Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 042241
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 PM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD. FOR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO HUMBOLDT
COUNTY, MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTION WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST, APPROXIMATELY TO A BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO
EUREKA LINE. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
TREK INLAND WHICH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NV.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AN OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF QPF
PERSIST. BY MONDAY ALL MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 70S. ONE OF THE BIGGER
CHANGES TO THIS LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BACK OFF ON POPS
FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MODELS DO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
NYE OR WHITE PINE COUNTY. MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASING MODEL UNCERTAINTY
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.
&&

.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BE
ADVANCING TOWARD NEVADA IN THE COMING DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NEVADA TODAY. THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING KTPH AND
KELY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AS THE WEST
COAST STORM NEARS NEVADA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
STORMS ON THURSDAY MAY AFFECT KWMC AND KTPH WHERE LIGHT RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
EXCEED BANKFULL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THE
JARBIDGE RIVER IS CONTINUING TO RISE AND HAS BEEN PEAKING IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE AT TIMES.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/96/96



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