839
FXUS62 KJAX 160448
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1248 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak low pressure center will continue to move westward across the
Florida Panhandle through tonight, which will continue a moist
south to southeast flow across NE FL/SE GA. This will allow for
the East Coast sea breeze to push inland to the US 301 corridor,
then interact with the lingering tropical moisture in place across
NE FL where PWATs will remain above 2 inches and expect numerous
to widespread showers and storms again this afternoon/evening,
with heavy rainfall the main threat, although a few isolated
strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will still
be possible, along with some weak rotation possible in some of the
more intense storms since area will remain on the East side of the
departing low pressure system. Slightly lesser convection expect
along the NE FL coastal areas and across SE GA, where scattered
showers and storms are expected. Max temps should rebound into the
lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s/near 90F along the
Atlantic Coast, and dew points temps into the mid/upper 70s will
still push Heat indices to 100-105F, but still below heat advisory
criteria. Convection will linger over inland areas along the I-75
corridor through the evening hours with heavy rainfall threat
until midnight, then just a few isolated showers possible during
the overnight hours in the humid airmass. Low temps in the
lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure will build to the east Thursday, with ridge extending
across forecast area. The ridge will move toward the southeast
Friday, as a trough develops over the southeastern US. A flow from
the south/southwest will provide moisture for daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The region will be between high pressure to the southeast, and the
trough across the southeastern US over the weekend into early next
week. A moist flow from the southwest will keep chances for mainly
diurnal precipitation in the forecast.

An elongated area of low pressure may develop along the southeastern
US Tuesday. The development of this low will increase precipitation
chances.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

South to Southeast winds will continue at 5-10 knots this morning,
and with the moist airmass will need to keep at least VCSH at the
regional terminals with rainfall chances in the 10-20% range
through the morning hours, along with TEMPO MVFR CIGS at times.
Diurnal heating today will allow for scattered showers to develop
for coastal terminals later this morning and will need to keep
PROB30 groups at CRG/JAX for TSRA during the 16-20Z time frame,
while much higher rainfall chances at VQQ/GNV as the East Coast
sea breeze pushes slowly inland triggers numerous TSRA and expect
to need TEMPO groups from the 18-22Z range at VQQ and 20-24Z range
for GNV. Convection will fade at coastal TAF sites towards the end
of the TAF period, but will continue to be possible at GNV until
the 04-06Z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward
across the Florida Panhandle today and tonight with south to
southeast winds continuing at Caution levels. Atlantic high
pressure will extend across the southeast states through Thursday.
The high will shift south and extend across south Florida late
Friday into the weekend as a surface front lingers across Georgia.

Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected
today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep
surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  95  74 /  30  20  40  10
SSI  87  79  90  79 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  92  76  94  76 /  40  30  50  10
SGJ  90  76  91  76 /  50  20  60  10
GNV  92  73  94  74 /  70  50  70  10
OCF  91  73  92  75 /  80  60  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$