Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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261
FXUS63 KIWX 052330
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PESKY CLD CVR SLOW TO ERODE WITHIN LL THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING EWD
ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. UPSTREAM ADVT COMPONENT TO THE FLW WKNG
WITHIN LL RIDGE AXIS HWVR DRIER AIR IS ENTRAINING AND SUSPECT
W/SUNDOWN WRN/CNTRL AREAS WILL CLR OUT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SC
DECAYS. HWVR ANY CLRG XPCD TO BE SHRT LIVED AS MID CLDS ASSOCD/W
SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW DRIVING INTO NW IA WORKS EWD OVERNIGHT. THUS
WILL FOLLOW AN EVEN MOS GUIDANCE SPLIT FOR MINS.

BTR CHCS FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION...ESP FRI AM AND W/WK WAA
ALOFT XPC WE WILL BTR MAX TEMPS AS COMPARED TO TDA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MILD WX TO START THE PD AHD OF SEWD ADVG POTENT NRN STREAM SW
AMPLIFYING SEWD OUT OF CANADA. SOME PENCHANT EXITS FOR RA/SN SHRA
TO DVLP CNTRL/EAST SUN AFTN WITHIN EMERGING RTN FLW MSTR PLUME YET
WILL HOLD W/IMPLIED SLWR GRIDDED TIMING FVRG SUN NIGHT. THEREAFTER
CENTROID OF VIGOROUS H7-5 CIRC TO SETTLE OVERTOP THE AREA ON MON
AS FVRBLY ALIGNED CROSS LK MI LL FLW DVLPS WITHIN INCREASING LL
THERMAL TROUGHING. THIS WILL YIELD A PRONOUNCED LK ENHANCED SNOW
EVENT STARTING MON NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT IF NOT WED.
HWVR PLACEMENT QN/S REMAIN COINCIDING W/AS YET STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD ALOFT ESP W/SWD EXTENT OF PSBL PHASING OF ARCTIC STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVR HUDSON BAY. REGARDLESS 00-12Z TRENDS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT AND DEEMED MORE CORRECT IN LIGHT OF XPCD ADDNL
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLW OF WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED TDA.

BEST OVERLAP OF SYS ASSOCD MID LVL MSTR...LK MSTR FLUX AND FLW
TRAJECTORIES FVRS HIGHEST POPS WEST HALF MON NIGHT AND NORTH HALF
TUE/TUE NIGHT. CROSS OVERLAP OF POTENTIAL SNOW BANDS PORTENTS SOME
FORM OF HIGHLITES WILL BE NEEDED IN COMING DAYS. OTRWS WK CLIPPER TO
FOLLOW ON THU AND REACTIVATE LK EFFECT THU NIGHT-FRI BFR THE FLW
BACKS ARND AHD OF NXT MORE POTENT LOOKING DISTURBANCE NXT WEEKEND.

WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MON WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL THEATE RIDGING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH SFC TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. BACK EDGE OF MVFR CONDITIONS/FLURRIES SHOULD CLEAR KSBN
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS KFWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SOME FLURRIES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 02Z. WEAK ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS SFC TROUGH WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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