growing season being declared today. Farmers that have some
fruit remaining may want to take precautions or complete harvest to
ensure limited impacts.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Active period taking shape with longwave trough and rapidly
deepening low set to track right across the center of the Great
Lakes. Leading edge of rain/showers with this feature will begin
to overspread NW areas Wednesday AM and then proceed east into
Weds evening. QPF amounts on the order of a third to one half inch
of rain appear to be in store as deep moisture will accompany the
system. Have kept slight chance of thunder in Weds afternoon and
evening given strong forcing and modest instability. Probably a
good thing instability is so limited as shear and helicity values
are rather high given triple point passing overhead. Next wave
will quickly arrive Friday into Saturday bringing yet another
chance for showers.

The active west to northwest flow will keep temperatures from
climbing much with highs generally remaining in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Aside from lingering lake effect clouds slowly dissipating, dry
profiles overnight allow for VFR conditions. High pressure also
allows for lighter winds. A warm front approaches Tuesday afternoon
with profiles becoming more moist, winds veering more easterly and
clouds increasing. Have held off on including precip even as the GFS
brings precip. This is as a result of the GFS ensemble, the NAM and
the EC holding precip back and profiles still looking fairly dry.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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