Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 161728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Icing conditions continue across the area this morning with radar
and surface observations showing generally light amounts since
last evening. Pockets of higher returns were embedded in the
lighter areas with larger pocket moving into northeast Nebraska
between KOLU and KBVN at 08Z. An expanding area of precip over
Kansas was also lifting north toward the Nebraska border.

Latest RAP model brings greatest QPF into southeast portion of the
forecast area between 12Z-18Z as surface low and upper closed low
move into eastern Kansas. Temperatures are expected to climb above
freezing in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by late morning
into the early afternoon which should limit ice accumulations in
those areas during that time. Precip begins to then diminish by
mid afternoon into the evening as system moves east of the area
with a baroclinic band setting up across northeast Nebraska. Still
not much cold air available for this system with snowfall expected
to be quite limited on the backside through the evening as it
tracks rapidly towards the lower Great Lakes region. Most of the
precip should be east of the area by 06Z with trailing upper
trough helping to kick mid level moisture eastward through 12Z.

Warming trend begins for the area on Tuesday with well above
normal temperatures by Wednesday for a welcomed January thaw.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Progressive amplified westerly flow looks to continue through the
extended period.

The warming trend for the area continues through the remainder of
the work week and into the weekend although the chance of more
precipitation returns by late Friday and over the weekend as a
series of upper level waves roll through the region. Temperatures
are expected to be warm enough for mainly rain during the day
periods with periods of freezing rain possible at night in some
locations as lows drop to just below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Mosaic radar data as of 1715z indicate the primary deformation
axis of the mature synoptic cyclone from central IA to n-cntrl KS.
This feature will continue to pivot northeast this afternoon with
freezing rain eventually mixing with sleet and snow before
changing over all light snow at KOFK by late afternoon. At KOMA
and KLNK, more continuous rain will transition to rain showers or
drizzle as the deformation axis shifts north. IFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites through 17/06z, before ceilings and
visibilities begin to improve from west to east across the area
late tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-032>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030-031.

IA...Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead



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