Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 280653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
253 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

One more day of showers and storms is in store for the region, then
a change to cooler and drier weather for the weekend. The cold front
bringing this change is currently just to the north of the forecast
area, stretching across central IN. This front will sink south
through southern IN and central KY this morning into the afternoon.

Current radar has mainly showers ongoing across the region with just
a few lightning strikes showing up. Showers and storms will continue
off and on through the early evening hours, with some precip
possible even behind the front today. The latest high resolution
guidance shows a relative lull after sunrise with more storms
developing this afternoon in association with the daytime heating.

Soundings do show the region becoming moderately unstable this
afternoon and a few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible,
mainly across central KY. Additionally, precipitable water values
will remain in the 2" range. Heavy downpours and the potential for
some localized flooding issues will continue through the afternoon.

Precipitation should come to an end fairly quickly through the
evening as the drier air behind the front really begins to work in.
Dewpoints will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight with
lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs Saturday will be quite nice for
this time of year, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The long term period will be relatively quiet. Aloft we will have
ridging to the west and troughing to the east. Surface high pressure
will be in place through mid week. This will bring dry weather
through Wednesday. Another cold front will move in towards the end
of the work week bringing the next chance for showers and storms.

The long term will start out relatively cool with lows on Sunday
morning in the mid 50s to around 60. A warming trend is then in
store through mid week. Dewpoints will be on the rise with
temperatures warming back up to near normal for this time of year.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Moisture rich air mass ahead of an approaching cold front will bring
scattered to numerous showers and potential for lower ceilings to
all the TAF sites through the first half of the TAF period. Latest
radar returns show broken west/east line of showers from near HNB to
just north of SDF and LEX. This activity will slowly work
east/southeast through the pre-dawn hours. Convection intensity is
waning but some visibility reductions in heavier rainfall is
possible at the terminals.

Lower ceilings, down into the fuel alternate MVFR range or worse,
will likely spread over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky
through mid-morning. There is the potential for a few hours of IFR
conditions at SDF and LEX. Eventually an area of low pressure will
work east of the region, and winds will become northerly in its
wake. Once this occurs, chances for showers and storms will diminish
and also allow drier air to filter in. By late afternoon, conditions
should be much improved at SDF and LEX. At BWG, it may take until
early to mid evening before the front truly clears through.

By the end of the TAF period, high pressure nosing down into the
region will usher in much drier air with north breezes.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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