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000
FXUS65 KLKN 191044
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON
BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE DETAILS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FASTER ON THE PROGRESSION
OF THE 500 MB PACIFIC LOW BY LATE THURSDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER
MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND 70S OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA. 10-15 DEGREE WARM UP ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.

PROBLEM O` THE DAY IS LOW TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A
RANGE OF ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WHICH IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING GIVEN THAT
THIS RANGE STRADDLES FREEZING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE LADEN SHORT WAVES WILL CONTROL
THE ACTUAL MIN TEMPS AND DURATION OF THE MINS. BELIEVE THAT TEMPS
MAY SPIKE DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR RIGHT AT FREEZING IN MOST
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS FOR A SHORT DURATION AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT
AND THEN RECOVER AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. IN CENTRAL NEVADA...SOME COLD
PRONE VALLEYS WILL SPIKE DOWN TO LOW TO MID 30S FOR A SHORT TIME FOR
SAME REASONS. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
PHENOMENON RATHER THAN A FREEZE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE SHORT
DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY.

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTHERN
NEVADA...SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CALI AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT SEE LIKELIES...MORE LIKE HIGH
CHANCE...OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO HAVE LOWERED THEM A HAIR. SNOW
LEVELS DO DROP TO THE 8000 FOOT RANGE IN A FEW SELECT RANGES IN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES...MAINLY THE INDEPENDENCE...SANTA
ROSA...AND JARBIDGE AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND CERTAINLY NOT ON
HIGHWAYS OR POPULATED VALLEYS...BUT A BEAUTIFUL MID JUNE DUSTING
COULD MAKE SOME GOOD PHOTO OPS.

DRY AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATER THURSDAY ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP.

GUSTY WINDS AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSES TODAY AND THEN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN SPEEDS BUT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. BB

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS
OUT TRANQUIL...BUT THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER. WE
START OUT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH. ENERGY APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE...SO RIGHT NOW HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT A SHOWER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PLACES IN THE 30S OR LOW 40S.

THAT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY AND SUNNY SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE PASSING TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
COOLER AND NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

RIDGE AXIS PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MORE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
LIKELY TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION. ITS GETTING A BIT LATE IN THE YEAR FOR THIS
TO AFFECT OUR CWA BUT NOT QUITE IMPOSSIBLE. STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES...BUT FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE 0Z GUIDANCE THAT A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TIMING WILL NOT BE HAD FOR A FEW DAYS BUT RIGHT NOW DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY THEN MAY COOL A BIT
MONDAY AS THE MOISTURE FLOWS IN.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS LATER NEXT WEEK AS TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MOISTURE AND WHETHER IT MAY GENERATE FURTHER SHOWERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST MAINLY DRY. RCM


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN ISSUE IS
GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 30 KNOTS. RCM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH WETTING RAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT RH`S MUCH HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A 7-10 DEGREE WARM UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.



&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/93/93/98