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000
FXUS62 KJAX 240813
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEAN LAYER RIDGE HAS PUSHED WWD ACRS THE FL PENINSULA PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS INTO
N/CENTRAL GA BY THIS AFTN. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
OVER POPS AND TEMPS TODAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF OUR AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD TODAY AND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTN...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15G20 MPH. THE HOT SWLY FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PINNED. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW CLIMO IN THE 20-30%
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER DEVELOPING AND
BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE GULF COAST SBRZ
APPROACHES THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE NRN PORTION THIS EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE PUSHING OFFSHORE AND WEAKENING. LOWS TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH...STALLING JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. TEMPS ALOFT COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA AND SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE SW FLOW WILL WEAKEN JUST
ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO COME IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC AND COLLIDE WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND THUS STORMS MAY BE
ESPECIALLY STRONG AND LINGER THERE LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY EVE.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 90S INLAND AND EVEN LOWER 90S AT THE
COAST WITH HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...

SAT/SUN...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA WHILE THE FRONT TO THE NORTH WASHES OUT AND THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZES...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
MERGE NEAR I-95 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MON-WED...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NE FL
ON TUE BEFORE WASHING OUT. THERE WILL BE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE W TO SW
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION MON/TUE. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO INLAND SE GA BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WED AND HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO ISOLATED THERE BUT
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS NE FL WITH FRONT STALLED OUT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF COOLING WITH FRONT WITH TEMPS ONLY COOLING TO NEAR CLIMO
BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED ALTHOUGH VQQ MAY BRIEFLY HAVE MVFR VSBY
AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY INCREASE
SPEEDS BRIEFLY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS TO 15-20 KTS. IF THESE CONDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE PROLONGED...A SCEC HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED.

RIP CURRENTS: CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE MODERATE DUE TO INCOMING
ESE SWELLS AND RECENT REPORTS OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  94  72 /  30  30  50  30
SSI  93  77  91  77 /  30  30  50  40
JAX  95  74  94  73 /  20  30  50  40
SGJ  92  76  90  75 /  30  30  50  40
GNV  94  73  93  72 /  30  20  50  40
OCF  94  73  93  74 /  30  20  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON