Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 212115
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
ALSO A GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES (UPPER
40S)...CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE COAST (MID TO UPPER 50S). NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...RANGING
FROM MID 70S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA AND UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
HALF. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE COAST) NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING COOL AND DRY
FOR THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...GOING BELOW A QUARTER INCH AT
TIMES. LIFTED INDEX IN THE MID TEENS. VERY STABLE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL. LOWS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE DAILY
MEAN...10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM BEFORE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. OUR
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE COOL AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS FORESEEABLE
WEEK. THERE IS CLOSE PHASING OF THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUTS OUT TO 96
HOURS...BUT THEN A 500 MB RIDGE IS SHOWN BY THE EURO LAGGING BEHIND
THE GFS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LONGITUDE OUT TO 136 HOURS. THERE
IS A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY... ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER
INDICATED AT THE SURFACE AND DRAGGING A FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDES AND MOVES INTO THE CAPE COD REGION BY FRIDAY...AND THE GULF
OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THEY WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR WE NOW HAVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
CUBA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
THE LOW INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
22.00Z TAF ISSUANCES...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND NO
RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
FLOW EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  78  47  75  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   58  79  49  75  53 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  77  60  72  56 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   48  75  41  74  42 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  49  77  42  74  41 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      48  75  43  74  43 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   46  77  43  76  43 /  00  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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