Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLSX 042340
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT THAT IS
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND IS BEING REINFORCED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED AND CROSSED NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MCV AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHIELD IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND INCREASE
POPS IF THEY CAN FOCUS INTO A LINE/CLUSTER.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA IN
CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND PROPOGATING ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE
MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES...MASS FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
UTILIZED THE BULLSEYE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
WYOMING WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AID IN REINTENSIFYING THE LOW LEVEL JET
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...BUT THE MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM TOTAL QPF FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 1 INCH IN THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TO AROUND 3
INCHES FROM INTERSTATE 70 AND POINTS SOUTH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR WITH TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS I STATED
YESTERDAY...THE GROUND HAS RECOVERED SOME FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL
OF JUNE AND EARLY JULY AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES OVER
24 HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS. HAVE COORDINATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 12Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS THIER ATTENTION TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE ENSUES.

FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRAVEL FAR AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE
REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

INCORPORATING THE LATEST TRENDS INTO THE EXITING FORECAST...LOOKS
LIKE THIS EVENING WILL BE QUIET AT THE TAF SITES WITH EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN AND TSRA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. HAVE FOLLOWED PREVIOUS PACKAGE TREND
OF KEEPING THUNDER NOT MENTIONED FOR THIS NEXT ROUND WITH COU AND
THE STL METRO SITES ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
NEXT ROUND, BUT THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS. UIN SHOULD LARGELY MISS OUT ON THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN ALTHOUGH DECENT CONSENSUS INDICATES SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AROUND 12Z THERE. IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A BREAK
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME LATE MORNING AT COU OR EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AT STL METRO SITES WITH THE NEXT ROUND, PROBABLY SCATTERED TO
BEGIN WITH, MOVES IN SEVERAL HOURS LATER. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. VFR CONDITONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SHOULD BE QUIET AND VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME TSRA MOVES IN. A
THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN IT EXITS AND A
NEW, INITIALLY MORE SCATTERED, ROUND DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THRU THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES
     MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE.
     GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE
     IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.