Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 241903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
203 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Seeing our pressure gradient tighten ahead of a cold front moving
into the Upper Midwest now. We should see high clouds increase again
ahead of this feature, some time later this evening. Low-level
moisture profiles still are quite dry, but by daybreak we could see
enough moistening to get a few sprinkles through mid morning. Even
the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM now have backed off on measurable precip,
save for a small stripe along the KY/TN border.  The added cloud
cover and steady southerly winds will mean warmer lows, likely
dropping to the lower to mid 40s for most locations.

We will have a small window to warm up during the late morning/early
afternoon hours Saturday before the northwest winds bring in the
cooler air. By late night though, high pressure will ridge across
the region, bringing lighter winds again. Highs should be in the mid
to upper 50s and lows Sunday morning will get back to around


.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, bringing one cool
day. Then it will shift east and we will start a warmup which should
keep us above normal Mon-Wed. Then on Wed. night, a shortwave trough
looks to rush through the Midwest, potentially bringing a quick
round of showers. A stronger trough looks to move in late Thu.
into Fri. bringing better precipitation chances Thursday as well
as more significant cold air.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Southerly winds will increase across the region this morning and
stay elevated tonight as a cold front approaches the region. This
front will move through on Saturday morning to early afternoon,
shifting the winds to more northwesterly. For tonight a low level
jet of 40-45 knots between 1500-2000 feet will develop. Thus low
level wind shear has been added to the TAFs for tonight.

Mainly scattered mid and high level clouds will stream across the
region today. A mid level ceiling will develop as the front
approaches and moves through. There is a small chance of some
sprinkles with the front, but given the low confidence and low
impact, will leave this out of the forecast.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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