Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 182028
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...A weak warm front will shift across Orofino, Pierce
and northwest Montana tonight producing areas of light rain this
evening and overnight. The main area of light rain will gradually
shift northward with time and by Thursday morning be mostly
confined to near the Canadian border. Otherwise, a drier air mass
will become established across the remainder of west central
Idaho, western Montana, and Lemhi County tonight into Thursday.

A very warm southwest flow will prevail over most of the northern
Rockies Thursday with temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees
above normal in southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A moist cold front is expected to cross northcentral Idaho
Thursday evening and then across western Montana and Lemhi County
by early Friday. A wetting rain is expected many areas with
amounts greater than 0.10 and locally up to 0.75 in the
Clearwaters of Idaho. Snow levels will lower to near mountain
pass level...at and above 4000 feet by Friday. Even cooler air
will arrive late Friday and Friday night with snow levels lowering
to many western Montana and Lemhi County valley floors. However,
by the time that happens the precipitation should decrease to just
a few showers with very little or any accumulation expected.

A very moist west to northwest flow should develop late Saturday
and continue through Sunday. Snow levels should rise some, to at
and above 6000 feet by Sunday. Precipitation amounts could be
excessive over the Clearwaters (from Orofino eastward to Montana
border) and higher terrain of northwest Montana with 1 to 4
inches possible. This will produce some local ponding along roads
and fields with small stream rises expected. However, due to
relatively dry antecedent conditions, no significant stream
flooding is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...A moist warm front will impact northern idaho and
northwest Montana this evening and overnight. The main area of
light rain will gradually shift northward with time and by
Thursday morning be mostly confined to near the Canadian border.
Mountain obscurations can be expected within this warm front with
local fog and stratus developing in valleys. Further south, some
patchy fog is possible west central Montana valleys Thursday
morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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