Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 111140
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

AT 08Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. DEWPOINTS
RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPPER FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTER IN SWRN
KS. A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA
CANADA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING ZONAL.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTH.
HIGHS TODAY WILL HEAT INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS SWRN NEBR WITH
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. WENT BELOW RAW MET/MAV GUIDANCE USING A BC
BLEND. THIS LOWERED HIGHS THE MOST ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY ABOUT 5
DEGREES. REGARDING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KTS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. SBCAPES WILL REACH 2500-3000 J/KG. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF A GRANT THROUGH BRADY LINE. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE LACKING FOR STORMS...WITH MUTICELLULAR STORMS FAVORED
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN
STORMS OVERNIGHT. STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH...THEREFORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALSO GIVE THAT PWAT
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 1.5-1.75 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. STRONG COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE WESTERN RIDGE WILL
HOLD ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...IN
BETWEEN...ZONAL TO NW FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. MONSOON FROM ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AIDE IN
SUPPLYING MOISTURE...WITH ANY WAVE TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLD TO
SCT STORMS.

A SECOND...AND STRONGER COLD FRONT...WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE
WORK WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL SEE NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE MID
70S...WHILE SW NEB WILL WARM TO AROUND 80S. TUESDAY WILL SEE EVEN
COOLER TEMPS. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING START AROUND 50...WITH HIGHS
ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE TO THE EAST FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SLOWLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S.

STORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK CONFINED TO THE FAR SW AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT RANGE AND DRIFTS
SE. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AREAS NEAR IML WILL NOT GET CLIPPED TO
GO COMPLETELY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLBF TERMINAL UNTIL 13Z...THEN
VFR WITH A RETURN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. INCLUDED AS
A PROB30 UNTIL 06Z...WITH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. AT KVTN...HAVE PREVAILING -TSRA AFTER 23Z ALONG WITH A
TEMPO 01Z- 05Z IN 3SM TSRA BKN060. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DID NOT INCLUDED ATTM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








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