Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 290554 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
955 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RATHER QUIET WX THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF
MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN CA FROM THE S.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WELL OFF OF BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE NIGHT AS WELL...WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DRIFT E THRU THU THEN MOVE INTO CA THU
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN CA BY
LATE FRI THEN DRIFT E IN AZ BY SAT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO NRN CA. VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOSTLY MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU INTO SAT MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ALL AREAS FOR SAT AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE UPPER TROFFINESS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VLY AND N SLOPES OF THE SAN
GABRIELS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF L.A. COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. ANY
RAINFALL ACROSS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AMOUNT TO 0.10 INCH OR LESS
OVERALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS INTO FRI...WITH
GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
INCREASES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL FOR THU...THE FALL TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR THE EXTENDED...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON SUNDAY...AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. NEAR THE SURFACE...VARYING AMOUNTS
OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE FLOW
LIKELY ON SUNDAY...THEN A MORE DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND OFFSHORE FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY THEN EXHIBIT
A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY REBOUND
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0550Z.

AT 0445Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 800 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES C.

HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 06Z TAFS...EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KPRB...WHERE THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXTENSIVE
MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS THRU THU
EVENING.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU NIGHT...ALTHO THERE IS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AFT 08Z THU NIGHT.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HI
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THU EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...28/800 PM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY WESTERN PORTION FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RAT
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET/SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES




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