Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 011134 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)... MARINE LAYER IS 1300 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION. THE ONSHORE PUSH TO KDAG IS
ABOUT THREE MB WHICH IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT THERE IS A 1.5 MB
OFFSHORE TREND (WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ONLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW) FROM
KBFL. BY DAWN MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED INTO MOST COASTS AND
VLYS AND BY DAWN ONLY THE SANTA CLARITA VLY WILL BE FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED TO THE SSW AND HAS EFFECTIVELY
SHUT OFF THE MONSOON FLOW. PWS HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY. WHILE
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHC OF A MTN TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THE SYNOPTIC PARAMETERS SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY EXCEPT THE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES EVEN MORE SW. THE NW FLOW
DOES INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF SBA COUNTY AND THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SUNDOWNER TO THE GAVIOTA REGION EACH NIGHT. THIS LITTLE
SUNDOWNER WILL ALSO LIMIT BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE STRATUS FOR THE SBA
SOUTH COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST A TOUCH AS HGTS FALL A FEW DM.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)... THE EC AND THE GFS DISAGREE IN THE LONG TERM
WITH THE GFS SLOWLY BRINGING A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE EC
FORECASTS A WEAK TROF AND THEN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IT SHUTTLES
IN A DRY UPPER LOW. HGTS ARE REALLY ABOUT THE SAME WED AND THU SO IN
REALITY EITHER MDL WILL NOT PRODUCE THAT DIFFERENT A FCST. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN FCST AND IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES THERE WILL BE A MUCH DEEPER
MARINE LAYER AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...

01/1130Z

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0800Z WAS 1300 FEET DEEP. THE INVERSION
TOP WAS AT 2200 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING. CONDS WERE GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY MVFR
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT SLOWER
CLEARING TODAY...WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING IN THE VALLEYS...AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEYS AREAS TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDS
EXPECTED.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...

01/300 AM

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE SUN NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN SUN MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORIES
WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MID WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA CONDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SCA CONDS
BECOMING LIKELY SUN NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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