National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KLKN 241306
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
606 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH TO ENVELOP THE GREAT BASIN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE HEADLINES FROM ZONE
PRODUCT AS FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN
WARMING UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR...ON THE WAY TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. HIGHLY VARIABLE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING GENERALLY
DIPPED INTO THE 20S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 AM /

SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH TO ENVELOP THE GREAT BASIN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER...MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS FEW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING AND WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED ALL AROUND...BACK
TO NORMAL DRAINAGE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
COOLER WITH THE DECREASED WIND AND CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH STILL
ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST SITES AS OF 1 AM PDT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
VERY GOOD SYNCHRONICITY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LATEST
RUN.

BASICALLY A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL...HIGHS AND LOWS. THE LAST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SPOKE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO AND MONTANA. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOW
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN TODAY
AND WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL GENERALLY MAX OUT AROUND 40
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES...60S TO AROUND 70 NORTH...70S ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED H5 PACIFIC LOW CHURNING OVER ALBERTA AND
A SECOND CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST...WITH A TROF EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
LITTERING THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VIRTUALLY IN SYNC AT F54
AND THIS PHASING DISSIPATES AS TIME ELAPSES. GIVEN THE VAGARIES OF
THE MODELS...KEEPING IT GENERAL. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AXIS
STILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE SILVER STATE BORDER AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTED TO BUMP UP THE POPS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS ...EXPECT THE
WEST TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
EXTENDED RESIDENCE TIME OF THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500MB.
SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE GENERALLY EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LKN CWA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH WPC AND CPC PROGS.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT THE VORTEX. THE TROF AXIS
BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT ON MONDAY...A PATTERN WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION IN THE BATTLE BORN STATE. ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE...GIVEN
THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...HEDGING TOWARDS ISOLATED TSRA.
BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE ECMWF BRINGS A POTENT VORT LOBE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND H5 CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS...KEEPING THE
LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF OUT OF THE LKN CWA...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
AN ELONGATED FETCH OF +90 PERCENT 700MB TO 500MB RH INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NV. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. A MATURE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SILVER STATE...BRINGING SOME
UPPER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. A FINGER OF THE JET WILL PUSH ACROSS ELY
AND JACKPOT TODAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE
AT KELY...AND KEKO. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME AN
ISSUE AFTER 19Z.

FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
ENCROACH UPON WESTERN ZONE 467 LATE SATURDAY. AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH AND ENCOMPASSES THE GREAT BASIN...NEXT WEEK
WILL BE LARGELY UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97