Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 231846
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1145 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...MARINE LYR DEPTH HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
1000` BUT NO CLOUDS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION. EXPECT
THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS GRADIENTS TREND A BIT
MORE OFFSHORE. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY, AT LEAST FOR COAST AND
VALLEYS AS AN EDDY CIRCULATION SPINS UP ACROSS THE SO CAL BIGHT
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO
FORM A VERY SHALLOW LOW CLOUD LAYER WITH DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
COOL A COUPLE DEGREES FRI, SO STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMEST
VALLEYS STILL IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.

WILL PROBABLY BE SEEING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS IN
THE SBA AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A VERY WARM SUNDOWNER WITH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 90S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. EXPECTING THE MARINE CLOUDS TO
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LITTLE INLAND PENETRATION...SO
ALL THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KSBA THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MARINE CLOUDS REACHING THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...23/0900 AM

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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