Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS65 KLKN 240913
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
213 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
SILVER STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY FRIDAY. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE AND VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN
THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW ANOMALOUSLY WARMER SPOTS. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CLOUDINESS WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE. KLRX AND KRGX RADARS SHOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEVADA AT THIS TIME AS WELL AND...WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE PREVENTED
FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER...LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY LOCALES. IT IS COLDER AND DRIER IN CENTRAL
NEVADA...ESPECIALLY WHITE PINE COUNTY...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL FALL TO FREEZING. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY IS
DEPICTED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING TODAY.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE. THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DIRT
TO CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...THUS CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
TODAY...BEGINNING THIS MORNING. THE ARW MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE PICKING UP
ON THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA AT THIS
TIME. EXTENDED POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO CATCH ALL OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY
AND PART OF NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...AND THE RIDGE SHOULD NUDGE MOISTURE A TAD NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH TO NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. AS THE RIDGE CREST MOVES THROUGH
TODAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 7500-8500 FEET...THEN LOWER TO
6500-7000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
VALLEYS IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH
INTO THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STILL CONCERNED ON TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING BACK UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON VS. THE MORE AMBITIOUS GFS SOLUTION DISPLAYING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF FRIDAY MORNING. JET ENERGY ALSO LOOKS SIMILAR
HOWEVER FURTHER DIGGING COULD COMPLICATE THE INITIAL SURGE OF
MOISTURE. THE ECMWF NAM AND GFS MODELS ALL SHOW A 150 KT JET CORE
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY HOWEVER THE H3 JET FLOW IS
IMBALANCED BY AS MUCH AS 40 KT FAVORING THE WEST SIDE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BE SCOOPED UP AND SLUNG OVER THE STATE BY THE
TIME THE UPPER LOW RE-CENTERS NEAR SAN FRANCISCO AT THE END OF THE
DAY FRIDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS DEPICTED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING 110 KT JET FLOW AND MODEL QPF
IS SIGNIFICANT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WHITE PINE
COUNTY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER EASTERN NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY HOLD ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
HOWEVER MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO PILE UP SOME SNOW AND ANY
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION COULD PERIODICALLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AS THE AIR MASS COOLS. A WINTER STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN
REACHING VALLEY FLOORS AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LANDER...SOUTHERN EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

SUNDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIPS OVER THE TOP OF DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
INSIGNIFICANT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. STILL CHILLY FOR LATE APRIL,
WITH CLOUDS HOLDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SW OF LOS ANGELES
MONDAY, WILL AMPLIFY STRONGLY ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR NEVADA, UNDER DRY COOL
N/NW FLOW. PW FALLS WELL BELOW 1/4 INCH BY WEDNESDAY, AND CLOUDS
WILL BE HARD TO FIND BY THE LAST DAY OF APRIL. DID SLOW DOWN THE
EXPECTED WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK, AS NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. BT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 00Z FRI, WITH OVC CIGS OF 5-10K FT. EXPECT
ISOLATED -SHRA TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
18Z, SW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AT KWMC AND KEKO, AND 10-20 KTS AT KELY
AND KTPH. EXPECT SCT -SHRA TO AFFECT KWMC AND KEKO 00-12Z FRI.

NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY KEKO AND KELY. VFR WILL PREVAIL, BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED 00-18Z SAT, WITH IFR
CIGS/VIS MOST LIKELY AT KEKO AND KELY SATURDAY MORNING. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

92/99/99





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.