Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 292024
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
324 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS...AS AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT MAINLAND SHADOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES. A CONVERGENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET UP OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
REMAINED MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVES DOUBT TO HOW QUICKLY A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CURRENTLY MIGRATING SOUTH AS PREVIOUS GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS WERE
INDICATING. REGARDLESS OF THE WIND SPEEDS...WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH HAS WARMED
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS ISLAND STATIONS.

.FORECAST...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ISLAND
CHAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSIT THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL APPROACHTHE
KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIROMNENT WILL BE
SUBSIDENT IN NATURE. THE GRADAULLY DECAYING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE INDICATED TO CROSS THE KEYS AGAIN
LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THRUSDAY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE MONDAY FRONT. TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FRONT WILL
ALSO BE IN DOUBT...BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE IT SHOULD BE THE MOST
INTENSE OF THE THREE. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO THE LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECASTS FOR THE TONIGHT
TIME PERIOD. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENLY INDICATED A SWIFTLY APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
FORECAST IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER NORTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF
THE ENDING POSITION OF THIS HIGH BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT EASTERLY
WINDS TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL BE RETAINED. ADDITIONAL BREIF MAINLAND SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY. THEREAFTER...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN
FOR FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE KEYS ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY
WORDING IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF
SPELLS OF VFR CEILINGS BASED AROUND 4500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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