Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 050154
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
854 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A LOOK AT THE KEY WEST RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SPRING MIGRATION MAY BE
STARTING DUE TO THE ECHOES MOVING NORTH OFF THE CUBAN COAST. LOOKING
AT THE BROADER SATELLITE VIEW WE FIND A TROUGH FROM MAINE TO THE
TEXAS COAST. SOUTH OF THE GEORGIA / FLORIDA BORDER...WE HAVE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS.
THE AXIS OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOLLOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES AND OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT CLOSES IN ON CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES FURTHER OUT TO
SEA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THEREFORE THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES AT OR JUST ABOVE 10
KNOTS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1889...1.06 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
MARCH 4 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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