Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 202030
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA THIS EVENING...TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER ELKO COUNTY. THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NEVADA LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

INTERESTING, AND RARE, SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR NEVADA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, NEAR
LOS ANGELES THIS AFTERNOON, IS POISED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LIFT/DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, AND THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IT WILL BE
INGESTING FROM ARIZONA, GIVES HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AS
WELL, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STILL, BELIEVE THE HIGHEST THREAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY REAL THREAT, WITH SOME OF IT
OCCURRING WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH IT
BEING A WEEKEND, AND MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN PROGRESS, PARTNERS
AND CUSTOMERS ARE URGED TO BE AWARE OF THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGES. GAVE SOME THOUGHT
ABOUT ADDING HUMBOLDT COUNTY, BUT FELT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL JUST TO THE SE OF WINNEMUCCA, WITH LESSER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM, WITH THE THREAT
EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD QPF OF
0.25-0.50 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES DISCUSSION FROM
NESDIS IS EXCELLENT, AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH THEM, AGREE THIS
PATTERN IS ONE THAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE GREAT BASIN. LIFT WILL BE STRONG, AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD PW FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, THE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING IS SUBSTANTIAL. STAY TUNED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR
FLOOD ADVISORIES, STATEMENTS, AND WARNINGS.

VERY MILD TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM NORTH. MANY
VALLEYS WILL FAIL TO FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES, SMASHING WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR SEPTEMBER 21.

SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA, PRODUCING A
CLOUDY COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK,
FOR SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS, SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS, AND CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
EJECTS RAPIDLY OUT OF NEVADA, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
MODELS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MOST LOCALES, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THURSDAY DGEX...GFS AND
GEM BRING A DECENT TROF INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE EC HOLDS
THE TROF ALONG THE WEST LONGER. STILL...ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A WINDY DAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
THINK PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
CWA. THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS THURSDAY. HAVE BEST CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AS MODELS...EXCEPTION THE EC...HAVE TROF AXIS OVER WESTERN NV AND
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NV. AT THIS TIME...WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND
-4C...SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP AROUND 6500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON NEXT SATURDAY WITH
SNOW LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7000 FEET. BY THIS TIME...EC IS JUST
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH. ONE PROBLEM NOTED IS GFS IS
DIGGING THE TROF ON FRIDAY WHICH ACTUALLY MAY SLOW THE SYSTEM UP
CLOSER TO THE EC SOLUTION. JH

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY, WITH
SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLOODING MOST
LIKELY NEAR ANY BURN SCARS. LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH INSTABILITY FUELING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LAL OF AT LEAST 4,
WITH 5 POSSIBLE FOR SOME FWZ. INCREASING PW WILL KEEP STORMS WET,
WITH ANY NEW FIRE STARTS SMALL AND LIMITED.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY.

WINDY DRY WEATHER, WITH STRONG SW WINDS, IS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. SOME WIND/RH ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF STRONG APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/87/87/99




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