Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 131940 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
140 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS OF AL AND NWFL OUT TO 60
NM AND THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SPREADING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND IN
A FEW CASES UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE COOL AIRMASS...THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
15-25 PERCENT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE DRIEST AIR OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL AL. WHILE HUMIDITY WILL
BE CRITICALLY LOW...OTHER CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET FOR RED FLAG
WARNING ISSUANCE. THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT LOWER RH VALUES TODAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14.18Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 7 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN
SHIFTING MOSTLY EAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS FROM 14.15Z THROUGH EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT UNTIL
NOON TODAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...UPDATED WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPANDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD...DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON FRIDAY...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST.
/13

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND EVOLVES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF WHILE
ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES
QUICKLY EASTWARD AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. AN INITIALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WITH THE 850 MB FLOW INCREASING TO
35-40 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.35 INCHES
SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON MONDAY...ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MLCAPES INCREASE TO 200-500 J/KG ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 0-1 KM
HELICITIES AROUND 200 M2/S2 WILL BE PRESENT...AND GIVEN THAT
INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT HIGHER...WILL INCLUDE MENTION THAT
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING
TO CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION...THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60...THEN
TRENDING WARMER TO MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND
50 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN STATES. ANOTHER UPPER
TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN ADVANCES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT POPS HOWEVER AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN STATES. A LARGE SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF WILL BRING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND TREND GRADUALLY TO THE LOWER 70S ON
FRIDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST AND TREND TO THE MID 40S INLAND/LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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