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000
FXUS62 KJAX 120850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

...CLEARING SKIES WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED FROM ILLINOIS INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST TRACKS NE. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL MOVE TO THE SE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHARPENING GRADIENT AS THE
STRONG HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN RESULTS IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND COOLER TEMPS AREA WIDE. MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 IN SE GA
AND MID 60S NE FL WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH
LOWS 35 TO 40 ACROSS THE REST OF THE INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 40S
ALONG THE NE FL COAST. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES WELL INLAND. WITH THE HIGH
SETTLING TO THE NORTH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED JUST
ENOUGH WHICH WILL HELP PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WINDS VEER
FROM THE NE TO SE FRI NIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEASONABLE MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50 INLAND AND 50S
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SAT/SUN...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND RAINFALL BY A FEW HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MAIN RAINFALL EVENT
FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT WILL PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
SE GA AND AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH ACROSS NE FL. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH BEST CHANCES WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE GOMEX...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE ZFP/GRIDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO SURGE WELL INTO
THE 70S/LOWER 80S BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN BREAKS OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/60S ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HELD ONTO ONE MORE
PACKAGE WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 55-75% RANGE BUT MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED TO CATEGORICAL IS MODELS CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY TIMING FOR
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN RAINFALL EVENT. WHILE RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY IN SOME LOCATIONS...MOST WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO KEEP ANY
DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING DURING THE COOL SEASON. FOR NOW
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S BUT WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS.

MON-THU...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE 35-40 DEG RANGE WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST AT THE WORST...BUT INLAND FREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR BROKEN-OVERCAST CIGS AT NE FL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY ERODE IN
THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR/SKC BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THRU MID
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE OFFSHORE THRU LATE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURGE PRODUCES SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS
VEER AND DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO
POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND ELEVATED SEAS.

.FIRE WX...
COOL/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MIN RH`S IN
THE 20-30% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE FL/SE GA WITH 4-6
HR DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH`S. RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE
SATISFIED AS NORTH WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES ACROSS SE GA WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8% AND ERC VALUES ACROSS NE FL
WILL REMAIN AT 25 UNITS OR LESS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  33  63  49 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  61  40  61  55 /  10   0  10  10
JAX  64  38  66  52 /  10   0  10  10
SGJ  64  47  67  57 /  10   0  10  10
GNV  66  37  70  52 /  10   0  10  10
OCF  68  41  72  55 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PP/JH