Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 262055
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
255 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are anticipated to continue across the Northern
Rockies through late this evening, particularly across southwest
Montana/Lemhi County Idaho and far northwest Montana. Considering
that the atmospheric moisture is relatively high, most
thunderstorms will produce rainfall. Many of these thunderstorms
have had a history of producing a lot of cloud-to-ground
lightning. Be prepared to take cover with short advanced notice.
Winds will be gusty at times this evening, especially in the
presence of showers and thunderstorms. Much of the shower and
thunderstorm activity is anticipated to diminish quickly after
sunset.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
Wednesday, with the best chance of development over the areas of
northwest Montana and southwest Montana/Lemhi County Idaho. These
storms could begin as early as the morning hours, similar to
today. In addition, isolated showers and thunderstorms will once
again be likely for the rest of western Montana, though confidence
on development is less certain. Thunderstorms that become strong
may produce heavy rain, hail, frequent lightning, and gusty winds,
impacting those outdoors.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease for Thursday and
Friday as we transition to westerly flow. The exception will be
far northwest Montana where lingering moisture and instability
could spawn a few showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday
afternoons. Temperatures will remain warm through the early
weekend.

A broad trough will deepen toward the region over the weekend,
increasing moisture and instability that will promote
showers/thunderstorms for northwest and southwest Montana. Breezy
winds will accompany this system, which may be a fire weather
concern for areas that remain dry. However, details still remain
unclear on the timing and strength of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will be present at times near area terminals,
particularly near KBTM, KSMN, and KGPI, through 27/0300Z. Any
thunderstorm that develops is likely to produce a lot of lightning
in a short amount of time, however most storms have tended to not
last very long (most around an hour or less). Brief gusts to 30
knots are possible in the presence of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
will obscure terrain at times, however terrain obscurations will
be fairly uncommon after 27/0300Z. Flying conditions will calm
after sunset as well.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&

$$



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