Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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685
FXUS63 KMKX 230800
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
300 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Dense fog will affect south central and portions of southeast
Wisconsin this morning as the dense cirrus thins from the west.

A strong 165 knot upper jet on the back side of a digging trough
over the northern plains will kick a shortwave over the mid
Mississippi Valley north, forming an upper low over eastern Iowa
and northern Illinois tonight. This very dynamic system will lift
a low north across Indian today, then intensify as it approaches
Sault Ste Marie Michigan late tonight.

Initially the band of light rain over the far southeast should
push just to the east, but then rain chances will increase this
afternoon and early evening, before much of the area is covered.

Northwest winds will be on the increase tonight as colder air is
drawn into southern Wisconsin.

Tuesday and Tuesday night - Confidence...Medium
A nasty period setting up with strong low vicinity of northern
lower MI with tight pressure gradient across the area. A cold
gusty wind driven rain expected with temperatures mostly in the
40s and wind chills likely remaining in the 30s for much of the
day. The low slowly pulls away Tuesday evening with POPS becoming
trimmed to the eastern CWA. Some wet flakes cannot be ruled out
towards the end of the event but all in all soundings look
supportive of rain for the duration. Colder and more snow
conducive soundings appear to arrive after column has dried out
later Tuesday evening. At this time cloud/wind considerations
suggest frost potential limited Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level ridging works in through at least Wednesday night ahead
of the next trough riding into the northern Plains. A good deal
of waa evolves ahead of the surface/850 low that spins up to our
north. The GFS is faster on the trailing cold front which suggests
a mid day FROPA with a non-diurnal temp trend. Meanwhile the
ECMWF is slower would keep us in the warm sector all day with peak
925 temps in the 10-13c range. For now will stick with the
blended guidance which suggests a decent rise into the 50s.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Coldest air of the season poised to come rushing in behind the
departed low. 850 temps drop off well down in the single digits
below zero c. Certainly potential for frost/freeze conditions
depending on cloud/wind considerations. Some rain or rain/snow mix
potential associated with some low level troughiness. May even
have to keep an eye on wind trajectories come Sunday as GFS
suggests some lake effect potential.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...The are of light rain over the far southeast
should push just to the east later this morning. Will see LIFR at
times west and north areas, as the high clouds thin.

After visibilities improve mid morning, it should be dry with VFR
conditions for most of the day, though showers are possible by
late afternoon as an upper low develops across northern illinois
tonight. Showers will become likely in the evening and MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop, with some IFR possible east
late.

&&

.MARINE...Light winds are expected today. Northwest winds will
increase tonight into Tuesday though on the back side of a strong
low pressure system expected to develop over lower Michigan as it
heads towards Sault Ste Marie Michigan late tonight. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect late tonight with a Gale Watch Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     051-056>058-062-063-067-068.

LM...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     LMZ643>646.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Tuesday through Sunday...Collar



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