Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 231720
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST FOR SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE FOR ONE
MORE DAY TO BRING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNNY
SKIES. JUST SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG AT -1.6 FOR LAX-DAG. FRIDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY...DESPITE HEIGHTS LEVELING
OFF SOME AND EVEN BEGINNING TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND`S
TROUGH PASSAGE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN 12Z MODELS AND THEIR
HANDLING THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT TO CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST IF NOT
TRIM WHAT POPS THERE ARE UP NORTH BACK A BIT.

FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIVERGE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS BUILDS A GOOD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. NEAR THE SURFACE...A WEST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER.

FORECAST-WISE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER DULL DAYS. WITH
THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT...ANY STRATUS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE
THE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE (A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS).

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES NOTICEABLY. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES BETTER...THEN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL BE TEMPERED AND ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WOULD
BE MUCH WEAKER AND MORE LOCALIZED. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE A
MODERATE WARMING TREND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANY STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BY 24/04Z AND THEN MODERATE SOUTH AFTER 24/16Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE SOUTH WINDS BY 24/22Z. MARINE INVERSION
WAS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A ISOLATED CLOUD FIELD SOUTH OF THE AREA.
INVERSION AND CLOUD FIELD WILL DIFFER LITTLE FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 24/04Z THEN RELATIVELY FLAT
GRADIENT BETWEEN 24/04-24/17Z THEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AFTER
24/17Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1545Z WAS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2373 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES C.

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS


&&

.MARINE...23/900 AM...

IT IS LIKELY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SHORE SUNDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE GALES WILL EXIST FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
10-60NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 800 NM
WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM A FETCH WITH LIMITED
LENGTH AND SHORT-LIVED AND ORIENTED 300-310 DEGREES TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GENERATED SEAS SUNDAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SS

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