Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 232011
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Expansive upper level low will exit off the mid Atlantic Coast
overnight, however low level moisture will continue to linger. As a
result, will continue to see some drizzle chances as well as small
chances at measurable rain through the evening. Most of this
activity should be along and east of I-65, with the best chances for
measurable along the I-75 corridor. Will also mention patchy fog
mainly along and east of I-65 tonight. Temps currently in the 45 to
50 degree range should fall into the 35 to 40 degree range by dawn
on Tuesday.

Progressive upper ridge moves overhead Tomorrow and tomorrow night
with a dry forecast expected. We`ll likely have trouble getting rid
of low clouds in the morning, but optimistic that we could see some
breaks by afternoon. If this scenario plays out, expect highs around
50. If not breaks occur, we may end up staying in the 40s.

Steady S flow stays up on Tuesday night, and with increasing sky
cover a pretty small diurnal range will occur. Look for lows mostly
in the 40 to 45 degree range.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Wednesday...

Storm system moves across the Great Lakes and drags a moisture
starved cold front through our area on Wednesday. Not expecting
much, if any, rainfall with this frontal passage but do expect gusty
winds. In fact, gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are expected. Enjoy
Wednesday temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60, because
temperatures fall behind it.

Wednesday Night - Monday...

We`ll switch to a cooler and more "winter-like" pattern to end the
week as overall troughiness envelops the NE CONUS. NW flow aloft
will dominate over the Ohio River Valley, with several disturbances
passing through the flow. At this point, chances for rain or snow
showers (depending on time of day) will be greatest across our far
NE where the best moisture should be located. As we get into the
weekend, colder air becomes more established and snow showers may
become more likely. Of particular interest would be later Sunday,
where models generally agree on a potent system diving into the
region. The amount of available moisture is in question so won`t be
too detailed, but in general more widespread snowfall would be a
possibility.

Highs should generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s each day.
Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 30s, with a cooler trend
Thursday night and beyond in the 20s. Overall, these temps are near
climo, but slightly below.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 12:55 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Low stratus is expected to stick around at all three TAF sites this
evening and overnight as low-level moisture lingers on the backside
of a low pressure system. High confidence in IFR/LIFR ceilings for
the next several hours at LEX. There is a low chance for a shower at
LEX this afternoon, but mainly dry weather is expected. Ceilings
will hover closer to 1 kft at SDF/BWG this evening and overnight.
Flight conditions will improve to VFR from mid to late morning
Tuesday. Clouds will scatter out as drier air punches in from the
west.

Winds will remain breezy out of the northwest through 00z Tue with
occasional gusts to 20 kts. Winds will back westerly tonight into
early Tuesday and diminish.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EBW


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