Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 071102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

TOPIC OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS
INUNDATED MOST OF SRN IA/SERN NEB/ERN KS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO CNTRL OK. SMOKE DISPERSION
GUIDANCE PER LATEST NAM-4KM ADVERTISE THE VENTILATION RATE WILL
REMAIN POOR THRU THIS MORNING THEN FAIR BY THIS AFTN WITH TRANSPORT
WINDS MAKING A GRADUAL TURN FROM N TO NE AROUND 15KT. GIVEN
THIS...SUSPECT SMOKE OBSCURATION WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE SRN CWA UNTIL MIXING LYR HGTS INCREASE
THIS AFTN.

REGARDING PCPN...MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THE BULK OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE FOUND S/SE
OF THE CWA OVER ERN KS AND MO. PCPN CHANCES THOUGH WILL FINALLY
RETURN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN COMBINATION OF STOUT 310K
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADVECTION WORK IN TANDEM INDUCING
ACTIVITY THE CWA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AS WELL WITH
PWS VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2". HOWEVER...WITH MAXCAPE VALUES
SUGGESTING INSTABILIY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST...ANY TSTMS
ACTIVITY SHOW BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN MODELS PROG THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE AROUND THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ECM/GFS CONSISTENT LAST COUPE RUNS SHOWING LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND...BUT ONLY TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN TOKEN POPS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MVFR FOG AND HAZE SHOULD ONLY AFFECT TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN


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