Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 231707 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1005 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW THEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA EXPECT COOLER
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES SUNDAY...WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THU)...A COOLER START TO THE MORNING
TODAY BUT EXPECT THINGS TO CATCH UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FOR
ANOTHER SLIGHT WARMING TREND. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE (LESS ONSHORE) AND ARE NEAR NEUTRAL LAST HOUR.
THIS GRADIENT TREND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW TO BRING A REPEAT
STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLEARING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TOMORROW BEFORE
COOLING ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP...BUT DRY...TROUGH FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE TROF WILL SIT NEARLY STATIONARY OFF OF THE WEST COAST FRI AND
SAT, THE LOWER HGTS AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TRIGGER A DEEP
MARINE LAYER THAT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO ALL OF THE COASTS AND
VLYS AND MAY EVEN CLIMB UP THE COASTAL SLOPES. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOCAL DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING ESP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL EACH DAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7.

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY AND DRY NW FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS
PLACE. RISING HGTS WILL SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER SOME AND WILL KICK
UP TEMPS SOME. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF (WEAK) OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING
UP MONDAY AND THIS WILL FURTHER SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER AS WELL AS
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1705Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A RATHER
PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH STRATUS RETURNING TO COASTAL TAF SITES ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS RETURN IS LOW.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU THIS EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. IFR CIGS COULD RETURN +/- 3 HOURS OF
CURRENT 08Z FORECAST.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/830 AM...

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS (NORTH AND WEST OF POINT SAL).

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDS REMAINING BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI.

A LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAK ON THURSDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY.



&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...KJ

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