Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.