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000
FXUS62 KKEY 101245
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
845 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
AS OF 800 AM DEPICT A SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER PATTERN
THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING/TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHEREAS A MID AND UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN OLD MEXICO CONTINUES TO PINCH OFF
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. DOWNSTREAM OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS REMAIN BENEATH THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF DEEP
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS
OF 800 AM DETAIL A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH COOL 1020-1022 MB SURFACE
RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHERN SMOKIES TO EAST TEXAS. CLOSER TO
THE KEYS...A NEAR 1020 MB MESOSCALE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING IS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS PRIOR...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 5 KFT WITHIN A
DRY LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE AND PWAT AT ABOUT .89 INCHES...AND A 5
DEGREE C INVERSION FROM 880 TO 820 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLAND ARE
AROUND 70 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
FAVORING NORTH THRU NORTHEAST GIVEN A WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF THE
PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM...COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE BY LATE
MORNING GIVEN HIGHER SUN ANGLE...WEAK MIXING...AND ABUNDANT DRIER
AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH ABOUT 2
DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL STILL BE COMFORTABLE REPRESENTED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S. ONLY POSSIBLE MINOR ADJUSTMENT MIGHT BE LATE THIS MORNING
TO EITHER REMOVE PARTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS MORNING OR KEEP IT IN THE
GRIDS AND REPLACE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. CIGS
AROUND 025-030 ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL 15Z... DUE TO COOLER
AIRMASS FROM THE MAINLAND. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS... THEN
MAINLY EASTERLY AFTER 15Z.

&&

ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1941...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 54 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 10TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 73 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/GRIDS..........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FJ
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR............CR

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