Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 272004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
204 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...Weather patterns typical for springtime will
continue to impact the northern Rockies through the middle of next
week. What occurs this time of year and what is anticipated the
next week or 10 days is a trough of low pressure develops along
the coast. This trough begins to split and result is an upper
level close low pressure system forms anywhere from central Idaho
or as far south as the 4 corners area. The upper low then
circulates eastward.

TUESDAY will be a pretty nice day though temperatures will be at
or slightly below normal around 50 to the lower 50s. Later
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY morning the next in a series of closed
low systems will impact the northern Rockies. The main upper low
will split southward, however there will be a decent short wave
that will impact the I-90 corridor southward with the best
potential for most precip concentrated in Lemhi county through
Southwest Montana. Snow levels should drop enough that snow
accumulations, especially overnight, are likely over Lost Trail
Pass, Homestake Pass and Georgetown Lake. It`s not out of the
question Butte/Anaconda could receive some accumulating snows
Thursday night.

This closed low will move east of the region FRIDAY afternoon or
evening and a weak ridge will develop and bring a nice spring day
to the region SATURDAY with temps perhaps in the mid to upper 50s.

Once again starting SUNDAY, models are showing yet again another
closed low develop over the west but this one looks like most
energy/precip will stay south. However, expect unstable and
cooler air over the region to bring scattered rain showers.
Graupel showers are likely given the colder air aloft.

Again, a brief break in the active weather pattern expected next
TUESDAY, Apr 4th, before the far extended models show another
closed low feature. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty
and low confidence with location or intensity of that system.

Temperatures through the middle of next week will struggle to
reach normals in the mid 50s except on the nice spring days
expected Tuesday and Saturday. Otherwise, plan for highs in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.


.CLIMATE...There has not been a high temperature at 60 or above in
all of March so far for Missoula, Montana. It looks like this
won`t occur this week. The last time there was not a 60 degree day
in all of March for the Missoula site was in 2008, and before
that, 1989.


Scattered rain showers will continue to impact the terminals until
approximately 28/0300Z, then isolated showers will prevail in the
vicinity of KMSO and KSMN through tonight. These afternoon showers
will keep persistent low cloud decks and mountain obstructions for
the rest of today, with occasional reduced visibility and wind
gusts with stronger showers. In addition, periods of gusty winds
around 20 kts are possible at the TAF sites through early evening.



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