Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 230114
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
910 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...NORTHEASTERLY SURGE CONTINUES WESTWARD...HAVING
RECENTLY PASSED WAYCROSS GA AND GAINESVILLE FL. EXPECT NORTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...KEEPING LOW TEMPS UP IN THE
LOWER 70S COAST...WITH MID-UPR 60S INLAND NE FL AND 60-65 INLAND
SE GA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. KEPT FORECAST DRY TONIGHT THOUGH
WILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SHOWERS TO APPROACH COAST FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO PALM COAST TOWARD DAWN AND AFFECT EASTERN PART OF ST.
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES EARLY SAT...AS INDICATED BY HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO OCNL BKN STRATOCU HAS DROPPED DOWN TO ABOUT THE
1500 TO 3000 FT LEVEL AND FOR MOST PART VFR TONIGHT. BUT...BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SOME MODEL PROGS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
COASTAL TAFS WILL OCCASIONALLY HAVE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT (WITH BETTER
CHANCE AFTER 06Z) BUT LAV GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO SUPPORTIVE OF IT AND
DURATION STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ENE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
AM...INCREASING FROM ENE NEAR 15G22KT BY MID AM SATURDAY. SOME ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR CRG AND SGJ BUT
TOO SOON TO BEGIN INCLUDING IN TAFS AND IMPACT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC FOR MARINE WATERS TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 15-20KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
HINT THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FOR OFFSHORE COMPONENT...20-60 NM
OFFSHORE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WILL DEFER ANY ADVISORY
TO NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF NEXT MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS
POTENTIAL.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY TO BECOME MODERATE TO HIGH OVER
THE WEEKEND IN THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. BREAKERS WILL BUILD INTO
THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  86  67  87 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  70  82  71  83 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  66  84  68  86 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  72  83  74  84 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  67  89  69  90 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY/GUILLET



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