Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 242310
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
510 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

St. Louis (KSTL) has tied the record high temperature of 74
degrees for this date set back in 1966. (Please see RERSTL for
official updates).

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A record breaking warm day across the region with both Columbia and
Quincy setting new record highs for the date(Please see RERCOU and
RERUIN for official). A gusty southwest wind combined with relative
humidity values between 25 and 30 percent to produce fire weather
conditions very near Red Flag Warning criteria in central and
northeast Missouri.

On the surface map this afternoon, a cold front stretches from north
central Wisconsin through central Iowa and extreme northwest
Missouri to southwest Kansas. This front is expected to move across
the CWA tonight with a wind shift to the northwest, an increase in
mid level cloud cover and a chance of a sprinkle or two. Skies
should quickly clear on Saturday and despite the front and wind
shift, temperatures will remain above normal this weekend with highs
in the middle 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and
40s.

CVKING

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Temperatures will moderate back into the middle and perhaps upper
60s early next week as 500mb heights rise across the middle of
the CONUS and a southwest wind increases in the wake of surface
high pressure. The next chance of any measurable rain will be with
a weakening upper level disturbance that will slide across the
region on Wednesday. Developing northwest flow behind this weak
system should keep temperatures cooler, but still above normal
with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s to end the work week and
the month of November.

Looking ahead it appears above normal temperatures will continue
into the first week of December. St. Louis University CIPS Extended
Analog Guidance has a strong signal for above normal temperatures
stretching from Texas all the way to Wisconsin.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. A cold front
currently over northwest MO will pass through UIN in the next
couple of hours and through the rest of the TAF sites late this
evening into the early overnight hours. The front will bring
enhanced mid-level cloudiness along with a wind shift to the WNW.
While a sprinkle can`t be ruled out, think sites should remain dry
through the period. Skies will clear out on Saturday with WNW
winds continuing.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR conditions will continue. A cold front currently over
northwest MO will move through around 06Z, bringing a wind shift
to the WNW. Otherwise, expect mid-level cloudiness to persist
tonight but skies will clear out on Saturday with WNW winds
continuing.

KD

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Record High Temperatures for Nov 24 as of 300 PM

STL...74 2017 and 1966
COU...74 2017 (Previous 70 in 1966)
UIN...71 2017 (Previous 69 in 1931)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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