Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 291033
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
333 AM PDT Wed Mar 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Fair conditions today will transition to a much more
active weather pattern beginning this afternoon across northwest
Nevada. A potent storm system and accompanying cold front will
move through the state late Wednesday and Thursday bringing colder
temperatures and windy conditions to the region. Valley rain
Wednesday night will switch to snow Thursday afternoon and night as
colder air moves across the state. Quieter weather is expected for
the weekend as a ridge builds over the Great Basin.
.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight. Dry conditions ahead of an
approaching strong storm system is expected across most of the
state today. Increasing mid to upper-level moisture moves onshore
into northern CA through today. This will bring a few light
showers to Humboldt county later today signaling the beginning of
impacts from a strong cold front and associated trough. Precip
overspreads northern nevada tonight initially as mountain snow and
Thursday. Colder air moving into the region behind a robust cold
front late Thursday morning will drop snow levels to most valley
floors by Thursday afternoon. Mild temperatures today and
relatively warm ground temperatures will inhibit initial snow
accumulation on Thursday in valley locations. Nonetheless, 1 to 3
inches is expected when all said and done by Friday afternoon. The
mountains however, are a different story. Humboldt National
Forest and higher elevations in northern Elko County, the Ruby
Mountains and GBNP could see a foot or more of snow in favored
locations. Favorable northwest flow late Thursday could result in
a short period of upslope enhancement on windward slopes such as
Lamoille and Spring Creek along the Rubies. There is still quite a
bit of spread amongst ensemble members as far at total QPF goes.
Recent changes in deterministic runs continue to shift the bulk of
QPF over northern Elko county and concentration in mountains.
Confidence remains high for at least advisory level snowfall,
generally 6 to 12 inches, in mountains so elevation based advisory
would suffice today.
Friday. Lingering snow on the back side of the closed low in
southern Utah will diminish through the day across eastern Nevada.
Latest model runs have the system progressing through the region a
bit faster so residence time and ultimately snow totals from late
Thursday night into Friday morning have been reduced.
.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. The closed low will
be exiting the region with snow showers tapering off through
Saturday morning. Additional light accumulations will be possible
across extreme eastern NV. Cool N/NW winds will move in behind the
departing system with much drier conditions.
By Saturday and Sunday, a dirty ridge will quickly build into the
Silver State bringing warmer and dry weather. Daytime highs will
be near to slightly above average. By late Sunday, the ridge will
be weakening as another trof potentially begins to impact the CWA.
Forecast models have come into a little better agreement tonight,
but there are still noticeable model discrepancies. This system
appears to be on the colder side with snow/rain likely across
valleys. The storm is forecast to exit the region Tuesday morning,
being replaced by breezy winds and below average temps.
On Tuesday, another ridge will quickly build into the region with
a bump in daytime highs. Looking past Tuesday, the weather
pattern remains unsettled. Confidence is marginal in the pattern
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday night.
-SHRA will approach KWMC by later Wednesday afternoon/evening. The
rest of the TAF sites, will remain dry. However the cloud deck
will begin lowering through the day, especially by Wednesday
night. KELY AMD NOT SKED due to missing visibility.
.HYDROLOGY...Long term flooding of the lower Humboldt River
continues. Many stream/river levels remain elevated or in flood
stage, some with swift flows and noticeable bank erosion.
The next storm system for Thursday and Friday night will bring
widespread significant valley and mtn precipitation. Many valley
locations will see 0.3" to 0.6" of liquid, some in the form of
snow. Places in Elko and White Pine Counties could see locally
more. The mountains will also see significant precipitaton, mainly
in the form of snow.
Due to the significant forecast precipitation, water levels will
likely fluctuate and some locations could see additional rises.
Stay informed with upcoming forecasts and potentially further
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Northern Elko
County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko
County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Humboldt
County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County.
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.