Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 042044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
244 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...High clouds and continued warm temperatures are the
main story for today`s weather. A stray mountain shower is
possible as cumulus form on the terrain this afternoon, but little
moisture will make it to the ground. Expect light winds through
sunset and overnight.

On Thursday a frontal system will provide the forcing for
widespread thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Storms
will begin forming around noon, and continue through the evening
hours. Gusty winds and lightning will be the primary threats, but
brief heavy rains and hail are possible in the stronger cells.
There will be more instability tomorrow than with previous systems
this spring, so stay weather aware if you have outdoor plans. Warm
temperatures will continue one more day before cooler air moves in
overnight into Friday.

Friday and Saturday a close upper low pressure system will be
trekking its way across the southwest U.S. and Great Basin. It`s
possible some wrap around moisture from this low will make its way
into Lemhi county and southwest Montana. If it does expect
generally light amounts. The biggest potential impact for Fri and
Sat will be the development of EAST WINDS across western Montana.
A strong surface high pressure in central Montana will produce
increasing pressure gradients for easterly winds. This is a
favorable pattern for Flathead Lake to receive some enhancement of
these east winds and impact the lake with some INCREASING WAVES each

The pattern becomes a little more active starting Sunday and
Monday. A weather disturbance will push its way through the region
bringing scattered rain showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday next week some models are hinting at cooler
temperatures and showery conditions with a trough developing over
the region. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with
this solution.


.AVIATION...High level clouds will continue to stream over the
area this afternoon and overnight ahead of tomorrow`s frontal
system. KBTM will see some gusts to around 20 knots, but other
areas should keep light and variable winds. Mountain-based
cumulus can be seen on satellite imagery, and these will continue
to form over the terrain until after sunset. Although some may
turn to light showers, terminals in valleys should stay dry for
the most part. A lightning strike or two in the vicinity of KMSO
and KGPI cannot be totally ruled out, but looks unlikely.
Thunderstorms are likely for tomorrow afternoon.



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