Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 220930
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER CONDITIONS AND LESS COASTAL STRATUS THROUGH THE WEEK. A
COUPLE OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA...WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE.

FORECAST-WISE...IT SHOULD BE A RATHER UNREMARKABLE WEEKEND FOR THE
DISTRICT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...STRATUS IS SLOWLY
BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...WILL EXPECT
STRATUS/FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...REACHING INTO THE LOWER
COASTAL VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THE
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF NICELY EACH AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY SUNDAY THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVERHEAD FROM CURRENT TROPICAL STORM LOWELL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL EXPECT COASTAL AND COASTAL VALLEYS TO BE
A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH ANTICIPATED STRATUS COVERAGE AND STRONGER
ONSHORE GRADIENTS...AND EVEN SOME COOLING INLAND. ON SATURDAY...THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS...WITH RELATIVELY
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
SAME SYNOPTIC IDEAS...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES FROM DAY-TO-DAY.
AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY
THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE NOTED BY CONTINUE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13-E
WILL BE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE "MARIE" AND FORECAST TO BE ABOUT
700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT
FORECAST
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM (WHICH IS SUBJECT TO GREAT CHANGE)...THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME NEUTRAL OR EVEN WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW DOES DEVELOP WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER
AND STRATUS LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BY THURSDAY THE
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM THE FUTURE "MARIE" AND WILL GO WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...22/220 AM...

NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL...CENTERED AROUND 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
LOS ANGELES THIS EVENING WILL BRING 4 TO 5 FOOT SOUTHERLY SWELL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PEAK SWELL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST AND WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER HURRICANE
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LARGER SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH THIS EVENT REACHING
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...22/230 AM...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL THEN
COME INTO EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR HIGH SURF ACROSS SOUTH
FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AS WELL. A SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL IS THE CAUSE OF THIS INCREASING SURF AND HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF HAS BEEN BUILDING SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BREAKERS UP TO 8 FEET BEING OBSERVED AT
PORT HUENEME AND 6 FEET AT CABRILLO BEACH. THE PEAK OF THIS SURF
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WHEN BREAKERS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES...WITH LOCAL SETS UP TO 9 FEET IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA INCLUDING
CABRILLO BEACH...AS WELL AS MALIBU AND ZUMA BEACHES. FOR VENTURA
COUNTY...PORT HUENEME AND POINT MUGU WILL BE AT HIGHEST RISK.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN HIGHER SOUTHERLY SURF EVENT FOR
THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SHOW ANOTHER HURRICANE SPINNING UP IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH HAZARDS...CAK
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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