Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 241153 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AWAY FROM
THE COAST. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HAPHAZARD CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A VERY WEAK INVERSION...AND AN UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
KERN COUNTY LATE LAST EVENING...AND WEAKENED TO JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THEY DRIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN MTNS OF VTU
AND NWRN L.A. COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. A FEW GAUGES IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF L.A. COUNTY REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN...ALL LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER WAS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE NRN MTN SLOPES AND ACROSS EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SKIES TO
AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...AS SOME STRATCU DEVELOPS
ONCE THERE IS SOME DAYTIME HEATING. MAX TEMPS MAY BE UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TODAY...WITH THE MOST WARMING EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS. HOWEVER...TEMPS STILL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. EXACTLY
HOW ORGANIZED OF A MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK BECOMES IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT THE WRF SUGGESTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH
MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH TUE. MAX
TEMPS MAY EDGE UP A BIT ON MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WED. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
TROFFINESS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND
DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND
FRI...SO EXPECT WARMING EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DAY
TO DAY REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS...AT
LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SAT...BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY SLOWLY...SO THE WEATHER
ON SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT ON FRI.


&&

.AVIATION...

24/1130Z

AT 0826Z AT KLAX THERE WAS A WEAK 3000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 3400 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAFS A WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL BRING MORNING
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO MOST COASTAL AND VLY SITES AND A VFR BKN
STRATA CU LAYER TO THE VLY SITES AND A SCT LAYER TO THE CSTL SITES
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD COVER MORE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

KLAX...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL LAST UNTIL 20Z AND THERE IS 30 PERCENT CHC OF SCT CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBUR...DECENT CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHORT LIVED SCT CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

24/300 AM

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MARINE FORECAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITION EXPECTED.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

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