Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 231524
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING OVER PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 30KT THIS MORNING...EVEN UNDER BETTER LATE
MORNING MIXING CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. GUSTS IN THE LOWER BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC MAY REACH
30 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A
POTENTIAL BRIEF INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
MARINE UPDATE...KCS







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