Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 032115
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NEVADA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED. STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATION IS MOST FAVORABLE. 18Z NAM/HRRR SOLUTIONS ORGANIZE
CENTRAL NEVADA INTO A LOOSE COMPLEX, AND MOVE IT NE INTO SOUTHERN
ELKO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, DURING THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME. WILL
AT LEAST DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THIS
EVENING, WHERE CAPE STANDS AT 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX -3.
EXPECT ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LESS
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING TO FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS, MAINLY IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS
OVER NEVADA, IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY 5 PM. LOWER 90S RETURN TO MANY NORTHERN NEVADA
VALLEYS, TYPICAL FOR AUGUST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER CROP OF SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH PW FALLING WELL BELOW 0.50 INCH, SO DROPPED
POP GRIDS TO ZERO FOR THESE ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN NW NEVADA BY 5 AM. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE NOCTURNAL
RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO/HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES, AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER, COURTESY OF
CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND MIXING. MODELS AGREE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS NEVADA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES SHARPLY, WITH PW
FALLING BELOW 0.50 INCH FOR MOST ZONES. AS SUCH, INSTABILITY AND
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED, RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NE ELKO COUNTY. PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK UP THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES. SOME COOLING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS FALLING
3-5 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY`S READINGS. TURNER



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS
THE REGION GETS WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. INCREASED POPS AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OPENS SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING
UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...WHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING NORTHEAST INTO UTAH AND
IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL LIKELY AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF KELY. AS FOR KWMC KEKO AND
KTPH...SHOULD HAVE SOME MODERATE WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING STORMS AT ANY OF THESE THREE TERMINALS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEKO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL ROTATE NE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA THIS
EVENING, BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. LAL OF 4, WITH GUSTY
ERRACTIC OUTFLOW WINDS AS ALWAYS.

ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH LAL 4, TO BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. DRIER AIR WILL DROP
MIN RH TO 10-15% FOR MOST FWZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-20 MPH FOR ALL FWZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGER SW WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME GUSTS ACROSS FWZ 455 AND
457 WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NW NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY. ALSO, EXPECT GUSTY W/SW WINDS WEDNESDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, AVERAGING 15-25 MPH. AGAIN, EXPECT WINDS TO
FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR MOST FWZ. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/96/96/99


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