Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1136 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Low pressure over the western Dakotas at 19Z will track eastward
overnight pulling a cold front through much of the region by
Sunday morning. Cooler air will spread into the area on Sunday
behind the front with highs expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than today, mainly across northern parts of the area.
Surface high pressure then moves across the region for Sunday into
Monday with the cooler temperatures remaining over the area.

Upper ridge axis over the central U.S. begins to flatten by
Tuesday as weak short wave energy enters the region from the west.
System amplifies over the central plains by Tuesday night with an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms for the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Rain chances continue for Tuesday night into early Wednesday as
the system moves through the area with upper ridge building into
the region again behind the trough into Friday. Some uncertainties
show up between models in the Friday and Saturday time frame
however. 12Z ECMWF and GEM hold the ridge into Friday night
before bringing next trough into the region from the west, while
GFS brings a strong wave into southern Canada already during the
day on Friday. Some small isolated PoPs currently in for late in
the forecast period on Saturday but adjustments likely with later
model runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF cycle with
southerly surface winds becoming north by Sunday late morning.
Have continued the mention of low level wind shear through the
early morning hours as well.




LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.