Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 110929
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODEST SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING MAINLY AFFECTS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHILE THE EXITING UPPER TROF BRINGS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION BUT OTHERWISE REMAINING NEAR 2.0-2.2 INCHES OVER THE
REMAINING AREA. CONVECTION YESTERDAY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE/SURFACE
TROF AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OLD
BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE. A SIMILAR SURFACE TROF AND 850 MB THETA-E
PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ALBEIT SOMEWHAT WEAKER GIVEN THE
CHANGING UPPER PATTERN AND ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINS A SYNOPTIC SCALE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE INTERIOR AREA WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE...AND
INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW
FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR LINGERING CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE LOWS.
/29

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WE NOTED THE GFS PROGNOSTIC CHARTS SHOW
A POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE PATTERN. A 500 MB RIDGE WITH A CLOSED
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT OF 5940 M REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE OZARKS REGION
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES SATURDAY.
THE ALIGNMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH A DEEP WAVENUMBER 5 TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH AND MUCH SHORTER WAVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION ON ITS EASTERN FRINGE. THE
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HERE MOST AFTERNOONS...CAPES ABOVE
1500 AND OFTEN OVER 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX GENERALLY AROUND -4
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. CLOUD COVER WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN AS NIL AROUND SUNRISE QUICKLY BECOMING SCATTERED
AROUND MID MORNING...ALLOWING THE HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN
ALLOWING CONVECTION TO GET STARTED.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION NEAR THE COAST...BUT SUNDAY AND MOST OF EARLY NEXT
WEEK IT WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REACH OF THE SEABREEZE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HOT AND
HUMID WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE
COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL FROM
AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDEX
AROUND 101 TO 102 SO WON`T MENTION IT IN THE ZONE PRODUCTS JUST YET.
/77

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
EXTENDED. THE GFS AND EURO SURFACE FEATURES ARE REMARKABLY CLOSE
PHASED FROM INITIALIZATION OUT TO 144 HR. AFTER TAU 144...THINGS GET
A BIT MORE SCRAMBLED. NONETHELESS WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER THAT IT IS A
WAIT-AND-SEE SITUATION. WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO WHAT IS HAPPENING
WITH A COOLING TREND MENTIONED IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES...OUR
OZARK AREA RIDGE WOULD DEFLECT THE COOLER AIR FROM OUR REGION KEEPING
IT NORTH AND US IN THE 90S DURING OUR MID WEEKDAYS THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER EVEN WITH THAT RIDGE BEING IN PLACE...OUR AREA COULD SEE THE
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES ON ITS PERIPHERY AND WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY... WE THINK IT WISE TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH COVERAGE MOST FOCUSED NEAR THE SEABREEZE. AFTER ALL THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THAT UPPER RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS IT WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK AS
LOWER HEIGHTS DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IF THAT HAPPENS THE TEMPERATURE
COULD SHOW A SLIGHT DIP AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD CONTINUE.
BUT FOR NOW...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE
COAST...UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S COAST. /77

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING AND WILL HAVE A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 18-22Z AT THE TAF SITES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.  WIND
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  72  92  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   92  76  90  77  93 /  40  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  76  86  78  91 /  50  20  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  92  70  96 /  30  10  30  20  20
WAYNESBORO  94  69  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
CAMDEN      93  71  94  72  96 /  20  10  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  70  92  71  96 /  50  20  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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