Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 021131 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ONSHORE
BREEZES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
REALLY DULL WEATHER ON TAP. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST GASP OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DOMINATED THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HGTS WILL START
OUT AT 591 DM THIS MORNING BUT WILL FALL A FEW DM AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST WHILE A PAC NW TROF BEGINS TO MOVE IN. 1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER
COMBINED WITH A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING MARINE STRATUS TO ALL COASTS
AND VLYS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING
HOWEVER AS THE EDDY IS NOT THAT STRONG. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A ONSHORE
PUSH UP NORTH TO KEEP A FEW OF THE CENTRAL COAST BEACHES CLOUDY. A
GOOD DOSE OF INLAND COOLING TODAY COMPARED TO YDY AND A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS. THE DEEPER THAN NORMAL MARINE
LAYER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY. IF YOU LIKE TO LOOK AT WEATHER MAPS YOU
WILL NOTICE THE UPR HIGH HAS PUSHED WELL EASTWARD AND THAT THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION IS UNDER THE SW FLOW FORM A LONG WAVE
TROF. BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE WEATHER MUCH. LOW CLOUDS FOR THE
COASTS AND ALL VLYS. MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS BLO
NORMAL AND IN FACT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

MORE TROFING AND LOWER HGTS SLATED FOR THURSDAY. MORE MARINE CLOUDS.
STILL SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS 6 T0 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EXTENDED MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AND BUMP UP THE HGTS AND SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER SOME. LOOK
FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND A SMALL DECREASE IN MARINE LAYER
EACH DAY.

XTND MDLS DO DEVELOP ANOTHER HURRICANE NEAR BAJA AND MOVE IT ALONG A
PATH SIMILAR TO MARIE (A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH) NEXT SUNDAY.
GFS AND EC THEN DISAGREE ABOUTS ITS FATE BUT NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AFFECT SO CAL WEATHER ALTHOUGH IT
MIGHT AFFECT THE SURF.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1500 FEET...AND
STRATUS/FOG HAS FILLED INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THRU LATE MORNING...IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON (AT THE LATEST) BUT WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR
CONDS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN CURRENT 18Z FORECAST. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS RETURN...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF
STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 AM...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEK...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCAL
GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORIES.

.BEACHES...02/200 AM...

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (18-20 SECONDS) ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PEAK FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS HIGH AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE MARIE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 6 FEET OR GREATER WILL OCCUR ACROSS
FAVORED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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