Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301127 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR conditions through 01.12z. Winds will be mostly
northwest to north at 3 to 7 knots. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/....At the surface high
pressure over the south central plains will continue to slowly build
east over the lower Ms river valley and north central gulf states
through tonight mostly in response to a deep upper trough/low over
the mid Mississippi and Tennessee river valleys early this morning
retreating northward later today and tonight. With this pattern
expect mostly sunny skies and low humidity levels throughout the day
with a cool northerly flow at the sfc mostly early in the day. The
offshore flow will rebuild overnight and early Sat morning mostly
from cool air well inland draining southward to the coast overnight
and early Sat. Todays highs will be near average climbing to the
lower 80s for most locations. For tonight lows will continue to be 2
to 3 degree below seasonal averages due to clear skies and good
radiational cooling...ranging from the lower to middle 50s inland and
the lower to middle 60s along the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...The deep upper level
low centered near IN/western OH early Saturday morning will slowly
lift northward toward the Great Lakes through Sunday. Our forecast
area will remain within a dry west to southwest mid level flow
pattern on the base of the associated trough axis through the
weekend, and we will maintain a dry forecast through Sunday night.
Weak surface ridging will otherwise extend across the Tennessee
Valley and Gulf Coast region this weekend, which will maintain a dry
northerly surface flow pattern over our area. Comfortable afternoons
with fairly low relative humidity and cool mornings will continue
through the weekend with the drier airmass holding over the region.
High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will generally range in the mid
80s. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights should continue to average in
the mid 50s to around 60 over the interior, and in the lower to mid
60s toward the coast, except for readings closer to 70 at the
beaches. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A dry weather pattern should
continue across our forecast area early next week as a zonal flow
pattern or perhaps ridging aloft develops across the central Gulf
Coast region in the wake of the departing upper level low over the
northeastern U.S. and well in advance of the next deepening low
pressure system over the Intermountain West. This next upper low
should lift across the Northern Plains States during the middle to
latter half of the week, with potential for an associated cold front
to progress eastward toward the Mississippi Valley by Thursday.
Medium range solutions do have some differences with the evolution of
the upper air pattern over our forecast area during the middle to
latter half of next week, but the operational GFS and ECMWF offer
little hope for meaningful rain chances through Thursday. The ECMWF
is a little more optimistic with moisture return Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of the approaching front, so will maintain a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast both days.
Temperatures do look to trend back to above seasonal averages next
week, with highs returning in the upper 80s to around 90 inland, mid
80s along the coast, and lows trending upward back into the mid to
upper 60s inland and around 70 to the lower 70s immediate coast by
mid to late in the week. /21

MARINE...A broad surface ridge of high pressure will continue to
slowly build over the north central gulf through early next week as
a deep upper level disturbance over the mid Ms and Tennessee river
valleys drifts north. A moderate northerly wind flow early this
morning with diminish by mid morning followed by a light northwest
flow late in the day. a light to moderate northerly flow mostly
overnight and early in the morning is expected each day through
early next week. A light onshore flow mostly in the form of a
seabreeze will develop each afternoon beginning Sat continuing
through early next week. 32/ee


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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