Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 291443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Changes to Forecast -- Removed thunder for this afternoon.  Tweaked
qpf, sky cover, wind, and temperature elements for this afternoon.

Current Situation and Analysis -- Radiosonde data from the Key West
morning radiosonde balloon indicated a moderately moist and unstable
atmosphere with weak convective inhibition.  However, dry layers
were present in the lower and middle troposphere with a significant
dry layer in the 850-700mb layer.  The surface-10000 feet layer mean
wind velocity was 170/06 knots, although light easterlies were
present generally below 5000 feet elevation, with light westerlies
above.  Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities
were rising slowly through the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperature
near 70F.  Surface winds were light and variable across most of the
service area.

Prognostic Overview -- Late-morning visible satellite images were
showing some cumulus clouds developing over the warming island
boundary layer.  However, we think developing updrafts will be
hampered by significant dry layers at low altitudes.  Although a
few showers certainly are possible, the formation of any deep
cumulus convection should be a stretch.  Therefore, we removed
thunder chances for this afternoon, but kept them in for this
evening, when incoming outflow from mainland South Florida may
augment any existing mesoscale convergence zones/updrafts around
the Florida Keys.

No watches, warnings, advisories, or headlines.  A weak pressure
pattern will persist across Florida Keys coastal waters this
afternoon through Monday night.  Thereafter, a ridge of high
pressure will build across the Florida peninsula Tuesday through
Thursday night, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes.

VFR and light and VRB breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH

May 29 -- On this date in Key West climate history, in 1926, the
daily record low temperature of 68 degrees was recorded.
Temperature records have been kept since 1872.




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