Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 090909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Forecast challenge will be weak mid level disturbance moving through
western Nebraska today. The disturbance extends from the Great Basin
though Wyoming as seen in WV imagery early this morning. Cold 1040mb
surface high across the Dakotas extending into east Texas. Southerly
flow over western Nebraska on the backside of the surface high.
These winds and increasing cloud cover from the west are keeping the
temperatures over western Nebraska from tanking. Fast west northwest
flow aloft and nose of 250mb jet 130+ over nosing into northwest
Nebraska this morning and then moving east along the border with
South Dakota through early Saturday morning. Upglide and southerly
flow on the backside of the surface high and the added lift from the
disturbance and added support of the upper jet should be enough lift
to squeeze out some flurries light snow over the north along the
border this morning and then as stronger disturbance after midnight
light snow to expand south into the western Nebraska Sandhills. snow
ratios 14 to 16 to 1 could see a couple of tenths of snow.

Highs today with cloud cover mostly in the 20s and lows tonight
milder in the teens with single digits over the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

12z Saturday and beyond.  Upglide centered along the 285-295K
surfaces will work in conjunction with weak divergence aloft and
condensation pressure deficits of 1mb or less to promote
the production of light snow across northern Nebraska Saturday.
Thermal profiles support all snow as temperatures remain below 0c
throughout the troposphere. Moisture return is not ideal, but an
inch or snow will be possible over our far north central Nebraska
zones. With southerly flow expected over western and southwest
Nebraska and the possibility of a few breaks in the sky cover,
high temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 30s. Upper
divergence increases with an approaching jet Saturday night into
Sunday when the next cold front arrives. Snow chances will
continue, in fact, there will be at least a chance of
precipitation across the entire CWA Sunday morning, but once again
if snow is realized, only light accumulations are forecast. The
latest proximity soundings from the Sandhills and south indicate a
mixed bag of precipitation possibly Sunday. For now will keep it
simple and maintain the integrity of the previous forecast. Monday
at this point appears dry and seasonal, but the next strong front
arrives late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast
to fall considerably and wind speeds will be breezy. Consmos best
picks up on the wind potential,thus was used in the forecast.
Highs on Tuesday will struggle to climb into the teens for most
locations save for the higher terrain of far southwest Nebraska.
System relative light snow is possible with and behind the front
Tuesday, but once again a dry troposphere would keep accumulations
light. The remainder of the week looks cold...if not bitterly cold
with at least a chance mention of light snow at times. Model
consistency is not as it should be, but the prospects of the big
cool down appears likely. Will need to monitor late next week when
the next Arctic front is progged to arrive. Single digit highs may
be optimistic.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

VFR is expected all areas overnight through Friday evening. The
SREF...NAM and GFS suggest MVFR cigs may develop along the SD
border late tonight and Friday. These clouds are associated with a
warm front which should lift north of Nebraska maintaining VFR.

These models also suggest some potential for MVFR cigs across Swrn
Neb Friday night. The model consensus is VFR and the NAM and other
models showing the MVFR is an artifact of snow cover generated by
the models.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.