Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 302059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LIGHT POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG FORMING LATE TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO
2 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE PUSHING
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM 62 TO 67 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 68 TO 73 ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES. /22


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL LACKING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
30.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS (~2000 TO 2500 FEET) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 01.10Z. CEILINGS
OVER THE MOBILE AND BROOKLEY AIRPORTS SHOULD LOWER TO THE IFR
CATEGORY (~800 FEET) AFTER 01.10Z. AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE PENSACOLA AIRPORT THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3 TO 5 SM) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES (~2 SM) POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KMOB. IT WILL BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  88  71  88  73 /  05  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   71  85  73  87  74 /  05  20  10  40  40
DESTIN      72  85  77  86  75 /  05  20  10  30  40
EVERGREEN   63  89  67  90  70 /  05  20  10  40  50
WAYNESBORO  62  89  69  88  71 /  05  20  20  50  50
CAMDEN      62  89  67  90  71 /  05  05  10  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  88  67  90  71 /  05  20  10  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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