Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 071907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
307 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO AN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN DESPITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS AT
THE SURFACE. THROUGH TODAY...STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RELEGATED TO THE OUTER GULF WATERS...WHILE ONLY A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS COULD FORM ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THE STABLE AND DRY SAL THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING DOWN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER MID
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CREEP UP. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ON THE HORIZON...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHT. EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A MID LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HELP KEEP THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT WITH MORE INSTABILITY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. A CAUTION MAY BE PERIODICALLY REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE
FLORIDA STRAITS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...OVER
THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...RESULTING IN SLACKENING FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BACK FROM 120 DEGREES AFTER 00Z TO 090 DEGREES AOA 8 TO 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  83  92 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  83  93  83  93 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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