Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 062011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
311 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A PRONOUNCED OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DUAL CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE AREAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA. LONG WAVE RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH
IS LEADING TO DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST WITH LOW 80S EXPECTED FOR THE
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT
THE BEACHES. 05/RR

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES EAST AND SETS
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE AXIS OF AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO DEEP INTO
THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES MORE TO THE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND REMAINS RAIN-FREE DUE TO LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING HIGH LEVEL RIDGE. BY MONDAY...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...MID LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE
EVOLVING HIGHER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH MODIFIED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS TO ~ 1.3") TO INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 50S INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT MODIFY INTO THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 BEACHES BY MONDAY
NIGHT. DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. /10

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MODIFIED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESULTS IN A
CHANCE OF DAILY STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEXT WEEK. SUMMER-LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 83 TO
88 INTERIOR TO LOWER 80S BEACHES. LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHT-TIME
LOWS...REMAINING WARM AND MUGGY. /10

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES SOUTH. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST. CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION. 05/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  81  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   57  79  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      61  78  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   51  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  51  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      51  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   51  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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