Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 011142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

GRADUALLY ENDING OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING.

UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS
DRIFTING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VORT LOBES
ROTATING AROUND LOW CENTER AND DEFORMATION ZONE ACTIVITY WAS LEADING
TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
LOW BEGINS FILL AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS IOWA. DECREASING
FORCING AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SUGGESTS COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE SEEN IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TODAY.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO TRANSLATE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST
IOWA REGION AT MID DAY MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

THEN ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

THUS BESIDES FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...AND IN OUR SOUTH MONDAY...WILL
HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. WITH THE
TENDENCY TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND A POTENTIAL
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 50S ALL AREAS.
MORE SUNSHINE IN MUCH OF OUR AREA MONDAY SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 60S
LOOK ON TRACK. THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A REBOUND IN MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL FOCUSING IN ON AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH UPPER LOWS GRADUALLY
FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY. IN THE MIDDLE...RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TO OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN
SOLIDLY POINTS TO DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEK.

FINER DETAILS IN GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE TRYING TO DRIFT THROUGH RIDGE AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...TRIGGERING A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HERE. HAVE A
HARD TIME BELIEVING ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
BACKGROUND OMEGA PATTERN...BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. SO
WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK
AND AVERAGE THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z AS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK EAST AND WEAKEN. UNTIL THEN IFR TO
MVFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR ALL THREE
SITES. VSBY HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY GOOD SINCE 06Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT


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