Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 030703
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
303 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT AREAS
ARE FAVORING THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND
GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
ARE GENTLE TO BRIEFLY MODERATE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE 75 AT ALL REPORTING STATIONS.

A LATITUDINAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND TO WESTERN CUBA...ENCOMPASSING A MEANDERING LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN EASTERN TENN. AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONT
IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...AND
A WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
VEERED PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUR MOISTURE UP TO 5000
FEET...WHICH DIMINISHED FOR A WHILE PER OUR LOCAL SOUNDING YESTERDAY
EVENING. DESPITE SHOWERS NOT AGRESSIVELY FILLING IN YET PER KBYX
RADAR...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES
IN THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING THE LOCAL AIRMASS UNSTABLE. A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD TODAY. WILL KEEP THE RANGE AT
LIKELY AS OPPOSED TO THE AGGRESSIVELY CATEGORICAL NUMBERS
CONTINUOUSLY COMING FROM THE GFS. THAT WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF NUMBERS.

THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTEND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KEYS...WE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BUMPING OUR LOCAL RAIN CHANCES. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE MID PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AT A MIDDLE-OF- THE
ROAD CHANCE...AND THEN TAPER THEM BACK TO A LOWER CHANCE FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DEFINED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...THE LATEST GFS HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NAMELY...KEEPING A TROUGH STRETCHED NEAR THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS AND REACHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL A MORE DEFINED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL CRAFT
ARE EXPECTED DURING ANY PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT EPISODES OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. A DEEP
LATITUDINAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN CUBA. WITH THIS TROUGH THERE IS VERY GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT AND GOOD SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 12K FEET.
THESE INGREDIENTS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 12Z. WILL KEEP
AMPLE CLOUD COVER...BUT LIMIT MVFR / IFR CEILINGS TO MAINLY BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TWEAKING THE TIMING AS THE
SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1932...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
DIPPED TO 65 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR KEY WEST ON JUNE 3RD. THIS RECORD STANDS 83 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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