Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 252100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DRY AIR STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ONLY SOME WISPY CIRRUS AND A FEW CUMULUS NEAR GREAT BASIN
NATIONAL PARK. GOES SOUNDER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
A VERY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT INCHING NORTHWARD THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY, THE BEGINNINGS OF A MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE THAT WILL
INFLUENCE NEVADA`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THE SAME GRADIENT, WITH PW RANGING FROM 0.60
ACROSS NW LINCOLN COUNTY TO 1.4 OVER SE LINCOLN COUNTY. THERE`S NO
QUESTION ABOUT IT, THE MOISTURE IS COMING NORTH, THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TIMING
OF THE MOISTURE`S RETURN, BUT THE GENERAL THEME OF INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HOLD. CAPE NEAR
500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3C AS FAR NORTH AS PIOCHE AS OF
NOON, SO STILL MAY SEE SOME STORMS NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE CLEAR AND
DRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE
COOLEST 12Z MET GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY MORNING`S LOWS, WHERE THE
SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR.

SATURDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE
SE ZONES. ALTHOUGH GFS AND OTHER MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE MOISTURE`S
ADVANCE SOME COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING
THIS TREND GIVEN THE OBVIOUS MOISTURE LURKING TO OUR SOUTH AS SEEN
ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. PW EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 0.50 INCH AS
FAR NORTH AS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS BY 5 PM SATURDAY, ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES INTO SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
QUALITY MOISTURE (PW NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO EASTERN NYE AND SE WHITE PINE COUNTIES, WHERE
INSTABILIT WILL BE STRONG, AND STRONG STORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S.

SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, PROVIDING A CLOUDY SKY AND MUCH
WARMER MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR ELKO SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTENING AND THICK CLOUDS, WITH PW
CLIMBING TO NEAR ONE INCH AT ELKO BY 5 PM. MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL, BUT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. INCREASED POP GRIDS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON STORMS FORMING, FROM THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS TO EUREKA TO WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE GFS DROPS LIFTED
INDEX DROPS TO -3. ELSEWHERE, CONVECTION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR. FLOW IS VERY WEAK ON SUNDAY (0-5 KTS AT 700 MB) SO ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND POSE A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED NEAR OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA...WITH 588 DM H5 HEIGHTS
STRETCHING INTO CANADA ALONG THE RIDGE CREST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
VERY MOIST FLOW...AN INVITATION FOR A LONG RUN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE...PERHAPS THE MOST SUSTAINED MOIST FLOW IN SEVERAL YEARS. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS MOISTURE-LADEN AS THE GFS NAM AND DGEX MODELS SO THE
MOISTURE SUPPLY COULD BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES. HOWEVER AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN POPS DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT IS WARRANTED. NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REACHING TO AROUND ONE INCH WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FLIRTING WITH WIND/RH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457, WHERE SW WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 MPH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BEAR TRAP FIRE
BECOMING AGITATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN EXPANDING SMOKE
PLUME AND PYROCUMULUS. WIND/RH COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT
A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT MANAGING ONGOING FIRES IN FWZ 455 AND 457
WILL BE DIFFICULT INTO THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SE FWZ 455 INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD, WITH SCATTERED
WET STORMS (LAL 4) EXPECTED ACROSS/NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY.
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS WHERE PW WILL REACH 0.50 INCH BY 5 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN SE FWZ 455 AND EASTERN FWZ
457 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. SLOW STORM MOTION AND HEALTHY
PW WILL ENCOURAGE MOST STORMS TO EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE RAINFALL. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/92/92/99





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