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000
FXUS62 KJAX 271323
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
923 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...High Coverage of Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon
across northeast Florida and north central Florida...

...Locally Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds and Frequent Lightning with
Stronger Storms expected, mainly south of I-10 this afternoon...


.UPDATE...A frontal feature extends roughly from Ponte Vedra to
Alachua to Cross City this morning. This feature is expected to
drift slowly southward today and will encroach north central
Florida by afternoon. Moisture remains elevated across northeast
and north central Florida with precipitable water values ranging
from 1.9 inches to 2.2 inches with a slightly drier gradient over
SE GA with 1.4 PWAT values near the Altamaha River Basin to 2.1
inches near the the mouth of the St. Mary`s River. Unstable
conditions aloft will support another round of numerous showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon, with rain chances increasing
substantially, particularly over northeast Florida and north
central Florida. The heaviest rain today will occur mainly south
of I-10 into our southern tier zones across north central Florida.

Have bumped up our precipitation chances across northeast and north
central Florida into likely to categorical POPS. General rainfall
will be 1" to 2" with some local pockets of 3" to 5" is possible,
especially along and south of a line from Guana River Wildlife to
Green Cove Springs to Starke to Alachua to Trenton southward into
north central Florida. The further one goes northward into
southeast GA, rain chances are stratified with 60 percent over
Camden County to 20 percent over NW GA zones close to the Altamaha
River Basin somewhat drier air and subsidence working into the
region.

Impacts...
The main convective hazard today will remain locally heavy,
potentially flooding rainfall especially across NE Florida. Recent
localized daily rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are again
possible. There is also an increased chance of isolated strong to
severe storms today due to cooler temperatures aloft (-8C at 5h)
with the approach of the deepening upper level eastern CONUS
trough. Strong to severe storms will be capable of wet downburst
winds of 60 mph and potentially some small hail.

Temperatures...
Temperatures will range in the 80s today under mostly to partly
cloudy skies. In breaks of sun, temperatures could rise into the
low 90s, especially across SE GA where drier air will gradually
advect.


.AVIATION... Winds will transition to NNE to E through the day
today as a frontal boundary shifts farther south over central
Florida. Light showers possible at the terminals early this
morning with cold front across northeast Florida. Residual
scattered stratus layer will lift with periods of improvement to
VFR as the morning progresses. Shower and tstms will increase in
coverage this afternoon and evening with PROB30 groups advertised
at all NE Florida terminals with drier air moving in from the
north decreases rainfall potential for KSSI.

&&

.MARINE...light and variable winds generally 10 kts or less this
morning with a weak pressure pattern in place between broad low
pressure offshore of SC and a meandering front across north-
central Florida. Winds will become NE to E into the afternoon and
evening as the front shifts farther south and high pressure builds
east across the OH River Valley. ENE winds will increase near 15
kts Wed aftn then flow veers more ESE Thu into Fri as high
pressure builds offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. Winds veer
more to the south into the weekend as the high builds east of the
Florida peninsula. Daily thunderstorms are expected.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and moderate Wed due to increased
onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  70  89  71 /  30  20  20  10
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  30  10  30
JAX  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  20  20
SGJ  85  73  85  75 /  70  50  30  30
GNV  88  71  88  72 /  90  60  50  10
OCF  88  72  88  73 /  80  60  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Cordero/Kennedy/Corless