Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 050751
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE


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