Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KKEY 231848
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Currently - Weak ridging across the Florida Peninsula is keeping
light east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and
surrounding waters. Despite ample instability and lack of a cap,
convective activity has been slow to get going. This is likely due to
the combination of weak and still unfavorable low level flow. A mid
and upper level low continues to move southwestward into South
Florida, but weak ridging holds through the lowermost levels. Surface
conditions are quite warm in the upper 80s with dew points a muggy
Forecast - Weak ridging will hold across the Florida Peninsula over
the next day or two, keeping winds light and mostly east to
southeast. The mid through upper level cut off low will continue to
migrate west southwestward then westward across the southern portion
of the peninsula and out into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Weak
steering flow will make for quite uncertain cloud line development
and outflow boundary trajectory this evening through tomorrow
evening. This along with the seasonably unstable conditions and rich
deep layered moisture justifies holding onto high chance pops. Expect
near normal highs and lows with continued humid conditions.
As the upper level low moves off away from the Florida Keys,
stronger deep layered ridging will build westward across Florida.
Winds are expected to strengthen moderately over the first couple
days of the upcoming work week. Forecast soundings indicate
significant deep layered drying and stable layers developing around
850 mb. This along with a gentle east to southeast steering flow
justifies holding a slight chance of pops in the Monday night and
Tuesday time frame. Thereafter, instability and lack of inhibition
returns while deep layered ridging holds across Florida. Will
advertise near normal conditions through the mid and long range.
Light mostly east to southeast winds will persist across Florida Keys
waters due to a weak ridge across the Florida Peninsula. Surface
winds are expected to trend upwards over the first half of the
upcoming week as a stronger deep layered ridge builds across Florida.
While advisories are not anticipated, small craft cautions may be
required for the Florida Straits for a period or two on the long end
of the marine forecast.
Towering cumulus and some cumulonimbus have been building from near
Marathon to the northern vicinity of Key West, as well as in Gulf
waters between Key West and Naples. Conditions have remained VFR
although further development is expected to result in vicinity
showers and thunder at Key West and Marathon during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Any storms will have very slow movement
if any, and direct impacts from MVFR or IFR visibilities will depend
strongly on the close proximity of any lingering cloud boundaries.
Surface winds at or below 8 knots outside of any showers and storms
are expected to oscillate between southeast and east-northeast
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 78 88 78 89 / 50 50 50 30
Marathon 78 91 78 92 / 50 50 50 30
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