Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 051038
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
638 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.  HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LOW/SHEAR
AXIS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD.

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF IN/OH TODAY.  MOST 00Z GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED POORLY WITH THE CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING
YESTERDAY EVENING...THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH.  THAT BEING
SAID...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST COUPLED WITH THE HI-RES WRF-ARW (WHICH AT
LEAST HAD AN IDEA OF YESTERDAY EVENING`S CONVECTION)SUGGESTS A
FEW STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CENTRAL
INDIANA/SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SHEAR
AXIS...PERHAPS SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUT
OF KSDF SHOW A STRENGTHENING CAP AROUND 600MB THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL REALLY STRUGGLE
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LOUISVILLE TO RICHMOND.  EVEN WHERE CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE...ONLY SUBTLE FORCING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BASICALLY BE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES LOOK VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ONCE AGAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  FOR SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REALLY BE ON THE RISE AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND AREA...WHERE CAPPING WON`T BE QUITE AS STRONG AND A
WESTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES COME DOWN JUST A BIT ON SUNDAY...SO
WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM IS WHEN WILL THE HEAT BREAK AND WILL
WE GET BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
LOOKS TO CONTINUE DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOME
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WE STILL HAVE A QUESTION OF HOW CLOSE A FRONT
WILL GET TO US TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE
HIGHER FOR NORTH OF THAT BASED ON THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
BETTER POOL OF MOISTURE.

THE PROSPECT FOR A WET FORECAST LOOKS BETTER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS THAT FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED POOL OF MOISTURE
LINGERS IN THE VICINITY. WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET THIS FRONT TO
CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SO HAVE
GONE WITH A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
POPS OF 30-50 PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING
AT KBWG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM AT KLEX OR KSDF...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.  WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE ESE AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU.

LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.  OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........KJD
LONG TERM.........RJS
AVIATION..........KJD


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