Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 302331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...As a line moves east of the area, LIFR/IFR
CIGS/VISBYS will rise to general VFR over the area. With the rain
received over the area, as skies clear, am expecting a drop in
VISBYS due to fog overnight, with a good chance of LIFR level
VISBYS in dense fog over a good portion of the area. After this
fog burns off in the morning, general VFR level CIGS/VISBYS for
the day Friday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/... Ongoing strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms east of the Alabama River will continue to
move east this evening, with the thunderstorms exiting the eastern
portion of the forecast area between 10 pm and midnight. Isolated
to scattered rain showers in the wake of the line of
thunderstorms and along a weak cold front approaching the region
from the northwest will linger through this evening, and then
finally move east of the forecast are by late tonight as the front
passes through. Skies will clear on Friday followed by sunny
skies and continued above normal temperatures.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 52 to 57 degrees, and
around 60 degrees along the beaches. High temperatures Friday will
range from 78 to 83 degrees inland areas, with mid 70s along the
beaches. /22

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Upper riding
builds over the area through Saturday as a trough digs over the
southwestern states. This results in dry weather with above normal
temperatures. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to
mid 80s in most areas. The ridge begins to move eastward on Sunday
as the strong shortwave and an associated sfc low move east.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the area late in
the day on Sunday with the better chances coming Sunday night. /13

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...As this system ejects
northeast Sunday night into Monday it will take on a neutral to
slightly negative tilt. Based on the position of the upper
shortwave and associated sfc low, the central Gulf Coast will be
in a favorable position for seeing strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday. Deep layer wind fields along with
instability levels will set the stage for all modes of severe
storms. Strong forcing along with slow movement will also lead the
potential of very heavy rain. This will definitely bear watching
over the next few days. A dry period follows on Tuesday into early
Wednesday. The next system approaches on Wednesday as northern
stream trough moving across the Ohio Valley sends a cold front
southward toward the Gulf Coast. This will bring the next chance
of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

MARINE...Moderate southerly wind flow will shift west to northwest
overnight and diminish to 10 to 15 knots. Southerly winds redevelop
over the weekend and building by early next week as another upper
system approaches from the west. /22


AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.



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