732
FXUS64 KMOB 082101
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

An active weather period is expected through Friday. A line of
storms will develop across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and
evening and move southeast through overnight into Thursday as a
shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley. The line will weaken
Wednesday morning before potentially intensifying again during the
afternoon hours. The main threat with these storms will likely
remain to the north and east of our area. However, the atmosphere
will become very unstable by the afternoon with MLCAPE values over
2000 J/Kg and deep layer shear values over 40 knots. The lack of
strong forcing and the presence of a mid level warm layer will
likely prevent strong storms from developing. However, any
convection will have to closely monitored through the day as it
could quickly become severe if any storms area able to punch
through the warm layer aloft.

The next, more significant, severe threat develops during the late
evening on Thursday. Another shortwave moves across the southern
plains Thursday afternoon with thunderstorms developing across the
Arklatex region. These storms are expected to merge into a cluster
of storms (an MCS) and move eastward along the stalled frontal
boundary across northern portions of the area. Instability values
will remain high overnight in advance of these storms due to very
steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8c/km. In addition,
some near term models are developing a strong rear inflow jet
punching into the backside of the MCS. All these factors lead to the
threat of damaging wind gusts some of which could be significant
with gusts to 75 mph. The greatest chance of seeing damaging winds
will be across northern portions of the area where SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk due to the significant wind gust threat. Large hail
will also be a threat due to the strong instability and steep lapse
rates. The tornado threat is on the low end due to weaker low level
shear and straight line hodographs. The hail and tornado threat
would be enhanced with any storms that are able to develop ahead of
the main line of storms. The severe threat ends by mid morning on
morning as the cold front moves southeast across the area.

Temperatures remain warm on Thursday with highs in the upper and low
90s inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast. Cooler on Friday
with highs in the low to mid 80s. /13

&&

.SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

As the upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast Friday evening
moves off, an upper ridge over the Southern Plains shifts east over
the Southeast ahead of a eastward moving closed low over the Desert
Southwest. Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave
energy moving over the Southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting
into Tuesday before the positively tilted upper low passes north of
the forecast area. The cold front which stalled over the Gulf of
Mexico moves north as a warm front over the Southeast, with the
latest guidance advertising the front remaining south of the I-20
corridor through Wednesday, before moving back south of the coast
Wednesday night.

Taking a closer look at weather for the period, south of the warm
front, guidance is advertising SBCapes rising into the 2000-3000J/kg
range. Add in good wind shear (Bulk wind shear topping out between
50 and 60kts Monday night into Tuesday), and an increased risk of
severe weather returns to the forecast area. In addition to possible
strong to severe storms, will need to monitor for water issues, with
the good overrunning of the warm front, training cells, and a longer
period of rain. Guidance has been inconsistent with the placement
and strength of the ingredients the last two days, will need to
monitor for now.

Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms through most of this
portion of the forecast. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s Saturday drop into the mid 70s to around 80 for Monday, then
rise into the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures in the
mid 50s to around 60 Friday and Saturday nights gradually rise into
the low 60s to near 70 for Tuesday night.
/16

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of
the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours
near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze
circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday,
allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday
and into Saturday. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  69  85  59  83  61  80 /  10  20  50  50   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   76  86  72  82  63  82  64  79 /  10  20  50  60   0   0   0  10
Destin      76  84  74  82  65  81  66  80 /  10  20  40  60   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   71  88  68  85  55  82  56  82 /  10  50  70  60   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  71  90  66  83  55  81  56  80 /  20  40  70  30   0   0   0  10
Camden      71  88  65  82  55  79  55  80 /  20  60  70  40   0   0   0   0
Crestview   71  89  69  85  57  83  55  82 /  10  20  50  70   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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