Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 051515
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
815 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY FOR THE
FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA SUNDAY MORNING.
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A STRONG WARMING TREND.

&&

.UPDATE...UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON, WITH THE COLDEST VALLEYS NEAR
20. WITH 12Z MET GUIDANCE FOR WINNEMUCCA DOWN TO 29, EXPANDED THE
WARNING TO INCLUDE HUMBOLDT COUNTY. BAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 738 AM /

SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER NEVADA TODAY FOR THE
FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA SUNDAY MORNING.
VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A STRONG WARMING TREND.

UPDATE...UPDATED ALL GRIDS THROUGH TODAY TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER,
AND ELIMINATE MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM DEVELOPS NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEVADA TODAY, WITH AIRMASS WAY TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT IT. KEPT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON THE JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS,
EXPECTING NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

WILL BE UPGRADING THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NE NEVADA FOR TONIGHT TO A
FREEZE WARNING SHORTLY.

TURNER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 203 AM /

SYNOPSIS...COOLER TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE IDAHO AND
NEVADA BORDER. A CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF BACKING OFF ON PRECIP FOR TODAY. CUT POPS BACK AND ONLY
INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK AT BEST. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE JET
LOCATION AND DYNAMICS COULD KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. DID NOT REALLY
CHANGE ANYTHING FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING FORECAST. MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HUMBOLDT AND NYE
COUNTIES WILL SEE MAINLY LOWER TO UPPER 30S. GUSTY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA...WHERE GUSTS TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DECAY AND MOVE EAST...WITH COOLER LEFTOVER AIR IN THE BASE TO
START THE LONG TERM...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE. AS TROUGH
DISINTEGRATES...FLAT RIDGE TAKES ITS PLACE. DRY PERIOD WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY WEEKEND. WINDS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA
NECESSITATE VCSH AT KWMC AND KEKO. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER AT THESE
TERMINALS...BUT SOME TOWERING CU OR SMALL CB`S MIGHT BE VISIBLE
DISTANTLY FROM THEM. KELY AND KTPH DRY. GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AT
KELY AND KEKO.

FIRE WEATHER...TEMPS ARE DROPPING FAST TONIGHT AND RH IS RISING.
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...BUT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. FWZ 470 WILL SEE
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTION. RH WILL BE
IN THE 15-25% RANGE. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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