Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND ADDED THUNDER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REDUCED AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
FOR THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- DESPITE MODERATE-FRESH BREEZES
PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY...AIR TEMPERATURES JUMPED INTO THE MID
80S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE UP OVER 70F. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL. BREEZES
FINALLY HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- ONE MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN WITH THE ONSET OF A WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION MID-WEEK
OF A STRONGER/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...SO WE HAVE
INDICATED A MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER PERIOD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...HIGHER POPS...SKY COVER...THUNDER.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
HAWK CHANNEL...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN...WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHTER BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY... WITH BREEZES
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHENING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 02/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  78  86 / -  -  10 10
MARATHON  78  88  78  88 / -  -  10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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